Editing Policy Analysis Market (section)

== Proposal ==

PAM was to be "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of [[futures contract]]s based on possible political developments in several Middle Eastern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down based on reliable information.<ref>{{cite news |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/us/threats-responses-plans-criticisms-pentagon-prepares-futures-market-terror.html |title=Threats and Responses: Plans and Criticisms; Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks |first=Carl |last=Hulse |work=[[The New York Times]] |date=July 29, 2003 |access-date=October 29, 2019}}</ref><ref name="SS1" /> One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the [[University of Iowa]], which had predicted US election outcomes more accurately than either opinion polls or political [[Pundit (politics)|pundit]]s. PAM was also inspired by the work of [[George Mason University]] economist [[Robin Hanson]].<ref name="SS1">{{cite web |last=Lundin |first=Leigh |title=PAM, PRISM, and Poindexter |url= http://www.sleuthsayers.org/2013/07/pam-prism-and-poindexter.html |work=SleuthSayers: Professional Crime-Writers and Crime-Fighters |date=July 7, 2013 |location=Washington, DC |access-date=January 4, 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url= http://www.sirc.org/articles/policy_analysis.shtml |title=Policy Analysis Market and the Political Yuck Factor – why Americans shied away from a geopolitical futures market |date=2004 |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |work=SIRC.org |publisher=[[Social Issues Research Centre]] |access-date=October 29, 2019}}</ref>