Editing Extraterrestrial UFO hypothesis (section)

==Critical responses and positions of the ETH==
People have had a long-standing curiosity about extraterrestrial life. Aliens are the subject of numerous urban legends, including claims that they have long been present on earth or that they may be able to assist humans in resolving certain issues. Despite these myths, the truth is that there is no scientific proof to back up these assertions, hence we cannot declare with certainty whether or not aliens exist.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Extraterrestrial Intelligence In the Solar System: Resolving the Fermi Paradox |url=http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ResolvingFermi1983.htm |access-date=2022-11-05 |website=www.rfreitas.com}}</ref> In spite of ardent believers that various UFO sightings are verifiable evidence for the ET [[hypothesis]], no rigorous analysis has ever concluded as much.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Lagatta |first=James Powel and Eric |title=Director of Pentagon's UAP office testifies: No 'verifiable evidence' of aliens |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/11/19/jon-kosloski-ufo-uap-all-domain-anomaly-aliens/76433923007/ |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=USA TODAY |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Impey |first=Chris |date=2023-09-15 |title=NASA report finds no evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial |url=https://theconversation.com/nasa-report-finds-no-evidence-that-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-213528 |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=The Conversation |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2006-05-07 |title=UFOs? No such thing, secret U.K. study finds |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna11923778 |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=NBC News |language=en}}</ref>

{{See also|Interdimensional hypothesis|Psychosocial hypothesis}}

===U.S. military investigation and debunkery===
On July 9, Army Air Forces Intelligence began a secret study of the best saucer reports, including that of Arnold's. A follow-up study by the [[Air Materiel Command]] intelligence and engineering departments at [[Wilbur Wright Field#Wright Field|Wright Field]], Ohio led to the formation of the U.S. Air Force's [[Project Sign]] at the end of 1947, the first official U.S. military UFO study.

In 1948, Project Sign concluded without endorsing any unified explanation for all UFO reports, and the <abbr title="extraterrestrial hypothesis">ETH</abbr> was rejected by USAF Chief of Staff General [[Hoyt Vandenberg]], citing a lack of physical evidence. Vandenberg dismantled Project Sign, and with this official policy in place, subsequent public Air Force reports concluded, that there was insufficient evidence to warrant further investigation of UFOs.{{citation needed|date=August 2015}}

In 1952, Life Magazine published "[[Have We Visitors From Space?]]" which popularized the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis and is thought to have triggered the [[1952 UFO flap]].<ref name="Mazur">{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=rjwrDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA123|title=Implausible Beliefs: In the Bible, Astrology, and UFOs|first=Allan|last=Mazur|date=July 5, 2017|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-351-51322-7 |via=Google Books}}</ref>  Immediately following the great UFO wave of 1952 and the military debunking of radar and visual sightings, plus jet interceptions over Washington, D.C. in August, the CIA's Office of Scientific Investigation took particular interest in UFOs.  Though the ETH was mentioned, it was generally given little credence.  However, others within the CIA, such as the [[Psychological Strategy Board]], were more concerned about how an unfriendly power such as the Soviet Union might use UFOs for psychological warfare purposes, exploit the gullibility of the public for the sensational, and clog intelligence channels.  Under a directive from the [[United States National Security Council|National Security Council]] to review the problem, in January 1953, the CIA organized the [[Robertson Panel]],<ref>{{cite book|author1=Timothy Good|author-link1=Timothy Good|last2=[Hill-Norton|first2=P.]|author2-link= Peter_Hill-Norton#Later_career|title=Above Top Secret: the Worldwide UFO Cover-Up|publication-place=[[Avenue of the Americas]], [[New York City|New York]]|publisher=[[William Morrow & Co.]]|publication-date=1988 |isbn=0688092020 |url=https://archive.org/details/B-001-014-055/mode/2up|pages=328–335}}</ref> a group of scientists who quickly reviewed the Blue Book's best evidence, including motion pictures and an engineering report that concluded that the performance characteristics were beyond that of earthly craft.  After two days' review, all cases were claimed to have conventional explanations.  An official policy of public debunkery was recommended using the mass media and authority figures in order to influence public opinion and reduce the number of UFO reports.

