Editing Scenario planning (section)

{{Short description|Futures studies / Futures techniques method}}
{{other uses|Scenario (disambiguation)}}
{{more citations needed|date=February 2023}}
{{Futures studies}}
'''Scenario planning''', '''scenario thinking''', '''scenario analysis''',<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Palomino |first1=Marco A. |last2=Bardsley |first2=Sarah |last3=Bown |first3=Kevin |last4=De Lurio |first4=Jennifer |last5=Ellwood |first5=Peter |last6=Holland-Smith |first6=David |last7=Huggins |first7=Bob |last8=Vincenti |first8=Alexandra |last9=Woodroof |first9=Harry |last10=Owen |first10=Richard |title=Web-based horizon scanning: concepts and practice |journal=Foresight |date=1 January 2012 |volume=14 |issue=5 |pages=355–373 |doi=10.1108/14636681211269851 |url=https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636681211269851/full/html |access-date=16 May 2021 |issn=1463-6689|url-access=subscription }}</ref> '''scenario prediction'''<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Kovalenko|first1=Igor|last2=Davydenko|first2=Yevhen|last3=Shved|first3=Alyona|date=2019-04-12|title=Development of the procedure for integrated application of scenario prediction methods|journal=Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies|volume=2|issue=4 (98)|pages=31–38|doi=10.15587/1729-4061.2019.163871|s2cid=188383713|doi-access=free}}</ref> and the '''scenario method'''<ref>{{Cite journal|date=2018-01-01|title=The scenario planning paradox|url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328717302537|journal=Futures|language=en|volume=95|pages=33–43|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.006|issn=0016-3287|last1=Spaniol|first1=Matthew J.|last2=Rowland|first2=Nicholas J.|s2cid=148708423 }}</ref> all describe a [[strategic planning]] method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by [[military intelligence]].<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Bradfield|first1=Ron|last2=Wright|first2=George|last3=Burt|first3=George|last4=Cairns|first4=George|last5=Heijden|first5=Kees Van Der|title=The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning|journal=Futures|volume=37|issue=8|pages=795–812|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003|year=2005}}</ref>

In the most common application of the method, analysts generate [[simulation game]]s for [[policy maker]]s. The method combines known facts, such as [[demographics]], [[geography]] and [[mineral reserve]]s, with [[military]], [[politics|political]], and [[Industry (economics)|industrial]] information, and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") trends.

In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment. At [[Royal Dutch Shell]] for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating specific strategies.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|url=https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures|title=Living in the Futures|date=2013-05-01|work=Harvard Business Review|access-date=2018-01-12}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Schoemaker|first=Paul J. H.|date=1993-03-01|title=Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation|journal=Strategic Management Journal|volume=14|issue=3|pages=193–213|doi=10.1002/smj.4250140304|issn=1097-0266}}</ref>

Scenario planning may involve aspects of [[systems thinking]], specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometimes surprising futures (due to non-linear [[feedback loop]]s). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, and unprecedented regulations or inventions.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Mendonça|first1=Sandro|last2=Cunha|first2=Miguel Pina e|last3=Ruff|first3=Frank|last4=Kaivo-oja|first4=Jari|title=Venturing into the Wilderness|journal=Long Range Planning|volume=42|issue=1|pages=23–41|doi=10.1016/j.lrp.2008.11.001|year=2009}}</ref> Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario storylines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Gausemeier|first1=Juergen|last2=Fink|first2=Alexander|last3=Schlake|first3=Oliver|title=Scenario Management|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=59|issue=2|pages=111–130|doi=10.1016/s0040-1625(97)00166-2|year=1998}}</ref> These cases, in which scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, are sometimes referred to as "dynamic scenarios".

Critics of using a subjective and heuristic methodology to deal with uncertainty and complexity argue that the technique has not been examined rigorously, nor influenced sufficiently by scientific evidence. They caution against using such methods to "predict" based on what can be described as arbitrary themes and "forecasting techniques".

A challenge and a strength of scenario-building is that "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process".<ref name="ca0">{{Cite journal|last=Overland|first=Indra|date=2019-03-01|title=The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths|journal=Energy Research & Social Science|volume=49|pages=36–40|doi=10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.018|issn=2214-6296|doi-access=free|bibcode=2019ERSS...49...36O |hdl=11250/2579292|hdl-access=free}}</ref> As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a scenario in which a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more secure cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue.<ref name="ca0"/>