Editing Climate model (section)

==History==
{{See also|History of climate change science}}
{{excerpt|Atmospheric model#Climate modeling}}

=== Increase of forecasts confidence over time ===
[[File:CMIP climate model progress.jpg|thumb|upright=1|right|The pattern correlation between global climate models and observations has improved over sequential CMIP phases 3, 5, and 6.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bock |first1=L. |last2=Lauer |first2=A. |last3=Schlund |first3=M. |last4=Barreiro |first4=M |last5=Bellouin |first5=N. |last6=Jones |first6=C. |last7=Meehl |first7=G.A. |last8=Predoi |first8=V. |last9=Roberts |first9=M.J. |last10=Eyring |first10=V. |title=Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=125 |issue=21 |year=2020 |doi=10.1029/2019JD032321 |doi-access=free|hdl=20.500.12008/30864 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>]]

The [[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project]] (CMIP) has been a leading effort to foster improvements in GCMs and climate change understanding since 1995.<ref>{{cite web |title=Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |url=https://wcrp-cmip.org |publisher=World Climate Research Program |access-date=11 November 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Meehl |first1=Gerald A. |last2=Boer |first2=George J. |last3=Covey |first3=Curt |last4=Latif |first4=Mojib |last5=Stouffer |first5=Ronald J. |title=Intercomparison makes for a better climate model |journal=Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union |volume=78 |number=41 |date=14 October 1997 |doi=10.1029/97EO00276 |doi-access=free}}</ref>

The IPCC stated in 2010 it has increased confidence in forecasts coming from climate models:<blockquote>"There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. This confidence comes from the foundation of the models in accepted physical principles and from their ability to reproduce observed features of current climate and past climate changes. Confidence in model estimates is higher for some climate variables (e.g., temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation). Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases."<ref>{{cite web |title=Climate Models and Their Evaluation |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100922124304/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf |archive-date=22 September 2010 |access-date=29 August 2010 |df=dmy-all}}</ref></blockquote>