Editing Recession (section)

==Definitions==

In a 1974 article by ''[[The New York Times]]'', Commissioner of the [[Bureau of Labor Statistics]] [[Julius Shiskin]] suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
* In terms of duration – [[List of countries by GNI per capita growth|Declines in real gross national income (GNI)]] for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.
* In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real [[gross national income]]; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%.
* In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.
* In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Shiskin |first=Julius |date=1 December 1974 |title=Points of View |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/01/archives/the-changing-business-cycle-points-op-view.html |access-date=27 July 2022 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=25 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200325140941/https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/01/archives/the-changing-business-cycle-points-op-view.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Dale |first=Edwin L. Jr |date=6 April 1974 |title=U.S. to Broaden the Base Of Consumer Price Index |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1974/04/06/archives/us-to-broaden-the-base-of-consumer-price-index-woodcock-criticism.html |access-date=27 July 2022 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=27 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220727071614/https://www.nytimes.com/1974/04/06/archives/us-to-broaden-the-base-of-consumer-price-index-woodcock-criticism.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Silk |first=Leonard |date=28 August 1974 |title=Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.html |access-date=27 July 2022 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=27 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220727071534/https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Lakshman |first1=Achuthan |last2=Banerji |first2=Anirvan |url=https://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/news/economy/recession/ |title=The risk of redefining recession |work=[[CNN Money]] |date=May 7, 2008 |access-date=August 8, 2022}}</ref>

In the [[United States]], the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the [[National Bureau of Economic Research]] (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in [[real GDP]], [[real income]], employment, [[industrial production]], and [[wholesale]]-[[retail sales]]".<ref name="nber.org">{{cite web |url= https://www.nber.org/cycles/|title= Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions|access-date=20 March 2020 |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20200305102656/https://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html |archive-date = 5 March 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough."<ref name="auto"/> The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Anstey |first1=Chris |title='Technical Recession' Sets Up Washington War of the Words |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/technical-recession-sets-up-washington-battle-of-words |publisher=Bloomberg News |date=28 July 2022 |access-date=28 July 2022 }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Cox |first1=Jeff |title=The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/the-economy-may-look-like-its-in-recession-but-we-still-dont-know-for-sure.html |publisher=CNBC |date=28 July 2022 |access-date=28 July 2022 |archive-date=28 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220728160352/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/the-economy-may-look-like-its-in-recession-but-we-still-dont-know-for-sure.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Jacobsen |first1=Louis |title=What exactly is a recession? Sorting out a confusing topic |url=https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jul/26/what-exactly-recession-sorting-out-confusing/ |publisher=PolitiFact |date=26 July 2022 |access-date=28 July 2022 |archive-date=27 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220727143534/https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jul/26/what-exactly-recession-sorting-out-confusing/ |url-status=live }}</ref> The [[Bureau of Economic Analysis]], an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics,<ref name="LoeLewis2022">{{cite news |last1=Loe |first1=Megan |last2=Lewis |first2=Brandon |title=Yes, there is an official definition of a recession |url=https://www.9news.com/article/news/verify/what-is-a-recession-official-definition/536-47a3cc51-3385-4f43-8fbd-1456c01536df |access-date=31 July 2022 |work=KUSA.com |date=28 July 2022}}</ref> says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research".<ref name="BEA2022">{{cite web |title=Recession {{!}} U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) |url=https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession |website=www.bea.gov |publisher=Bureau of Economic Analysis |access-date=31 July 2022 |date=2022}}</ref>

The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.

[[List of recessions in the United Kingdom|Recessions in the United Kingdom]] are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for [[real GDP]].<ref name="BBC"/><ref name="UKTreasury"/>

The [[Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]] (OECD), an intergovernmental organization, defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative [[output gap]] reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.<ref>{{Cite book|chapter-url=https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2008-issue-2_eco_outlook-v2008-2-en|chapter=OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2|title=oecd-ilibrary.org|year=2008 |publisher=Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development }}</ref>

''GDP per capita recession''<ref name="n313">{{cite web | title=Advance Warning Indicators of Past Severe GDP per Capita Recessions in Turkey | website=OECD | date=11 October 2016 | url=https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/advance-warning-indicators-of-past-severe-gdp-per-capita-recessions-in-turkey_5jlpq7swq4wf-en.html | access-date=28 February 2025}}</ref> refers to the [[List of countries by real GDP per capita growth|decline of GDP per capita]] instead of decline of total GDP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43381/|title=On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession|first=Mazurek|last=Jiří|date=22 December 2012|website=mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de}}</ref>