Papabile

Template:Short description Template:Title language Template:Distinguish Template:Use dmy dates Template:Politics of Vatican City Template:Italian language

{{#invoke:Lang|lang}} (Template:IPAc-en Template:Respell, Template:IPAc-en Template:Respell,<ref>Template:Cite Merriam-Webster</ref><ref>"papabile" (US) and Template:Cite dictionary</ref> {{#invoke:IPA|main}}; plural: {{#invoke:Lang|lang}}; Template:Lit) is an unofficial Italian term coined by Vaticanologists and used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man—in practice, always a cardinal—who is thought of as a likely or possible candidate to be elected pope by the College of Cardinals.

In some cases, a cardinal who is considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} is elected pope. Among the {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} cardinals who have been elected pope are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII) in 1939, Giovanni Montini (Paul VI) in 1963, Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI) in 2005, Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Francis) in 2013, and Robert Francis Prevost (Leo XIV) in 2025. However, at times the College of Cardinals elects a man who was not considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, those who were elected pope though not considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} were Angelo Roncalli (John XXIII) in 1958, Albino Luciani (John Paul I) in August 1978, and Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II) in October 1978.

The list of {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} changes as cardinals age. For instance, Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} until he retired from his see upon reaching 75 years of age in 2002. A famous saying is: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal."<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

TerminologyEdit

The term {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} is at least as old as the 15th century, since it is found in the {{#invoke:Lang|lang}}.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref>

In Italian, the word {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} is also used in non-church contexts. This includes usage in reference to short list candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

{{#invoke:Lang|lang}} elected popeEdit

Francesco Castiglioni (elected as Pius VIII in 1829) was {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} at both the 1823 conclave and at the 1829 conclave.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }} Template:Unreliable source?</ref> Pope Pius VII during his lifetime called Cardinal Castiglioni "Pope Pius VIII"<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12" /><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> and at the 1823 conclave, the cardinal ultimately elected as Pope Leo XII stated that Cardinal Castiglioni would someday be Pope Pius VIII. Castiglioni came close to being elected at the 1823 conclave but lost support due to being identified as being close to Cardinal Ercole Consalvi, a moderate and Secretary of State of the late Pope Pius VII.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12" /><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> Consalvi later died during Leo XII's pontificate and Castiglioni, a {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} once more when Leo XII himself died, was subsequently elected Pope at the 1829 conclave.<ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> His election was facilitated in that of the other {{#invoke:Lang|lang}}, Bartolomeo Pacca was opposed by France while Emmanuele de Gregorio failed to get the support of the majority of the other cardinals. Upon his election, Castiglioni took the name Pius VIII, given that his two immediate predecessors had previously called him by that name.

Gioachino Pecci (elected as Leo XIII in 1878).<ref name="Pirie - Leo 13">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>Template:Unreliable source? The majority of the cardinals who headed to Rome for the 1878 conclave had already decided to support Pecci who was Camerlengo. Pecci was also perceived to be the opposite of the recently deceased Pius IX.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 13" />

