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Population ageing
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==Overview== Population ageing is a shift in the distribution of a country's population towards older ages and is usually reflected in an increase in the population's mean and [[median age]]s, a decline in the proportion of the population composed of children, and a rise in the proportion of the population composed of the elderly. Population ageing is widespread across the world and is most advanced in the most highly developed countries, but it is growing faster in less developed regions, which means that older persons will be increasingly concentrated in the less developed regions of the world.{{dubious|date=April 2025}}<ref>{{cite web|last1=United Nations|title=World Population Ageing 2013|url=https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf}}</ref> The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, however, concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia, especially since Asia is in stage five (very low birth rate and low death rate) of the [[demographic transition|demographic transition model]].<ref>{{cite book |last1=Shaban |first1=Mostafa |title=Dr |date=2020 |publisher=lambert academic publishing |isbn=978-620-3-19697-9 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347007291}}</ref> Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a total population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the overall median age rose from 28 in 1950 to 40 in 2010 and is forecast to rise to 44 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 24 in 1950, 29 in 2010, and 36 in 2050. For the less developed regions, the median age will go from 26 in 2010 to 35 in 2050.<ref>{{cite web|last1=United Nations|title=World Ageing Population 2013|url=https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf}}</ref> Population ageing arises from two, possibly related, demographic effects: increasing [[longevity]] and declining [[fertility]]. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by increasing the numbers of surviving older people. A [[Birth dearth|decline in fertility]] reduces the number of babies, and as the effect continues, the numbers of younger people in general also reduce. Of the two forces, declining fertility now contributes to most of the population ageing in the world.<ref>Weil, David N., "The Economics of Population Aging" in Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds., Handbook of Population and Family Economics, New York: Elsevier, 1997, 967-1014.</ref> More specifically, the large decline in the overall fertility rate over the last half-century is primarily responsible for the population ageing in the world's most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently-developed countries will. The rate at which the population ages is likely to increase over the next three decades;<ref>{{cite journal |title=The coming acceleration of global population ageing |journal = [[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |first1= W. |last1 =Lutz |first2= W. |last2= Sanderson |first3= S. |last3= Scherbov |doi=10.1038/nature06516 |quote= The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. |date= 2008-02-07 |volume=451 |issue=7179|pages=716β719 |bibcode=2008Natur.451..716L |pmid=18204438|s2cid = 4379499 }}</ref> however, few countries know whether their older population are living the extra years of life in good or poor health.{{dubious|date=April 2025}} A "[[compression of morbidity]]" would imply reduced disability in old age,<ref>{{cite journal |title= Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity |journal = [[The New England Journal of Medicine]] |first1= J. F. |last1 =Fries |quote= the average age at first infirmity can be raised, thereby making the morbidity curve more rectangular. |date= 1980-07-17 |doi=10.1056/NEJM198007173030304 |pmid=7383070 |pmc = 2567746 |volume=303 |issue=3 |pages=130β5}} </ref> but an expansion would see an increase in poor health with increased longevity. Another option has been posed for a situation of "dynamic equilibrium."<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Manton, 1982|author=Manton KG|pmid=6919770|volume=60|issue=2|journal=Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc|pages=183β244|doi=10.2307/3349767|jstor=3349767|year=1982|s2cid=45827427 }}</ref> That is crucial information for governments if the limits of lifespan continue to increase indefinitely, as some researchers believe.<ref>{{cite journal |title= Broken Limits to Life Expectancy |journal = [[Science (journal)|Science]] |first1= J. |last1 =Oeppen |first2= J. W. |last2= Vaupel |volume= 296 |issue=5570 |date= 2002-05-10 |doi=10.1126/science.1069675 |pmid=12004104 |pages=1029β31|s2cid = 1132260 }} </ref> The [[World Health Organization]]'s suite of household health studies is working to provide the needed health and well-being evidence, such as the World Health Survey,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/en/index.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050819102522/http://www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/en/index.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=August 19, 2005 |title=Current Status of the World Health Survey|work=who.int |year=2011 |access-date=8 October 2011}}</ref> and [[Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health|the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE)]]. The surveys cover 308,000 respondents aged at least 18 and 81,000 aged at least 50 from 70 countries. [[The Global Ageing Survey]], directed by [[George Leeson]], explores attitudes, expectations, and behaviours towards later life and retirement. It covers 44,000 people aged 40β80 in 24 countries around the world. It has revealed that many people are now fully aware of the ageing of the world's population and its implications for their lives and those of their children and grandchildren. Canada has the [[immigration#Canada|highest per capita immigration rate]] in the world, perhaps partly to counter population ageing. However the [[C. D. Howe Institute]], a conservative [[think tank]], has suggested that immigration cannot be used as a viable means to counter population ageing.<ref name="backgrounder">{{cite journal|date=September 2006|title=No Elixir of Youth|journal=Backgrounder|volume=96|author=Yvan Guillemette|author2=William Robson|url=http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/backgrounder_96.pdf|access-date=2008-05-03|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080414023246/http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/backgrounder_96.pdf|archive-date=2008-04-14}}</ref> That conclusion is also seen in the work of other scholars. The demographers [[Peter McDonald (demographer)|Peter McDonald]] and [[Rebecca Kippen (demographer)|Rebecca Kippen]] commented, "As fertility sinks further below replacement level, increasingly higher levels of annual net migration will be required to maintain a target of even zero population growth."<ref name="macdonaldkippen">{{cite journal|year=2000|title=Population Futures for Australia and New Zealand: An Analysis of the Options|journal=New Zealand Population Review|volume=26|issue=2|author=Peter McDonald|author2=Rebecca Kippen|url=http://adsri.anu.edu.au/pubs/Kippen/pop_futures_A&NZ.pdf|access-date=2008-05-04|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080527203425/http://adsri.anu.edu.au/pubs/Kippen/pop_futures_A%26NZ.pdf|archive-date=2008-05-27}}</ref>
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