Editing Weather forecasting (section)

== History ==
{{Main|Timeline of meteorology}}

===Ancient forecasting===
In 650&nbsp;BC, the [[Babylonia]]ns predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as [[astrology]]. In about 350&nbsp;BC, [[Aristotle]] described weather patterns in ''[[Meteorology (Aristotle)|Meteorologica]]''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|title=94.05.01: Meteorology|website=teachersinstitute.yale.edu|access-date=January 14, 2020|archive-date=January 27, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200127092756/http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Later, [[Theophrastus]] compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the ''Book of Signs''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/weather-forecasting-from-the-beginning|title=Weather: Forecasting from the Beginning|website=InfoPlease|access-date=January 14, 2020|archive-date=January 31, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131030233/http://www.infoplease.com/cig/weather/forecasting-from-beginning.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300&nbsp;BC,<ref>[[University of California]] Museum of Paleontology. [http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html "Aristotle (384-322&nbsp;B.C.E.)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161120124920/http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html |date=November 20, 2016 }}". Retrieved January 12, 2008.</ref> which was also around the same time ancient [[Indian astronomy|Indian astronomers]] developed weather-prediction methods.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Indian and Pseudo-indian Passages in Greek and Latin Astronomical and Astrological Texts|author=David Pingree|pages=141–195 [143–4]|url=http://brepols.metapress.com/content/6861608670636388/fulltext.pdf|access-date=March 1, 2010|date=December 14, 2017|author-link=David Pingree}}{{dead link|date=January 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> In the [[New Testament]], Jesus is quoted as referring to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|title=Bible Gateway passage: Matthew 16:2–3 – English Standard Version|website=Bible Gateway|access-date=December 1, 2016|archive-date=December 1, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161201143801/https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|url-status=live}}</ref>

In 904&nbsp;AD, [[Ibn Wahshiyya]]'s ''[[Nabatean Agriculture]]'', translated into Arabic from an earlier [[Aramaic]] work,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Carrara|first1=A.A|title=Geoponica and Nabatean Agriculture: A New Approach into Their Sources and Authorship|journal=Arabic Sciences and Philosophy|volume=16|issue=1|pages=123–130|doi=10.1017/s0957423906000245|year=2006|s2cid=170931904}}</ref> discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the [[lunar phase]]s; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Fahd|first=Toufic|page=842|title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science}}, in {{Cite book |last1=Rashed |first1=Roshdi |last2=Morelon |first2=Régis |year=1996 |title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science |volume=3 |publisher=[[Routledge]] |isbn=978-0-415-12410-2 |pages=813–852|title-link=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science }}</ref>

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it was observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over the generations to produce [[weather lore]]. However, not all{{which|date=April 2015}} of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing.<ref name=Skywatch>{{cite web |author=Jerry Wilson |url=http://wilstar.com/skywatch.htm#indicators |title=Skywatch: Signs of the Weather |access-date=May 25, 2008 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130106041039/http://wilstar.com/skywatch.htm#indicators |archive-date=January 6, 2013 }}</ref>

===Modern methods===
[[File:StateLibQld 1 186783 Royal Charter (ship).jpg|thumb|The ''Royal Charter'' sank in an October 1859 storm, stimulating the establishment of modern weather forecasting.]]
It was not until the invention of the [[Electrical telegraph|electric telegraph]] in 1835 that the modern age of weather forecasting began.<ref name=":0">{{cite web |author=David Hochfelder |year=1998 | url=http://www.si.edu/archives/ihd/jhp/joseph20.htm| title=Joseph Henry: Inventor of the Telegraph? |publisher=Smithsonian Institution | access-date=June 29, 2006 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20060626163000/http://www.si.edu/archives/ihd/jhp/joseph20.htm |archive-date = June 26, 2006}}</ref> Before that, the fastest that distant weather reports could travel was around 160 kilometres per day (100&nbsp;mi/d), but was more typically 60–120 kilometres per day (40–75&nbsp;mi/day) (whether by land or by sea).<ref name="USPS History">{{cite web|last=Ausman|first=Megaera|title=USPS Historian|url=http://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-history/overland-mail.htm|work=About the United States Postal Service|publisher=USPS|access-date=April 28, 2013|archive-date=March 30, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130330073121/http://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-history/overland-mail.htm|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Royal Mail coaches">{{cite web|last=Mail|first=Royal|title=(UK)|url=http://postalheritage.org.uk/page/Mail-Coaches|work=British Postal Museum|publisher=Postal Heritage Trust|access-date=April 28, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130318021542/http://www.postalheritage.org.uk/page/mail-coaches|archive-date=March 18, 2013|url-status=dead}}</ref> By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously,<ref>Encyclopædia Britannica. [http://www.britannica.com/eb/topic-585850/telegraph "Telegraph"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070929133128/http://www.britannica.com/eb/topic-585850/telegraph |date=September 29, 2007 }}. Retrieved May 5, 2007.</ref> allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further [[Windward and leeward|upwind]].

