Editing Hubbert peak theory (section)

{{Short description|One of the primary theories on peak oil}}
{{Redirect|Hubbert peak|the episode of The West Wing television series|The Hubbert Peak}}
[[File:Hubbert world 2004.svg|thumb|right|300px|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in [[OPEC]] and the [[former Soviet Union]]]]

The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates, and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of [[resource depletion]].

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite; therefore, the rate of discovery, which initially increases quickly, must reach a maximum and then decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.<ref name="Laherrere2005">Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2005 [http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/ASPO2005_Laherrere.pdf]</ref><ref name="wood2003">{{cite web|url=http://www.geo.mtu.edu/svl/GE3320/OIL%20SEMINAR%20jrw.ppt |title=Peak Oil: The Looming Energy Crisis |author=J.R. Wood |publisher=[[Michigan Technological University]] |access-date=2013-12-27}}</ref>  The theory is named after American geophysicist [[M. King Hubbert]], who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.