Editing Hubbert peak theory (section)

===Growth-based economic models===
[[File:World energy consumption 2005-2035 EIA.png|thumb|[[World energy consumption]] & predictions, 2005–2035. ''Source: International Energy Outlook 2011.'']]
Insofar as [[economic growth]] is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed:<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976/ |title=Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History |publisher=Hubbertpeak.com |access-date=2013-11-03 |archive-date=2019-06-29 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190629214750/http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976/ |url-status=dead }}</ref>

{{blockquote|Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries, we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel, we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of non-growth. | M. King Hubbert | "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History"}}

Some economists describe the problem as [[uneconomic growth]] or a [[false economy]]. At the political right, [[Fred Ikle]] has warned about "conservatives addicted to the Utopia of Perpetual Growth".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://dieoff.org/page68.htm |title=Our Perpetual Growth Utopia |publisher=Dieoff.org |access-date=2013-11-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190428120557/http://dieoff.org/page68.htm |archive-date=2019-04-28 |url-status=dead }}</ref> Brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 markedly slowed—but did not stop—the growth of world [[GDP]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/pdf/050206.pdf |title=The Growth of World Trade and GDP: 1951-2005|website=IMF
|year=2006|access-date=28 June 2023}}</ref>

Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] transformed [[agriculture]] around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by [[fossil fuels]] in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html |title= Agriculture - how peak oil could lead to starvation|website=wolf.readinglitho.co.uk |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070818060558/http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html |archive-date=August 18, 2007}}</ref>

David Pimentel, professor of ecology and [[agriculture]] at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), in their 2003 study ''Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy'', placed the maximum [[U.S. population]] for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million (actual population approx. 290m in 2003, 329m in 2019). To achieve a sustainable economy [[world population]] will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.<ref>{{cite web |last=Cynic |first=Aaron |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html |title=Eating Fossil Fuels |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2003-10-02 |access-date=2013-11-03 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070611071544/http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html |archive-date=2007-06-11 }}</ref> Without population reduction, this study predicts an agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. 2050. The [[Peak oil|peaking of global oil]] along with the decline in regional [[natural gas]] production may precipitate this agricultural crisis sooner than generally expected. [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] claims that coming decades could see spiraling [[food prices]] without relief and massive [[starvation]] on a global level such as never experienced before.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil |title= Policy Reports &#124; Soil Association|website=www.soilassociation.org |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070928035437/http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil |archive-date=September 28, 2007}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225 |title=The Oil Drum: Europe &#124; Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference |publisher=Europe.theoildrum.com |access-date=2013-11-03}}</ref>