Editing Swing state (section)

== Background ==
[[File:States by partisan lean based on the results of the 2024 presidential election.svg|thumb|330x330px|Map of [[United States state|states]] by partisan lean in the [[2024 United States presidential election]], weighted relative to the national popular vote margin (1.5% in favor of the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] nominee, [[Donald Trump]], over the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] nominee, [[Kamala Harris]]){{pb}}'''Legend (darker indicates greater margin):'''
{{legend|#1063ff|Relative lean of >10 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#6497ff|Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#b1cbff|Relative lean of <5 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#fbb7bb|Relative lean of <5 points toward Trump}}
{{legend|#ff6475|Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Trump}}
{{legend|#ff102b|Relative lean of >10 points toward Trump}}]]
In [[United States presidential election|United States presidential elections]], each state is free to decide the method by which its electors to the [[United States Electoral College|Electoral College]] will be chosen. To increase its [[Banzhaf power index#U.S. Electoral College|voting power in the Electoral College system]], every state, with the exceptions of [[Maine]] and [[Nebraska]], has adopted a [[Plurality voting system|winner-take-all]] system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|title=What Are Swing States and How Did They Become a Key Factor in US Elections? – HISTORY|url=https://www.history.com/news/swing-states-presidential-elections|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=www.history.com|date=October 7, 2020 }}</ref> 

The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. However, in practice, most voters tend not to change party allegiance from one election to the next, leading presidential candidates to concentrate their limited time and resources campaigning in those states that they believe they can [[swing (politics)|swing]] towards them or stop states from swinging away from them, and not to spend time or resources in states they expect to win or lose. 

Because of the electoral system, the campaigns are less concerned with increasing a candidate's national popular vote, tending instead to concentrate on the popular vote only in those states which will provide the electoral votes it needs to win the election, as many successful candidates have [[List of United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote|lost the popular vote]] but won the electoral college.

In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the [[mountain states]] and [[Great Plains]], such as [[Idaho]], [[Wyoming]], [[the Dakotas]], [[Montana]], [[Utah]], [[Kansas]], [[Oklahoma]], and [[Nebraska]], most of the [[Southern United States|South]], including [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]], [[South Carolina]], [[Missouri]], [[Texas]], and [[West Virginia]], as well as [[Alaska]]. Democrats usually take the [[Mid-Atlantic (United States)|Mid-Atlantic]] states, including [[New York (state)|New York]], [[New Jersey]], [[Maryland]], [[Virginia]], and [[Delaware]], [[New England]], particularly [[Vermont]], [[Massachusetts]], [[Rhode Island]], and [[Connecticut]], the [[West Coast (United States)|West Coast]] states of [[California]], [[Oregon]], [[Washington (state)|Washington]], [[Hawaii]], and the [[Southwestern United States|Southwestern]] states of [[Colorado]] and [[New Mexico]], as well as the [[Great Lakes region|Great Lakes]] states of [[Illinois]] and [[Minnesota]].<ref>{{Cite web|title=A recent voting history of the 15 Battleground states – National Constitution Center|url=https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/voting-history-of-the-15-battleground-states|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=State Electoral Vote History: 1900 to Present|url=https://www.270towin.com/state-electoral-vote-history/|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=270toWin.com}}</ref>

However, some states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in [[New Hampshire]], [[Vermont]] and [[Virginia]] which have Republican governors, as well as in [[Kentucky]] and [[Kansas]], which currently have Democratic governors. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and [[gubernatorial]] tickets. In 2024, this occurred in three states: [[North Carolina]], [[Vermont]] and [[New Hampshire]]. Vermont and New Hampshire both elected Republican governors even as Democrat [[Kamala Harris]] won both states. North Carolina, despite voting for Republican [[Donald Trump]], elected a Democratic governor. North Carolina has elected a Democratic governor in each concurrent gubernatorial election where Donald Trump was the Republican presidential nominee, by a notably wide margin in [[2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election|2024]]. <ref>{{Cite web |title=2020 Governor Election Results – 270toWin |url=https://www.270towin.com/2020-governor-election/2020-actual-results |access-date=2022-05-11 |website=270toWin.com}}</ref>

In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for [[United States Senate|U.S. senators]] and [[United States House of Representatives|representatives]]. Two electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the plurality of the vote statewide, and a candidate gets an additional electoral vote for each [[Congressional District|congressional district]] in which they receive a plurality.<ref name=":0" /> Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes – a total of 4 and 5, respectively. Nebraska has split its votes since 1992, and Maine has done so since 1972. Each state has split its electoral votes only thrice since implementation: all three times Maine's second district gave one vote to Donald Trump, in 2016 (won), 2020 (lost) and 2024 (won); while Obama in 2008 (won), Biden in 2020 (won), and Harris in 2024 (lost) obtained the Nebraska's second district vote in their respective races.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite news|date=2020-11-04|title=Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District|language=en|work=[[Bloomberg News|Bloomberg]]|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-04/biden-wins-nebraska-s-2nd-congressional-district|access-date=2020-12-01}}</ref>