Editing Mainline Protestant (section)

==Statistical decline==
===United States===
The term "mainline" once implied a certain numerical majority or dominant presence in mainstream society, but that is no longer the case. Protestant churches as a whole have slowly declined in total membership since the 1960s. As the national population has grown these churches have shrunk from 63% of the population in 1970 to 54% by 2000, and 40% in 2024, ceasing to be the religious category for the majority of Americans.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/|title=Pew Research Center 2014 Religious Landscape Survey|date=12 May 2015}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Fahmy |first=Gregory A. Smith, Alan Cooperman, Becka A. Alper, Besheer Mohamed, Chip Rotolo, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Asta Kallo, Jeff Diamant and Dalia |date=2025-02-26 |title=1. Religious identity |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religious-landscape-study-religious-identity/ |access-date=2025-05-21 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}</ref> American affiliation with mainline denominations declined from 55% of all Protestants in 1973 to 29% in 2024.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Fahmy |first=Gregory A. Smith, Alan Cooperman, Becka A. Alper, Besheer Mohamed, Chip Rotolo, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Asta Kallo, Jeff Diamant and Dalia |date=2025-02-26 |title=1. Religious identity |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religious-landscape-study-religious-identity/#a-detailed-look-at-the-size-of-protestant-denominations |access-date=2025-05-21 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}</ref> The number of mainline congregations in the U.S. declined from more than 80,000 churches in the 1950s to about 72,000 in 2008.<ref name="Barna">[http://www.barna.org/barna-update/article/17-leadership/323-report-examines-the-state-of-mainline-protestant-churches Report Examines the State of Mainline Protestant Churches] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111106134955/http://www.barna.org/barna-update/article/17-leadership/323-report-examines-the-state-of-mainline-protestant-churches |date=2011-11-06 }} The Barna Group. December 7, 2009. Web: 12 Dec. 2009</ref> [[Robert Drinan]] estimated that there may have been a hundred million Mainline Protestants at one time in the United States.<ref name="k685">{{cite book | last=Drinan | first=R.F. | title=The Mobilization of Shame: A World View of Human Rights | publisher=Yale University Press | year=2001 | isbn=978-0-300-09319-3 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6OFAmyfarr4C&pg=PA166 | access-date=2024-11-22 | page=166}}</ref>

Various causes of mainline decline in population have been cited. Much analysis has taken place both from those within and outside mainline denominations. Key factors indicate that all types of churches can and do grow, regardless of hymnody or contemporary music, type of liturgy, average age of worshiper, or location<ref>{{cite web|title=MYTHS AND FACTS ABOUT EVANGELISM AND CHURCH GROWTH|date=17 February 2014 |url=http://www.uscongregations.org/blog/2014/02/17/myths-and-facts-about-evangelism-and-church-growth/|publisher=USCLS U.S. Congregational Life Survey|access-date=May 15, 2015}}</ref> On average, however, churches in rural areas, churches with older congregants, and churches with fewer young people involved struggle most to add members and grow churches. For example, of all churches founded since 1993, 54% are experiencing growth, compared to 28% of congregations founded prior to 1900.{{sfn|Hadaway|2011}} As demographics change, the churches founded by earlier generations often struggle to adapt to changing conditions, including the declines or shifts in the age and ethnicity of local populations. Says David Roozen, Director of Hartford Seminary's Hartford Institute for Religion Research, "Location, Location, Location used to be the kind way that researchers described the extent to which the growth or decline of American congregations was captive to the demographic changes going on in their immediate neighborhoods."<ref>{{cite web|title=Facts on Growth: 2010: If Congregations Can Change, They Can Grow|url=http://www.faithcommunitiestoday.org/facts-growth-2010|website=Faith Communities Today|publisher=Cooperative Congregations Studies Partnership|access-date=May 15, 2015}}</ref> Age demographics are also a real factor in congregational decline, with the birthrate for mainline Protestants well below what is needed to maintain membership numbers.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Gryboski|first1=Michael|url=http://www.christianpost.com/news/united-methodist-church-continues-to-decline-in-america-but-gains-in-africa-79384/|title=United Methodist Church Continues to Decline in America, but Gains in Africa|website=Christian Post|date=3 August 2012 |publisher=The Christian Post|access-date=May 15, 2015}}</ref>

The [[Barna Group]], an [[Evangelical]] surveyor, has noted that Protestant pastors who serve mainline churches serve on average half as long as Protestant pastors in non-mainline churches.<ref name="Barna" /> This may contribute to decline and may be influenced in part by the [[United Methodist Church]] practice of Itinerancy, where clergy are intentionally moved from one church to another as often as yearly in an effort to support and encourage the United Methodist tradition of strong lay ministry. Mainline churches have also had difficulty attracting minorities, particularly Hispanics. As of 2024, Hispanics comprise 6 percent of the mainline population but 19.5 percent of the US population.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Fahmy |first=Gregory A. Smith, Alan Cooperman, Becka A. Alper, Besheer Mohamed, Chip Rotolo, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Asta Kallo, Jeff Diamant and Dalia |date=2025-02-26 |title=24. Age, race, education and other demographic traits of U.S. religious groups |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/age-race-education-and-other-demographic-traits-of-us-religious-groups/ |access-date=2025-05-21 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Percentage of Hispanic population in the U.S. by state 2023 |url=https://www.statista.com/statistics/259865/percentage-of-hispanic-population-in-the-us-by-state/ |access-date=2025-05-21 |website=Statista |language=en}}</ref> According to the Barna Group report, the failure of mainline Protestants to add substantial numbers of Hispanics is portent for the future, given both the rapid increase of the Hispanic population as well as the outflow of Hispanics from Catholicism to Protestant churches in the past decade, most of whom are selecting evangelical or [[Pentecostal]] Protestant churches.<ref name="Barna" />

