Editing Delphi method (section)

{{Short description|Interactive forecasting method}}{{Futures studies}}The '''Delphi method''' or '''Delphi technique''' ({{IPAc-en|ˈ|d|ɛ|l|f|aɪ}} {{respell|DEL|fy}}; also known as '''Estimate-Talk-Estimate''' or '''ETE''') is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive [[forecasting]] method that relies on a panel of experts.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Dalkey N, Helmer O | year = 1963 | title = An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts | journal = Management Science | volume = 9 | issue = 3| pages = 458–467 | doi=10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458| hdl = 2027/inu.30000029301680 | hdl-access = free }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown BB | title = Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts. | publisher = Rand Corp | location = Santa Monica CA | date = September 1968 | id =  P-3925 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0675981 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Sackman H | title = Delphi assessment: Expert opinion, forecasting, and group process. | publisher = The Rand Corporation | location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-1283-PR | date = 1974 | url =https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0786878 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown T | title = An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting | publisher = The Rand Corporation | location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-944-ARPA | date = 1972 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0777061 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |title=The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications |url=http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |year=1975 | veditors = Linstone HA, Turoff M |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080520015240/http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |location=Reading, Mass. |publisher=Addison-Wesley |isbn=978-0-201-04294-8 |archive-date=2008-05-20 |url-status=dead}}</ref> Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, [[prediction markets]].<ref name="Green_2008" /> 

Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.<ref name="Taylor2020"/><ref name=Moher2010/>

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.<ref name="rw2001">{{cite book | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | author-link2 = George Wright (psychologist) | date = 2001 | chapter = Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique | veditors = Armstrong | title = Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners | series = International Series in Operations Research & Management Science | volume = 30 | pages = 125–144 | location = Boston | publisher = Kluwer Academic Publishers | doi =  10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_7 | isbn = 978-0-7923-7401-5 | chapter-url = https://www3.nd.edu/~busiforc/handouts/Other%20Articles/expertopinions.pdf }}</ref> The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a [[facilitator]] or change agent<ref>{{Cite journal | vauthors = McLaughlin MW |date=1990 |title=The Rand Change Agent Study Revisited: Macro Perspectives and Micro Realities |jstor =1176973 |journal=Educational Researcher |volume=19 |issue=9 |pages=11–16 |doi=10.3102/0013189X019009011 |issn=0013-189X}}</ref> provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stopping criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), and the [[mean]] or [[median]] scores of the final rounds determine the results.<ref name="rw1999">{{cite journal | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | title = The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. | journal = International Journal of Forecasting | date = October 1999 | volume = 15 | issue = 4 | pages = 353–375 | doi = 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7 | s2cid = 10745965 }}</ref> 

Special attention has to be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses and the definition and selection of the experts in order to avoid methodological weaknesses that severely threaten the validity and reliability of the results.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Markmann C, Spickermann A, von der Gracht HA, Brem A | title = Improving the question formulation in Delphi-like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. | journal = Futures & Foresight Science | date = March 2021 | volume = 3 | issue = 1 | pages = e56 | doi = 10.1002/ffo2.56 | s2cid = 225273393 | doi-access = free }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Mauksch S, Heiko A, Gordon TJ | title = Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods. | journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change | date = May 2020 | volume = 154 | pages = 119982 | doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982 | s2cid = 216161197 }} </ref>

Ensuring that the participants have requisite expertise and that more domineering participants do not overwhelm weaker-willed participants, as the first group tends to be less inclined to change their minds and the second group is more motivated to fit in, can be a barrier to reaching true consensus. <ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Shang, Zshida| title = Use of Delphi in health sciences research: A narrative review. | journal = Medicine (Baltimore)| date = Feb 2023 | volume = 102 | issue = 7 | pages = e32829 | doi = 10.1097/MD.0000000000032829 | pmid = 36800594| pmc = 9936053 }}</ref>