===Involvement of scientists===<!--Opinions among and research by scientists-->
The [[scientific community]] has shown very little support for the <abbr title="extraterrestrial hypothesis">ETH</abbr>, and has largely accepted the explanation that reports of UFOs are the result of people misinterpreting common objects or phenomena, or are the work of hoaxers. Professor [[Stephen Hawking]] has expressed skepticism about the ETH.<ref name=hawking1>Hawking Stephen, [http://www.hawking.org.uk/space-and-time-warps.html Space and Time Warps] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120210233225/http://www.hawking.org.uk/space-and-time-warps.html |date=2012-02-10 }}</ref> In a 1969 lecture, U.S. astrophysicist [[Carl Sagan#Sagan|Carl Sagan]] said:

:"The idea of benign or hostile space aliens from other planets visiting the Earth [is clearly] an emotional idea. There are two sorts of self-deception here: either accepting the idea of extraterrestrial visitation by space aliens in the face of very meager evidence because we want it to be true; or rejecting such an idea out of hand, in the absence of sufficient evidence, because we don't want it to be true. Each of these extremes is a serious impediment to the study of UFOs."<ref name=saganandpage>Sagan Carl,  Page Thornton (1972), "UFOs: A Scientific Debate". Cornell University Press, {{ISBN|0-8014-0740-0}}</ref>

Similarly, British astrophysicist [[Peter A. Sturrock]] wrote

:"for many years, discussions of the UFO issue have remained narrowly polarized between advocates and adversaries of a single theory, namely the extraterrestrial hypothesis&nbsp;... this fixation on the ETH has narrowed and impoverished the debate, precluding an examination of other possible theories for the phenomenon."<ref name=sturrock>Sturrock Peter A (1999), "The UFO Enigma: A New Review of the Physical Evidence", Warner Books, {{ISBN|0-446-52565-0}}</ref>

An informal poll done by Sturrock in 1973 of [[American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics]] members found that about 10% of them believed that UFOs were vehicles from outer space.<ref name=50plus>John F. Schuessler (January 2000), [http://www.mufon.com/znews_publicopinion.html Public Opinion Surveys and Unidentified Flying Objects; 50+ years of Sampling Public Opinions] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051111004644/http://www.mufon.com/znews_publicopinion.html |date=2005-11-11 }}</ref>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}<ref>[http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc592.htm More detailed account of Sturrock AIAA poll]; 1973.</ref>{{Failed verification|date=December 2015}} In another poll conducted in 1977, Sturrock asked members of the [[American Astronomical Society]] to assign probabilities to eight possible explanations for UFOs. The results were:<ref name=50plus/>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| 23%  || An unfamiliar natural phenomenon
|-
| 22% ||  A familiar phenomenon or device
|-
| 21% || An unfamiliar terrestrial device
|-
| 12% || Hoax
|-
| 9% || An unknown natural phenomenon
|-
| 7% ||  Some specifiable other cause
|-
| 3% ||  An alien device
|-
| 3% || Some unspecified other cause
|}

The primary scientific arguments against ETH were summarized by astronomer and UFO researcher [[J. Allen Hynek]] during a presentation at the 1983 [[Mutual UFO Network|MUFON]] Symposium, where he outlined seven key reasons why he could not accept the ETH.<ref>Hynek, J. Allen (1983), "The case against ET", in Walter H. Andrus, Jr., and Dennis W. Stacy (eds), [[MUFON]] UFO Symposium</ref>

# Failure of sophisticated surveillance systems to detect incoming or outgoing UFOs
# Gravitational and atmospheric considerations
# Statistical considerations
# Elusive, evasive and absurd behavior of UFOs and their occupants
# Isolation of the UFO phenomenon in time and space: the [[Cheshire Cat]] effect
# The space unworthiness of UFOs
# The problem of astronomical distances

Hynek argued that:

# Despite worldwide [[radar]] systems and Earth-orbiting satellites, UFOs are alleged to flit in and out of the atmosphere, leaving little to no evidence.
# Space aliens are alleged to be overwhelmingly [[humanoid]], and are allegedly able to exist on Earth without much difficulty often lacking "[[space suit]]s", even though [[exoplanet|extra-solar planets]] would likely have different [[atmosphere]]s, [[biosphere]]s, [[gravity]] and other factors, and extraterrestrial life would likely be very different from Earthly life.
# The number of reported UFOs and of purported encounters with UFO-inhabitants outstrips the number of expeditions that an alien civilization (or civilizations) could statistically be expected to mount.
# The behavior of extraterrestrials reported during alleged abductions is often inconsistent and irrational.
# UFOs are isolated in time and space: like the [[Cheshire Cat]], they seem to appear and disappear at will, leaving only vague, ambiguous and mocking evidence of their presence
# Reported UFOs are often far too small to support a crew traveling through space, and their reported flight behavior is often not representative of a craft under intelligent control (erratic flight patterns, sudden course changes).
# The distance between planets makes interstellar travel impractical, particularly because of the amount of energy that would be required for [[interstellar travel]] using conventional means, (According to a NASA estimate, it would take 7{{e|19}} [[joule]]s of energy to send the then-current [[Space Shuttle]] on a one-way 50-year journey to the nearest star, an enormous amount of energy<ref name="Nasa2">Warp Drive, When?: [http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/warp/scales.html A Look at the Scaling] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130708041902/http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/warp/scales.html |date=2013-07-08 }}, (October 2006)</ref>) and because of the level of technology that would be required to ''circumvent'' conventional energy/fuel/speed limitations using exotic means, such as [[Wormhole|Einstein-Rosen Bridges]] as ways to shorten distances from point A to point B. (''see [[Faster-than-light]] travel'').<ref name="clark98">Clark Jerome (1998), "The UFO Book: Encyclopedia of the Extraterrestrial", Visible Ink, {{ISBN|1-57859-029-9}}</ref>

According to the personal assessment of Hynek at the time, points 1 through 6 could be argued, but point 7 represented an "insurmountable" barrier to the validity of the ETH.<ref name="clark98"/>

===NASA===
[[NASA]] frequently fields questions in regard to the ETH and UFOs. As of 2006, its official standpoint was that ETH has a lack of empirical evidence.

:"no one has ever found a single artifact, or any other convincing evidence for such alien visits". David Morrison.<ref name=david2>Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (June 2006),  [http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1538 Ask an Astrobiologist] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060928234930/http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1538 |date=2006-09-28 }}, (October 2006)</ref>
:"As far as I know, no claims of UFOs as being alien craft have any validity -- the claims are without substance, and certainly not proved". David Morrison<ref name="david1">Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (July 2006),  [http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1551 Ask an Astrobiologist] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060928234811/http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1551 |date=2006-09-28 }}, (October 2006)</ref>

Despite public interest, up until 2021, NASA had considered the study of ETH to be irrelevant to its work because of the number of false leads that a study would provide, and the limited amount of usable scientific data that it would yield. {{Citation needed|date=October 2021|reason=This claim needs a citation.}}

===CIA===
The CIA organized the January 1953 [[Robertson Panel]] of scientists to debunk the data collected by the Air Force's Project Blue Book. This included an engineering analysis of UFO maneuvers by Blue Book (including a motion picture film analysis by Naval scientists) that had concluded UFOs were under intelligent control and likely extraterrestrial.<ref>Dolan, 189; Good, 287, 337; Ruppelt, Chapt. 16</ref>

===Official White House position===
In November 2011, the [[White House]] released an official response to two petitions asking the [[U.S. government]] to acknowledge formally that aliens have visited Earth and to disclose any intentional withholding of government interactions with extraterrestrial beings.  According to the response, "The U.S. government has no evidence that any life exists outside our planet, or that an extraterrestrial presence has contacted or engaged any member of the human race."<ref name="WhiteHouse">{{cite web|last=Larson|first=Phil|title=Searching for ET, But No Evidence Yet|url=https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/response/searching-et-no-evidence-yet|date=5 November 2011|publisher=White House|access-date=2011-11-06|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111124052154/https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/Petitions#!/response/searching-et-no-evidence-yet|archive-date=24 November 2011}}</ref><ref name="Atkinson">{{cite web |last=Atkinson |first=Nancy |title=No Alien Visits or UFO Coverups, White House Says|url=http://www.universetoday.com/90717/no-alien-visits-or-ufo-coverups-white-house-says/|date=5 November 2011 |publisher=[[UniverseToday]] |access-date=2011-11-06 }}</ref> Also, according to the response, there is "no credible information to suggest that any evidence is being hidden from the public's eye."<ref name="WhiteHouse"/><ref name="Atkinson"/>  The response further noted that efforts, like [[SETI]], the [[Kepler (spacecraft)|Kepler space telescope]] and the [[Mars Science Laboratory|NASA Mars rover]], continue looking for [[life|signs of life]]. The response noted "the odds are pretty high" that there may be life on other planets but "the odds of us making contact with any of them—especially any [[Extraterrestrial intelligence|intelligent ones]]—are extremely small, given the distances involved."<ref name="WhiteHouse"/><ref name="Atkinson"/>