The two men credited with the birth of forecasting as a science were an officer of the [[Royal Navy]] [[Francis Beaufort]] and his [[protégé]] [[Robert FitzRoy]]. Both were influential men in [[United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland|British]] naval and governmental circles, and though ridiculed in the press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the Royal Navy, and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge.<ref>{{cite web | author = Eric D. Craft |year=2003 | title = An Economic History of Weather Forecasting | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070503193324/http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/craft.weather.forcasting.history | archive-date = May 3, 2007 | url = https://eh.net/encyclopedia/an-economic-history-of-weather-forecasting/ | access-date =April 15, 2007}}</ref><ref name="BBC">{{cite news |title=The birth of the weather forecast |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32483678 |work=BBC News |date=April 30, 2015 |access-date=April 30, 2015 |archive-date=May 3, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150503001458/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32483678 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Beaufort developed the [[Beaufort scale|Wind Force Scale]] and Weather Notation coding, which he was to use in his journals for the remainder of his life. He also promoted the development of reliable tide tables around British shores, and with his friend [[William Whewell]], expanded weather record-keeping at 200 British [[coast guard]] stations.

[[Robert FitzRoy]] was appointed in 1854 as chief of a new department within the [[Board of Trade]] to deal with the collection of weather data at sea as a service to [[sailor|mariners]]. This was the forerunner of the modern [[Met Office|Meteorological Office]].<ref name="BBC"/> All ship captains were tasked with collating data on the weather and computing it, with the use of tested instruments that were loaned for this purpose.<ref name="Mellersh, H. E. L. 1968">Mellersh, H. E. L. (1968). FitzRoy of the Beagle. Hart-Davis. {{ISBN|0-246-97452-4}}</ref>

[[File:Meyers b16 s0570.jpg|left|thumb|Weather map of Europe, December 10, 1887]]
A storm in October 1859 that caused the loss of the [[Royal Charter (ship)|''Royal Charter'']] inspired FitzRoy to develop charts to allow predictions to be made, which he called ''"forecasting the weather"'', thus coining the term "weather forecast".<ref name="Mellersh, H. E. L. 1968"/> Fifteen land stations were established to use the [[telegraph]] to transmit to him daily reports of weather at set times leading to the first gale warning service. His warning service for shipping was initiated in February 1861, with the use of [[electric telegraph|telegraph communications]]. The first daily weather forecasts were published in ''[[The Times]]'' in 1861.<ref name="BBC"/> In the following year a system was introduced of hoisting storm warning cones at the principal ports when a gale was expected.<ref name="Kington">{{Cite book|title=Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future|first=John|last=Kington|editor=Mike Hulme and Elaine Barrow|year=1997|publisher=Routledge|page=147}}</ref> The ''"Weather Book"'' which FitzRoy published in 1863 was far in advance of the scientific opinion of the time.

