Editing Marginal seat (section)

==Examples==

===Australia===
The [[Australian Electoral Commission]] defines seat margins as follows:<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/Elections.htm|title=Elections – Frequently Asked Questions|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_system/files/jscem/1998_election/sub88.pdf|title=Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters: The Conduct of the 1998 Federal Election|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission|date=12 March 1999}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Winning [[Two-party-preferred vote|2PP vote]]
! Margin
! Classification
|-
| 50 to 56%
| 0 to 6%
| Marginal
|-
| 56 to 60%
| 6 to 10%
| Fairly safe
|-
| 60 to 68%
| 10 to 18%
| Safe
|-
| Over 68%
| Over 18%
| Very safe
|}

====Federal====
Following the [[2022 Australian federal election|2022 federal election]], 51 of the 151 seats in the [[Australian House of Representatives|House of Representatives]] are considered "marginal". The most marginal is the [[Division of Gilmore]] in New South Wales, held by the [[Australian Labor Party|Labor Party]] on a margin of 0.17% against the [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal Party]]. This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.

====New South Wales====
Following the [[2023 New South Wales state election|2023 state election]], 18 of the 93 seats in the [[New South Wales Legislative Assembly]] are marginal seats. The most marginal is [[electoral district of Ryde|Ryde]], held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won by [[Jordan Lane (politician)|Jordan Lane]] by just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MP [[Victor Dominello]]. It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.

====Northern Territory====
Following the [[2024 Northern Territory general election|2024 general election]], eight of the 25 seats in the [[Northern Territory Legislative Assembly]] are marginal seats. The most marginal is [[electoral division of Nightcliff|Nightcliff]], held by the [[NT Greens|Greens]] on a margin of 0.4% against the [[Territory Labor Party|Labor Party]], who lost the seat by just 36 votes.

====Queensland====
Following the [[2020 Queensland state election|2020 state election]], 29 of the 93 seats in the [[Legislative Assembly of Queensland]] are marginal seats. The most marginal is the [[electoral district of Bundaberg|Bundaberg]], held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against the [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National Party]], who lost the seat by just nine votes.

====South Australia====
Following the [[2022 South Australian state election|2022 state election]], 17 of the 47 seats in the [[South Australian Legislative Assembly]] are marginal seats. The most marginal is [[electoral district of Dunstan|Dunstan]], held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leader [[Steven Marshall]], who was also the state's [[Premier of South Australia|Premier]] until this election.

====Victoria====
Following the [[2022 Victorian state election|2022 state election]], 28 of the 88 seats in the [[Victorian Legislative Assembly]] are marginal seats. The two most marginal are [[electoral district of Bass|Bass]] and [[electoral district of Northcote|Northcote]], both of which are held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.2% against the Liberal Party and the [[Australian Greens|Greens]], respectively.

====Western Australia====
Following the [[2021 Western Australian state election|2021 state election]], just five of the 59 seats in the [[Western Australian Legislative Assembly]] are marginal seats. The most marginal is [[electoral district of Churchlands|Churchlands]], held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Liberal Party.

=== Indonesia ===
A marginal electoral district is formed when strong, well known candidates had gathered around in a single electoral district.<ref name=":0">https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4164896/kerasnya-persaingan-dapil-neraka</ref> An electoral district in Indonesia possesses a limited amount of seats to be elected as a member of [[House of Representatives (Indonesia)|House of Representatives]], forcing each candidates to fight hard against one another disregarding any coalition lines to seek votes.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Jo|first=Beni|date=2023-09-11|title=Apa Arti Dapil Neraka di Pemilu 2024? Ini Daftar Wilayahnya|url=https://tirto.id/apa-arti-dapil-neraka-di-pemilu-2024-ini-daftar-wilayahnya-gPVm|website=tirto.id|language=id|access-date=2025-02-05}}</ref> Well known marginal districts include:

* [[Jakarta II (electoral district)|Jakarta II electoral district]] that covers [[South Jakarta]], [[Central Jakarta]] and overseas voters. It is often contested by well known figures such as [[Hidayat Nur Wahid]], [[Once Mekel]] and [[Tsamara Amany]].<ref>https://www.tagar.id/tiga-caleg-ini-mendapat-dukungan-ahok-btp-dalam-pileg-2019</ref>
* [[Yogyakarta (electoral district)|Yogyakarta electoral district]] which covers the [[Special Region of Yogyakarta]] with only 8 seats often contested by figures such as [[Roy Suryo]], [[Titiek Suharto]], [[Ahmad Hanafi Rais]] (son of [[Amien Rais]]) and others.<ref>https://news.detik.com/berita/d-2533527/menengok-pertarungan-merebut-8-kursi-di-dapil-neraka-yogyakarta</ref>
* [[North Sumatra I (electoral district)|North Sumatra I electoral district]] that covers most of [[Medan metropolitan area]] with 10 seats allocated. This electoral district is often hotly contested with figures such as [[Yasonna Laoly]], [[Ruhut Sitompul]], [[Meutya Hafid]], and [[Musa Rajekshah]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=SINAGA |first=NIKSON |date=2024-01-20 |title=Pertarungan Ketat di ”Dapil Neraka” Sumut 1 |url=https://www.kompas.id/baca/polhuk/2024/01/20/dapil-neraka-sumut-i-pertarungan-menteri-kepala-daerah-petinggi-partai-hingga-jenderal |access-date=2025-04-16 |website=kompas.id |language=id}}</ref>

===United States===
In the United States, examples of congressional districts considered marginal in recent years include [[Illinois's 10th congressional district]], located in the northern suburbs of [[Chicago]],<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-robert-dold-10th-district-no-rematch-met-0510-20170509-story.html|title=Republican Dold won't seek 4th rematch for Congress with Democrat Schneider|first=Rick|last=Pearson|website=chicagotribune.com|date=9 May 2017 }}</ref> [[Texas's 23rd congressional district]], covering most of Texas' border with Mexico,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018/10/19/town-halls-in-dairy-queens-rep-will-hurd-wants-texas-only-swing-district-to-digest-his-message/|title=Town halls in Dairy Queens? Rep. Will Hurd wants Texas' only swing district to digest his message|date=October 19, 2018|website=Dallas News}}</ref> and [[New Hampshire's 1st congressional district]], which includes much of the state's eastern half, including its most populous city [[Manchester, New Hampshire|Manchester]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/06/politics/new-hampshire-carol-shea-porter-retires/index.html|title=New Hampshire Rep. Shea-Porter to retire, opening up competitive House seat|first=Eric|last=Bradner|date=October 6, 2017|website=CNN}}</ref> Within the past decade, these three districts are examples of ones that have frequently switched partisan control and seen close races.

However, political realignments and [[redistricting]] may cause traditionally marginal districts to become safe for one party or another. An example of the former is [[Indiana's 8th congressional district]], which was nicknamed the "Bloody Eighth" for its history of ousting incumbents from both the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] and [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] parties. However, as rural white voters, who are a large percentage of the district's population, have become increasingly Republican, it is now considered a safely Republican seat.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.tristatehomepage.com/news/local-news/indianas-bloody-eighth-isnt-what-it-used-to-be/|title=Indiana's 'Bloody' Eighth isn't what it used to be|date=November 6, 2018}}</ref> On the other hand, [[North Carolina's 11th congressional district]] is an example of a seat that lost its marginal status due to redistricting. It was formerly a highly competitive seat, albeit with a slight conservative lean, that often changed partisan hands. The Democratic base in the district was the city of [[Asheville, North Carolina|Asheville]], while Republicans were dominant in much of the city's suburbs, and the mountainous rural areas were evenly split between the two parties. However, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the district in 2012 to remove much of Asheville and add conservative territory from the adjacent [[North Carolina's 10th congressional district|10th district]], therefore making the district much more difficult to win for three-term incumbent [[Heath Shuler]], a conservative Democrat. Indeed, Shuler opted to retire, and Republican [[Mark Meadows (North Carolina politician)|Mark Meadows]] won the seat easily, subsequently holding it until March 2020 when he resigned to serve as [[White House Chief of Staff]].

Conversely, seats that were formerly considered safe for one party may become swing seats. For instance, [[Orange County, California]], was traditionally a Republican stronghold, and most of its congressional seats were solidly Republican for decades. However, demographic changes, particularly Democratic strength with Hispanic and Asian voters, have eroded Republican dominance of the county; [[Hillary Clinton]] won it in [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]], becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to do so since [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]] in [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]], while Democrats, for the first time in many years, swept all of its congressional seats in the [[2018 United States House of Representatives elections|2018 midterms]].<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/orange-county-republicans-democrats-demographics.html|title=In Orange County, a Republican Fortress Turns Democratic (Published 2018)|first1=Adam|last1=Nagourney|first2=Robert|last2=Gebeloff| newspaper=The New York Times |date=December 31, 2018}}</ref>

Marginal seats only require a small [[Swing (politics)|swing]] to change hands and therefore are typically the focus of most [[Political campaign|campaign]] resources. The concentration of money and human resources in areas where they will make the most difference is known as [[Targeting (politics)|targeting]].