Giacomo della Chiesa (elected as Benedict XV in 1914)<ref name="Domenico">Template:Cite book</ref><ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
Eugenio Pacelli (elected as Pius XII in 1939).<ref name="Weigel">Template:Cite journal</ref> Pope Pius XI prior to his death strongly hinted that he favored Cardinal Pacelli as his successor.<ref name="Weigel" /> On 15 December 1937, during his last consistory, Pius XI strongly hinted to the cardinals that he expected Pacelli to be his successor, saying "He is in your midst."<ref>"Medius vestrum stetit quem vos nescetis. Everybody knew what the pope meant". Domenico Cardinale Tardini, Pio XII, Tipografia Poliglotta Vaticana, 1960, p. 105 Template:In lang</ref><ref>Template:Cite book</ref> He had previously been quoted as saying: "When today the Pope dies, you'll get another one tomorrow, because the Church continues. It would be a much bigger tragedy, if Cardinal Pacelli dies, because there is only one. I pray every day, God may send another one into one of our seminaries, but as of today, there is only one in this world."<ref>Template:Cite book</ref>
Giovanni Montini (elected as Paul VI in 1963). Montini had been discussed as a {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time; Cardinal Giuseppe Siri during the discussion about Montini was furious that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumored some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave. John XXIII had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.<ref name="PapalConclave1963">Conclave A.D. 1963 – Election of Pope Paul VI Template:Webarchive. YouTube video. Accessed 19 October 2013</ref>
Joseph Ratzinger (elected as Benedict XVI in 2005).<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> On 2 January 2005, Time magazine quoted unnamed Vatican sources as saying that Ratzinger was a front runner to succeed John Paul II should he die or become too ill to continue as pope. On the death of John Paul II, the Financial Times gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church. In April 2005, before his election as pope, he was identified as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time.<ref name="Time 100">Template:Cite news</ref> At the conclave, "it was, if not Ratzinger, who? And as they came to know him, the question became, why not Ratzinger?"<ref name="goodstein">Goodstein, Laurie and Elisabetta Povoledo. "Before Smoke Rises at Vatican, It's Romans vs. the Reformers," Template:Webarchive The New York Times. 11 March 2013; Ivereigh, Austen. "Does cardinal confusion spell a long conclave?" Template:Webarchive Our Sunday Visitor. 11 March By Austen Ivereigh; excerpt, "A former communications director to the Archbishop emeritus of Westminster (England), Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, he accompanied the cardinal to Rome in 2005 for the funeral of Pope John Paul II and election of Pope Benedict XVI". Retrieved 12 March 2013.</ref> On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots.<ref name="goodstein"/>
Jorge Bergoglio (elected as Francis in 2013).<ref name="businessinsider">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref name="pontifficator">"Choose your own pope – with our interactive Pontifficator" Template:Webarchive. The Guardian. 12 March 2013. Contains descriptions of all 115 cardinal electors, 13 of whom are marked as papabili.</ref><ref name="huffingtonpost.com">Huffington Post Papabile 2013: Top Contenders To Be Next Pope As We Enter Conclave Template:Webarchive. March 10, 2013. Retrieved 15 March 2013.</ref> Bergoglio was a {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} at the 2005 conclave<ref name="National Catholic Reporter">Template:Cite news</ref><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile">Template:Cite news</ref> and was also considered a contender at the 2013 conclave<ref name="businessinsider"/><ref name="pontifficator"/><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> due to his being the reported "second-place finisher" at the 2005 conclave.<ref name="businessinsider"/><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> According to John L. Allen Jr., some of the participants in the 2005 conclave who were also participating in the 2013 conclave were "getting another bite at the apple".<ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> Despite this, his election still came as a surprise because some of the commentators who considered him {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} made the observation that there were "compelling reasons to believe that Bergoglio's window of opportunity to be pope has already closed"<ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> and that "his 'moment' seems to be over".<ref name="businessinsider"/>

Robert Francis Prevost (elected as Leo XIV in 2025).<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref> Prevost was a prominent papabile for North America for the 2025 papal conclave.Template:Citation needed He is the first pontiff coming from North America and the first pope born in the United States.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

{{#invoke:Lang|lang}} not electedEdit

Being seen as {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)

Mariano Rampolla, Leo XIII's Cardinal Secretary of State, was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave, only to be vetoed by Kraków Cardinal Jan Puzyna de Kosielsko on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Sarto was elected and became Pius X. One of Pope Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of Catholic monarchs to veto.Template:Efn
Rafael Merry del Val was a widely considered candidate in the 1914 and 1922 conclaves, which eventually elected Benedict XV and Pius XI respectively, although he never garnered enough votes to be in serious contention.<ref name="Weigel" /><ref name="Kertzer" />
Giuseppe Siri was widely expected to be elected pope in the 1958 and 1963 conclaves, and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. On the first of these occasions, Angelo Roncalli, an unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII.<ref name=Princes>Template:Cite magazine</ref><ref name="NCR">Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Template:Cite magazine</ref><ref name=Foreign>Template:Cite magazine</ref>
Giovanni Benelli, Archbishop of Florence and the leading liberal candidate, was widely expected to be elected pope in both the August and October 1978 conclaves; in fact, he was defeated in both (albeit narrowly, the second time). In August, a candidate few saw as {{#invoke:Lang|lang}}, Albino Luciani, was elected and became Pope John Paul I – with the support of Benelli himself. In October, another such candidate, Karol Wojtyła, was elected as John Paul II.<ref>Template:Cite magazine</ref><ref>Template:Cite magazine</ref>
Sergio Pignedoli, a towering figure in the church, was Pope Paul VI's closest confidant and widely expected to succeed him. Following the death of Paul VI in 1978, Pignedoli was featured in numerous publications around the world, including on the covers of Time and Newsweek, as a leading contender to be elected pope. In the August 1978 papal conclave, Pignedoli, the progressive candidate, received nearly half of the votes of the cardinal electors. His main opponent was the conservative cardinal Giuseppe Siri of Genova; however, since both were unable to obtain a majority, a compromise candidate emerged, and Albino Luciani was elected as Pope John Paul I. Thirty three days later, following the sudden death of John Paul I, a second conclave convened in October 1978. Pignedoli was again the leading contender for the papacy, but ultimately Karol Wojtyła was elected as Pope John Paul II.<ref>Time Magazine. Recent Events 30 June 1980</ref>
Carlo Maria Martini, Archbishop of Milan from 1980 to 2002 and a Jesuit biblical exegete, was considered to be the most likely successor to John Paul II for much of the 1980s and 1990s but was already suffering from Parkinson's disease by the time the 2005 papal conclave was convened.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Catholic News Service. Article based on diary says German cardinal became pope with 84 votes 23 September 2005</ref><ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
Francis Arinze, Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments and one of John Paul II's principal advisors, was speculated by some media reports as a highly favoured successor to John Paul II but did not garner enough votes in the 2005 papal conclave.<ref name="Donadio">Template:Cite news</ref>
Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan, was considered such a front-runner in the 2013 papal conclave that the Episcopal Conference of Italy had already pre-drafted a press release concerning his election. However, his ties to a corruption probe caused his perception by the fellow cardinals to decline drastically.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Pietro Parolin, Francis's Cardinal Secretary of State, was often considered a moderate option and a viable successor to Francis but did not garner enough votes in the 2025 papal conclave to become pope.<ref name=":0">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Luis Antonio Tagle, Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2020 who was dubbed the "Asian Francis" and seen as the representative of the Catholic Church's progressive wing, was speculated in media reports to be the most likely successor to Pope Francis but did not garner enough votes in the 2025 papal conclave to become pope. He was also a papabile in the 2013 papal conclave that elected Francis.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Non-{{#invoke:Lang|lang}} elected popeEdit

