Editing Prediction (section)

==Opinion==
In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an [[hypothesis|informed guess or opinion]].

A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's [[abductive reasoning]], [[inductive reasoning]], [[deductive reasoning]], and [[empirical evidence|experience]]; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a [[expert|knowledgeable person]] in the field.<ref>{{cite book |last=Silver |first=Nate |author-link=Nate Silver |year=2012 |title=The Signal and the Noise : Why so many predictions fail—but some don't |url=https://archive.org/detail/signalnoisewhymo00silv |url-access=registration |publisher=Penguin Press |location=New York |isbn=978-1-59420-411-1 }}</ref>

The [[Delphi method]] is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way.  This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's [[Cognition|cognitive experiences]] forming an [[intuition|intuitive]] [[Probability density function|"probability curve."]]