As the electric telegraph network expanded, allowing for the more rapid dissemination of warnings, a national observational network was developed, which could then be used to provide synoptic analyses. To shorten detailed weather reports into more affordable telegrams, senders encoded weather information in [[Telegraph code|telegraphic code]], such as the one developed by the [[U.S. Army Signal Corps]].<ref>{{cite news |title=A woman bought a vintage dress at an antique store. It had a secret pocket with a mysterious note |first=Faith |last=Karimi |publisher=CNN |date=January 15, 2024 |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/15/us/antique-dress-maine-encrypted-message-cec/index.html |access-date=January 17, 2024 |archive-date=January 16, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240116233400/https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/15/us/antique-dress-maine-encrypted-message-cec/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Instruments to continuously record variations in meteorological parameters using [[Photography#Science and forensics|photography]] were supplied to the observing stations from [[King's Observatory|Kew Observatory]] – these cameras had been invented by [[Francis Ronalds]] in 1845 and his [[barograph]] had earlier been used by FitzRoy.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Sir Francis Ronalds: Father of the Electric Telegraph|last=Ronalds|first=B. F.|publisher=Imperial College Press|year=2016|isbn=978-1-78326-917-4|location=London}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ronalds|first=B. F.|date=June 2016|title=Sir Francis Ronalds and the Early Years of the Kew Observatory|journal=Weather|volume=71|issue=6|pages=131–134|doi=10.1002/wea.2739 |bibcode=2016Wthr...71..131R|s2cid=123788388 }}</ref>

To convey accurate information, it soon became necessary to have a standard vocabulary describing clouds; this was achieved by means of a series of classifications first achieved by [[Luke Howard]] in 1802, and standardized in the ''[[International Cloud Atlas]]'' of 1896.

===Numerical prediction===
{{Main|History of numerical weather prediction}}
[[File:Improved-weather-forecasting 7463.png|thumb|The difference between the forecast and the actual weather outcome for forecasts 3, 5, 7, and 10 days in advance.]]
It was not until the 20th century that advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern [[numerical weather prediction]]. In 1922, English scientist [[Lewis Fry Richardson]] published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process",<ref>Richardson, Lewis Fry, ''Weather Prediction by Numerical Process'' (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1922). Available on-line at: [https://archive.org/stream/weatherpredictio00richrich#page/n7/mode/2up Internet Archive.org].</ref> after finding notes and derivations he worked on as an ambulance driver in World War I. He described therein how small terms in the prognostic fluid dynamics equations governing atmospheric flow could be neglected, and a finite differencing scheme in time and space could be devised, to allow numerical prediction solutions to be found.

Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations and passing them to others. However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to be completed without the use of computers, and the size of the grid and time steps led to unrealistic results in deepening systems. It was later found, through numerical analysis, that this was due to [[numerical instability]].<ref>[[Peter Lynch (meteorologist)|Lynch, Peter]] (2006). The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction. Cambridge University Press</ref> The first computerised weather forecast was performed by a team composed of American meteorologists [[Jule Charney]], [[Philip Duncan Thompson]], [[Larry Gates]], and Norwegian meteorologist [[Ragnar Fjørtoft]], applied mathematician [[John von Neumann]], and [[ENIAC]] programmer [[Klara Dan von Neumann]].<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.3402/tellusa.v2i4.8607|title=Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation|journal=Tellus|volume=2|issue=4|pages=237–254|year=1950|last1=Charney|first1=J. G.|last2=Fjörtoft|first2=R.|last3=von Neumann|first3=J.|bibcode=1950Tell....2..237C|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine |last1=Witman |first1=Sarah |title=Meet the Computer Scientist You Should Thank For Your Smartphone's Weather App |url=http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/meet-computer-scientist-you-should-thank-your-phone-weather-app-180963716/ |magazine=Smithsonian |date=June 16, 2017 |access-date=July 22, 2017 |archive-date=April 21, 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190421001535/https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/meet-computer-scientist-you-should-thank-your-phone-weather-app-180963716/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last=Edwards|first=Paul N.|title=A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming|year=2010|publisher=The MIT Press|isbn=978-0262013925|url=http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=12080|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127215929/http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=12080|archive-date=January 27, 2012}}</ref> Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in 1955,<ref>Paul N. Edwards. [http://www.aip.org/history/sloan/gcm/ "Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080325084036/http://www.aip.org/history/sloan/gcm/ |date=March 25, 2008 }} Retrieved February 16, 2007.</ref> spurred by the development of programmable electronic computers.

