Editing Economic forecasting (section)

==Sources of forecasts==
===Global scope===
The [[Economic Outlook (OECD publication)|Economic Outlook]] is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.<ref>{{Cite web | url=http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/forecastingmethodsandanalyticaltools.htm | title=Forecasting methods and analytical tools - OECD}}</ref> The [[IMF]] publishes the [[World Economic Outlook]] report twice annually, which provides comprehensive global coverage.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Uneven-Growth-Short-and-Long-Term-Factors|title=IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors|website=IMF}}</ref> The IMF and [[World Bank]] also produces Regional Economic Outlook for various parts of the world.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Regional Economic Outlook|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO|access-date=2020-11-22|website=IMF|language=en}}</ref>

There are also private companies such as [[The Conference Board]] and [[Lombard Street Research]] that provide global economic forecasts.<ref>{{Cite web|title=TS Lombard|url=https://www.tslombard.com/|access-date=2020-11-22|website=Economics Politics Markets|language=en}}</ref>

As of April 2024, the [[World Trade Organization]] (WTO) projects a rebound in global merchandise trade, forecasting a growth of 2.6% for the year, and an anticipated increase to 3.3% in 2025, following a 1.2% decline in 2023. During 2023, there was a significant reduction in merchandise exports, which fell by 5% to US$ 24.01 trillion, contrasting sharply with the commercial services sector, which saw a 9% increase in exports to US$ 7.54 trillion. The global GDP is expected to stabilize, maintaining a growth rate of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. From a regional perspective, [[Africa]] is forecasted to experience the highest export growth at 5.3% in 2024, closely followed by the [[Commonwealth of Independent States|CIS region]] at nearly the same rate. Moderate growth is expected in [[North America]], the [[Middle East]], and [[Asia]], with rates projected at 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.4%, respectively, while European exports are anticipated to grow by only 1.7%. Import growth will likely be robust in Asia (5.6%) and Africa (4.4%), with Europe showing almost no growth at 0.1%. Digital services trade remains resilient, reaching US$ 4.25 trillion in exports in 2023, and accounting for 13.8% of global exports of goods and services, with significant growth observed in Africa (13%) and South and Central America and the [[Caribbean]] (11%). Additionally, the WTO has launched the [https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/services_trade_data_hub_e.htm Global Services Trade Data Hub] to provide detailed insights into the evolving landscape of services trade, with a particular focus on digitalization.<ref>{{Cite web |title=WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but warns of downside risks |url=https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news24_e/tfore_10apr24_e.htm |access-date=2024-04-12 |website=www.wto.org |language=en}}</ref><ref>World Trade Organization. (2024). ''Global Trade Outlook and Statistics April 2024''. <nowiki>ISBN 978-92-870-7633-5</nowiki>. Retrieved April 12, 2024, from <nowiki>https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook24_e.pdf</nowiki></ref>

===U.S. forecasts===
The U.S. [[Congressional Budget Office]] (CBO) publishes a report titled "The Budget and Economic Outlook" annually, which primarily covers the following ten-year period.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cbo.gov/publication/49892|title=The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 &#124; Congressional Budget Office|date=January 26, 2015|website=www.cbo.gov}}</ref> The U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors members also give speeches, provide testimony, and issue reports throughout the year that cover the economic outlook.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150710a.htm|title=Speech by Chair Yellen on recent developments and the outlook for the economy|website=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System}}</ref><ref>[http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mpr_default.htm Federal Reserve-Monetary Policy Report-Retrieved July 2015]</ref> Regional Federal Reserve Banks, such as the [[Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis|St Louis Federal Reserve Bank]] also provide forecasts.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Tracking the Recession - St. Louis Fed|url=https://research.stlouisfed.org/recession/|access-date=2020-11-22|website=research.stlouisfed.org}}</ref>

Large banks such as Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase provide economics reports and newsletters.<ref>[https://www.wellsfargo.com/com/insights/economics/ Wells Fargo Economics-Retrieved July 2015]</ref><ref>[https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Satellite?UserFriendlyURL=diguidetomarkets&pagename=jpmfVanityWrapper JP Morgan Chase-Guide to the Markets Q3 2015 - Retrieved July 2015]</ref>

=== European forecasts ===
The European Commission also publishes comprehensive macroeconomic forecasts for its member countries on a quarterly basis - Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Economic forecasts|url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts_en|access-date=2020-11-22|website=European Commission - European Commission|language=en}}</ref>

===Combining Forecasts===
Forecasts from multiple sources may be arithmetically combined and the result is often referred to as a [[consensus forecast]]. Private firms, central banks, and government agencies publish a large volume of forecast information to meet the strong demand for economic forecast data. Consensus Economics compiles the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by a variety of forecasters, and publishes them on a weekly and monthly basis. ''[[The Economist]]'' magazine regularly provides such a snapshot as well, for a narrower range of countries and variables.

Econometric studies have demonstrated that the use of past errors of each original forecast to determine the weights assigned to each forecast in the creation of a combined forecast results in a composite set of forecasts that generally yield to lower mean-square errors compared to either of the individual original forecasts.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bates |first1=J. M. |last2=Granger |first2=C. W. J. |year=1969 |title=The Combination of Forecasts |journal=Journal of the Operational Research Society |volume=20 |issue=4 |pages=451–468 |doi=10.1057/jors.1969.103 }}</ref> However, it has been found that the entry and exit of forecasters can have a substantial impact on the real-time effectiveness of conventional combination methods.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Capistrán |first1=Carlos |last2=Timmermann |first2=Allan |year=2009 |title=Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts |journal=Journal of Business & Economic Statistics |volume=27 |issue=4 |pages=428–440 |doi=10.1198/jbes.2009.07211 |s2cid=116453612 }}</ref> The dynamic nature of the forecasting combination and adjusting weighting techniques is not neutral.