Editing Delphi method (section)

==History==
The name ''Delphi'' derives from the [[Oracle of Delphi]], although the authors of the method were unhappy with the oracular connotation of the name, "smacking a little of the occult".<ref name="Adler">{{cite book | vauthors = Ziglio E | chapter = The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision Making | veditors = Adler M, Ziglio E | date =1996 | title = Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health | publisher = Jessica Kingsley Publishers | chapter-url = https://books.google.com/books?id=jo1Z1JZIrKIC&pg=PA5 | pages = 5 | isbn = 978-1-85302-104-6 }}</ref> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the [[Cold War]] to forecast the impact of technology on [[war]]fare.<ref name=Randwork>{{cite journal | vauthors = Custer RL, Scarcella JA, Stewart BR | title = The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification | journal = Journal of Vocational and Technical Education | volume = 15 | issue = 2 | date = Spring 1999 | url = http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/ejournals/JVTE/v15n2/custer.html | quote = Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey.}}</ref> In 1944, [[Henry H. Arnold|General Henry H. Arnold]] ordered the creation of the report for the [[U.S. Army Air Corps]] on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional [[technology forecasting|forecasting]] methods, such as [[theoretical approach]], [[ Mathematical model |quantitative model]]s or trend extrapolation, quickly became apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by [[Project RAND]] during the 1950-1960s (1959) by [[Olaf Helmer]], Norman Dalkey, and [[Nicholas Rescher]].<ref name = "Rescher_1998">{{cite book | vauthors =Rescher N |title=Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting |date=1998 |publisher=State University of New York Press |location=Albany |isbn=978-0-7914-3553-3}}</ref> It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the [[David Passig#Imen Delphi|Imen-Delphi]] procedure.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Passig D | date = Spring 1997 | title = Imen Delphi: A Delphi Variant Procedure for Emergence | journal = Human Organization: Journal of the Society for Applied Anthropology | publisher = Southern Methodist University | location = Dallas, TX | volume = 56 | issue = 1 | pages = 53–63 | doi = 10.17730/humo.56.1.a3676826366nx556 }}</ref>

Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.

In 2021, a cross-disciplinary study by Beiderbeck et al. focused on new directions and advancements of the Delphi method, including [[Real-time Delphi]] formats. The authors provide a methodological toolbox for designing Delphi surveys including among others sentiment analyses of the field of psychology.<ref name="Beiderbeck_2021">{{cite journal | vauthors = Beiderbeck D, Frevel N, von der Gracht HA, Schmidt SL, Schweitzer VM | title = Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements | journal = MethodsX | volume = 8 | issue = | pages = 101401 | date = 2021 | pmid = 34430297 | pmc = 8374446 | doi = 10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401 }}</ref>