File:Cappella Sistina - 2005.jpg

The 1492 conclave was the first to be held in the Sistine Chapel, the site of all conclaves since 1878

Barnaba Chiaramonti (elected as Pius VII in 1800) was not considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} but emerged as an alternative candidate following months of deadlock. Chiaramonti was well-regarded among many of the cardinals, but tried to dissuade them from electing him since he was content with being a bishop. Cardinal Jean-Sifrein Maury first proposed Chiaramonti as a compromise candidate to break the stalemate.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Annibale della Genga (elected as Leo XII in 1823) was not considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} due to his physical infirmities and the cardinal himself at the conclave tried to discourage the other electors from voting for him. However, he was elected because the conclave received information about secret societies who were perceived to have grown in strength during the {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} period, and some cardinals wanted a quick conclusion to the conclave; his physical condition made some cardinals think that his pontificate would not last long.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12"/>
Bartolomeo Cappellari's (elected as Gregory XVI in 1831) election was unexpected and had been influenced by the fact that the most {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} candidate, Giacomo Giustiniani, had been vetoed, therefore resulting in a deadlock.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Giuseppe Sarto (elected as Pius X in 1903) emerged as an alternative candidate after the veto of Mariano Rampolla.
Achille Ratti (elected as Pius XI in 1922) was elected as a compromise candidate between the conservative faction headed by Rafael Merry del Val and the moderate faction headed by Pietro Gasparri. Gasparri also threw his support behind Ratti and urged his supporters to vote for Ratti.<ref name="Kertzer">Template:Cite book</ref>
Angelo Roncalli (elected as John XXIII in 1958). Some commentators like William Doino dispute the contention that Roncalli was a non-{{#invoke:Lang|lang}} and argue that "[b]y the time of Pius XII's death, in 1958, Cardinal Roncalli 'contrary to the idea he came out of nowhere to become pope' was actually one of those favored to be elected. He was well-known, well-liked, and trusted."<ref name=FirstThings>Template:Cite journal</ref>
Albino Luciani (elected as John Paul I in 1978). Although Luciani was not considered {{#invoke:Lang|lang}}, one of the {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} cardinals, Giovanni Benelli, used his influence to persuade the others to elect Luciani at the conclave.<ref>Time Magazine. In Rome, a Week off Suspense 28 August 1978</ref><ref>Time Magazine. A Swift, Stunning Choice 4 September 1978</ref>
Karol Wojtyła (elected as John Paul II in 1978) was elected as a compromise candidate due to the failure of the leading {{#invoke:Lang|lang}} Giuseppe Siri and Giovanni Benelli to obtain the requisite majority and the only other viable Italian compromise candidate Giovanni Colombo announced to the cardinal-electors at the conclave that he would decline the papacy if elected.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref> Prior to Wojtyła, no non-Italian had been elected Pope since the 1522 conclave that chose the Dutch Pope Adrian VI.