Editing Division of Macarthur (section)

==History==
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The division is named after [[John Macarthur (wool pioneer)|John Macarthur]] and his wife [[Elizabeth Macarthur|Elizabeth]], who were both pioneers of Australia's wool industry. The main products and work in the electorate are in the fruit and vegetable production, lucerne and fodder crops, wine, dairy cattle and horse-breeding.

Macarthur has changed hands regularly over the years as redistributions have favoured different parties. Macarthur was a [[bellwether]] seat from the time of its establishment in 1949 until [[2007 Australian general election|the 2007 election]]—during that 58-year period it was always held by a member of the governing party or coalition. Originally a hybrid urban-rural seat stretching from southwest Sydney to the [[Southern Highlands (New South Wales)|Southern Highlands]], successive redistributions have shrunk the geographical size of the seat due to the rapid growth of the Campbelltown area. In the redistribution prior to the [[2001 Australian federal election|2001 federal election]], Southern Highlands towns such as [[Bowral]] and [[Moss Vale, New South Wales|Moss Vale]] were removed, shrinking the seat to one eighth of its original size and making it an entirely Sydney-based seat. This made the seat notionally [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]] by 1.3%, from the previous 5.6% of the Liberals, prompting Liberal minister and former New South Wales premier [[John Fahey (politician)|John Fahey]] to retire. However, his replacement as Liberal candidate, former [[ultra-marathon]]er, [[Pat Farmer]], achieved an 8.3% swing to retain the seat for the Liberals, actually tallying a primary vote large enough to win without the need for preferences.  He increased the margin from 7 to 9.5% at the [[2004 Australian federal election|2004 election]].<ref name=abc>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/maca/ Macarthur - 2016 federal election guide: Antony Green ABC]</ref><ref name=aec>[http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/macarthur.htm Macarthur guide: AEC]</ref>

Ahead of the [[2007 Australian federal election|2007 election]], a redistribution seemingly consolidated Farmer's hold on the seat; the Liberal majority was boosted to 11.1%.  However, Farmer was nearly defeated in the election, suffering a swing of 10.4%. The swing was spread evenly across the electorate, reflecting its solid mortgage belt character. The swing was particularly large in the heavily mortgaged suburbs of Narellan, Camden and the traditionally more Labor-voting areas of Campbelltown. Farmer's margin was reduced to an extremely marginal 0.7%.  A further redistribution in 2010 made it notionally a Labor seat.  Farmer was defeated for Liberal preselection by Campbelltown mayor [[Russell Matheson]], who was able to retain the seat for the Liberals. Matheson gained a large swing at the [[2013 Australian federal election|2013 election]], increasing the Liberal margin to 11.1 percent. The Liberal margin was reduced to just 3.3 percent in the redistribution prior to the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]],<ref name=abc/><ref name=aec/> and additionally, a ReachTEL poll of 628 voters conducted in Macarthur during the election campaign saw Labor leading the Liberals.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-macarthur-poll-19may2016 |title=19 May 2016 Macarthur poll: ReachTEL 20 May 2016 |access-date=20 May 2016 |archive-date=20 September 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160920131151/https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-macarthur-poll-19may2016 |url-status=dead }}</ref>  At the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]] Labor challenger Mike Freelander took the seat off the Liberals on a swing of just under 12 percent, ending the Liberals' twenty-year hold on the seat and turning it into a safe Labor seat in one stroke. Freelander actually won enough votes on the first count to defeat Matheson without the need for preferences.

Ahead of the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 federal election]], [[Australian Broadcasting Corporation|ABC]] [[psephologist]] [[Antony Green]] listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as [[bellwether]] electorates.<ref>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/bellwethers/ The Bellwether Contests: Antony Green ABC]</ref>