====Contrast with other Protestant denominations====
While various Protestant denominations have experienced declining membership, the most pronounced changes have occurred among mainline churches. Demographic trends for evangelical and historically [[African-American church]]es have been more stable. According to the Pew Research Center, mainline denominations could claim 11.5 percent of all US adults, compared to 23.1 percent who identified as evangelical in 2024.<ref name=":0" /><ref name="Chang">Chang, Perry. "Recent Changes in Membership and Attendance. " Presbyterian Church (U. S. A.) Nov. 2006. Web: [http://www.pcusa.org/research/reports/denominational_size.pdf Presbyterian Church (U. S. A.)] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100202221428/http://www.pcusa.org/research/reports/denominational_size.pdf |date=2010-02-02 }}</ref>

Demographers Hout, Greeley, and Wilde have attributed the long-term decline in mainline membership and the concomitant growth in the conservative Protestant denominations to four basic causes: birth rates; switching to conservative denominations; departure from Protestantism to "no religion" (i.e. secularization); and conversions from non-Protestant sources.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = }} In their analysis, by far the main cause is birth rates—low for the mainline bodies, and high for the conservatives. The second most important factor is that fewer conservatives switch to mainline denominations than before. Despite speculation to the contrary, Hout, Greeley, and Wilde argue that switching from a mainline to a conservative denomination is not important in accounting for the trend, because it is fairly constant over the decades. Finally, conservative denominations have had a greater inflow of converts.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = }} Their analysis gives no support for the notion that theological or [[social conservatism]] or liberalism has much impact on long-term growth trends.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = 494-5}}

Evidence from the [[General Social Survey]] indicates that higher fertility and earlier childbearing among women from conservative denominations explains 76% of the observed trend: conservative denominations have grown their own. Mainline denomination members have the lowest birthrate among American Christian groups. Unless there is a surge of new members, rising death rates are predicted to diminish their ranks even further in the years ahead.<ref name="Struckmeyer" />

====Trends====
[[File:Forest Hills Gardens, Queens, NY.jpg|thumb|right|[[Forest Hills, Queens]] in [[New York City]] area is an affluent area with a population of wealthy mainline Protestants]]
Some other findings:
* From 1958 to 2008, mainline church membership dropped by more than one-quarter to roughly 20 million people—15 percent of all American adults.<ref name="Barna" />
* From 1998 to 2008, there was a 22 percent drop in the percentage of adults attending mainline congregations who have children under the age of 18 living in their home.<ref name="Barna" />
* In 2009, nearly 40 percent of mainline church attendees were single. This increase has been driven higher by a rise in the number of divorced and widowed adherents.<ref name="Barna" />
* From 1998 to 2008, volunteerism dropped 21 percent; adult [[Sunday school]] participation decreased 17 percent.<ref name="Barna" />
* The average age of a mainline pastor in 1998 was 48 and increased to 55 by 2009.<ref name="Barna" />
* Pastors on average remain with a congregation for four years compared to twice that length for non-mainline church leaders.<ref name="Barna"/>
* The decline in mainline Protestant identification has been so steep that Evangelical identification has risen among Protestants, even as it has declined among all U.S. adults.<ref name=":0" />

The Pew Research Center's 2023-2024 Religious Landscape Study provide additional explanations for the decline.
* Evangelical church members are younger than those in mainline denominations. 14 percent of evangelical congregations are between 18 and 29 (compared to 11 percent of mainline protestants), 30 percent between 30 and 49 (versus 24), 28 percent between 50 and 64 (versus 27), and 27 percent 65 or older (versus 38).<ref>{{Cite web |last=Fahmy |first=Gregory A. Smith, Alan Cooperman, Becka A. Alper, Besheer Mohamed, Chip Rotolo, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Asta Kallo, Jeff Diamant and Dalia |date=2025-02-26 |title=24. Age, race, education and other demographic traits of U.S. religious groups |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/age-race-education-and-other-demographic-traits-of-us-religious-groups/#age |access-date=2025-05-21 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}</ref>

Not paralleling the decline in membership is the household income of members of mainline denominations. Overall, it is higher than that of evangelicals:
* 25% reported less than a $30,000 income per year.
* 21% reported $30,000–$49,999 per year.
* 18% reported $50,000–$74,999 per year.
* 15% reported $75,000–$99,999 per year.
* 21% reported an income of $100,000 per year or more, compared to 13 percent of evangelicals.{{sfn|Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life|2008b}}