===Broadcasts===
{{see also|Weather presenter}}

The first ever daily weather forecasts were published in ''[[The Times]]'' on August 1, 1861, and the first [[weather map]]s were produced later in the same year.<ref>{{cite web |author=Helen Czerski |date=August 1, 2011 |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/23degrees/2011/08/150_years_since_the_first_uk_w.html |title=Orbit: Earth's Extraordinary Journey: 150 years since the first UK weather "forecast" |publisher=BBC |access-date=November 5, 2013 |archive-date=March 27, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230327100419/https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/23degrees/2011/08/150_years_since_the_first_uk_w.html |url-status=live }}</ref> In 1911, the [[Met Office]] began issuing the first marine weather forecasts via radio transmission. These included gale and storm warnings for areas around Great Britain.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/f/Fact_sheet_No._8.pdf|title=National Meteorological Library and Fact Sheet 8 – The Shipping Forecast|author=Met Office|date=2012|version=1|pages=3–5|access-date=April 10, 2013|archive-date=July 5, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160705110246/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/f/Fact_sheet_No._8.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> In the United States, the first public radio forecasts were made in 1925 by Edward B. "E.B." Rideout, on [[WEZE|WEEI]], the Edison Electric Illuminating station in Boston.<ref name="cyc">{{cite encyclopedia |url=http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3401802621.html |title=meteorology Facts, information, pictures &#124; Encyclopedia.com articles about meteorology |encyclopedia=Encyclopedia.com |access-date=February 21, 2014 |archive-date=March 1, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100301201545/http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3401802621.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Rideout came from the [[National Weather Service|U.S. Weather Bureau]], as did [[WBZ (AM)|WBZ]] weather forecaster G. Harold Noyes in 1931.

[[File:BBC television weather chart - 1936-11-13.jpg|thumb|BBC television weather chart for November 13, 1936]]

The world's first [[Live television|televised]] weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the [[BBC]] in November 1936.<ref name="BBC-60154358">{{cite news |title=BBC Centenary: BBC Weather's most memorable moments - BBC Weather |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60154358 |access-date=February 12, 2022 |archive-date=February 11, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220211202542/https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60154358 |url-status=live }}</ref> This was brought into practice in 1949, after [[World War II]].<ref name="BBC-60154358" /> [[George Cowling]] gave the first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm |title=BBC – Weather – A history of TV weather forecasts|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130102193118/http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm|website=BBC Weather|archive-date=January 2, 2013}}</ref><ref name="HUNT">{{cite journal|doi=10.1002/wea.81|title=The end of weather forecasting at Met Office London|journal=Weather|volume=62|issue=6|pages=143–146|year=2007|last1=Hunt|first1=Roger|bibcode=2007Wthr...62..143H|s2cid=122103141 |doi-access=}}</ref> In America, experimental television forecasts were made by [[James C. Fidler]] in Cincinnati in either 1940 or 1947{{clarify|date=January 2023}} on the [[DuMont Television Network]].<ref name="cyc" /><ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | title=Answers: Understanding weather forecasts | date=February 8, 2006 | work=USA Today | access-date=September 18, 2017 | archive-date=August 13, 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120813060637/http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | url-status=dead }}</ref> In the late 1970s and early 1980s, [[John Coleman (news weathercaster)|John Coleman]], the first weatherman for the [[American Broadcasting Company]] (ABC)'s ''[[Good Morning America]]'', pioneered the use of on-screen [[weather satellite]] data and [[computer graphics]] for television forecasts.<ref name=CJR>[https://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/cjr_rewind_hot_air.php CJR Rewind: Hot Air] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161222183542/http://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/cjr_rewind_hot_air.php |date=December 22, 2016 }}, ''[[Columbia Journalism Review]]'', reprint, first published in the January/February 2010 issue.</ref> In 1982, Coleman partnered with [[Landmark Media Enterprises|Landmark Communications]] CEO [[Frank Batten]] to launch [[The Weather Channel]] (TWC), a 24-hour cable network devoted to national and local weather reports. Some weather channels have started broadcasting on [[Live broadcasting|live streaming platforms]] such as [[YouTube]] and [[Periscope (app)|Periscope]] to reach more viewers.