Editing Pascal's wager (section)

== Earlier versions and other wager arguments ==

* The [[sophist]] [[Protagoras]] had an agnostic position regarding the gods, but he nevertheless continued to worship the gods. This could be considered as an early version of the Wager.<ref>{{cite book|title=Socrates & the fat rabbis|url=https://archive.org/details/socratesfatrabbi00boya|url-access=limited|last=Boyarin|first=Daniel|publisher=University of Chicago Press|year=2009|isbn=978-0-226-06916-6|page=[https://archive.org/details/socratesfatrabbi00boya/page/n62 48]|author-link=Daniel Boyarin}}</ref>
* In the famous tragedy of [[Euripides]] ''[[The Bacchae|Bacchae]]'', [[Kadmos]] states an early version of Pascal's wager. It is noteworthy that at the end of the tragedy [[Dionysos]], the god to whom Kadmos referred, appears and punishes him for thinking in this way. Euripides, quite clearly, considered and dismissed the wager in this tragedy.<ref>{{cite book|title=Plots of epiphany: prison-escape in Acts of the Apostles|last=Weaver|first=John B.|publisher=Walter de Gruyter|year=2004|isbn=978-3-11-018266-8|pages=453–454, 595|author-link=John B. Weaver}}</ref>
* The [[Stoicism|stoic philosopher]] and [[Roman emperor|Roman Emperor]] [[Marcus Aurelius]] expressed a similar sentiment in the second book of ''[[Meditations]]'', saying "Since it is possible that thou mayest depart from life this very moment, regulate every act and thought accordingly. But to go away from among men, if there are gods, is not a thing to be afraid of, for the gods will not involve thee in evil; but if indeed they do not exist, or if they have no concern about human affairs, what is it to me to live in a universe devoid of gods or devoid of Providence?"<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://classics.mit.edu/Antoninus/meditations.2.two.html|title=The Internet Classics Archive {{!}} The Meditations by Marcus Aurelius|website=classics.mit.edu|access-date=2019-01-27}}</ref>
* The [[early Buddhist texts]] contain passages which defend [[Rebirth (Buddhism)#Pragmatic arguments and wager theories|a Buddhist wager argument]] for believing in an [[afterlife]].<ref>{{Cite book |last=Jayatilleke |first=K N |date=2013-10-16 |title=Early Buddhist Theory of Knowledge |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315888347 |doi=10.4324/9781315888347|isbn=9781134542871 }}</ref>
* In the [[Sanskrit]] classic ''Sārasamuccaya'', <!-- WAIT--WAIT! Before you remove the brackets, consider writing a new article! -- Paine -->[[Vararuci]] makes a similar argument to Pascal's wager.<ref>[[Nicholas Ostler|Ostler, Nicholas]] (2005). ''Empires of the Word''. HarperCollins.</ref>
* Muslim [[Imamah (Shia)|Imam]] [[Ja'far al-Sadiq]] is recorded to have postulated variations of the wager on several occasions in different forms, including his famed 'Tradition of the Myrobalan Fruit.'<ref>{{cite web |website=[[Ahlul Bayt Digital Islamic Library Project|Al-Islam.org]] |date=2017 |title=The Hadith |department=Tradition of the Myrobalan Fruit |url=https://www.al-islam.org/tradition-myrobalan-fruit-hadith-al-halila-imam-jafar-al-sadiq/hadith}}</ref> In the [[Shia Islam|Shi'i]] [[hadith]] book [[al-Kafi]], al-Sadiq declares to an atheist "If what you say is correct – and it is not – then we will both succeed. But if what I say is correct – and it is – then I will succeed, and you will be destroyed."<ref>al-Kulainī, M. (1982). al- Kāfī. Tehran: Group of Muslim Brothers.</ref>
* An instantiation of this [[argument]], within the Islamic ''kalam'' tradition, was discussed by [[Al-Juwayni|Imam al-Haramayn al-Juwayni]] (d. 478/1085) in his ''Kitab al-irshad ila-qawati al-adilla fi usul al-i'tiqad'', or ''A Guide to the Conclusive Proofs for the Principles of Belief''.<ref>[[al-Juwayni]] ''A Guide to Conclusive Proofs for the Principles of Belief'', 6</ref> <!-- Anyone want to write a little about what makes Juwayni's argument different from Pascal's? -->
* The Christian apologist [[Arnobius of Sicca]] (d. 330) stated an early version of the argument in his book ''Against the Pagans'', arguing "is it not more rational, of two things uncertain and hanging in doubtful suspense, rather to believe that which carries with it some hopes, than that which brings none at all?"<ref name=Frabook>{{cite book |last=Franklin |first=James |author-link=James Franklin (philosopher) |date=2001 |editor-last1=Bartha |editor-first1=P. |editor-last2=Pasternack |editor-first2=L. |title=Classic Philosophical Arguments: Pascal's Wager |chapter=Pascal’s wager and the origins of decision theory: decision-making by real decision-makers |chapter-url=http://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~jim/pascalswagerbarthascan.pdf |location=Cambridge |publisher=Cambridge University Press |pages=27–44 |isbn=978-1107181434}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |title=The pillar and ground of the truth (1914)|last= Aleksandrovich Florenskiĭ|first=Pavel|author-link=Pavel Florensky|year=1997 |publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=0-691-03243-2 |page=37 }}</ref>
* A close parallel just before Pascal's time occurred in the Jesuit Antoine Sirmond's ''On the Immortality of the Soul'' (1635), which explicitly compared the choice of religion to playing dice and argued "However long and happy the space of this life may be, while ever you place it in the other pan of the balance against a blessed and flourishing eternity, surely it will seem to you ... that the pan will rise on high."<ref name=Frabook />{{rp|30}}
* The [[Atheist's Wager]], popularised by the philosopher [[Michael Martin (philosopher)|Michael Martin]] and published in his 1990 book ''Atheism: A Philosophical Justification'', is an atheistic wager argument in response to Pascal's wager.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Martin |first1=Michael |title=Atheism: A Philosophical Justification |chapter-url=https://archive.org/details/atheismphilosoph00mart_0/page/228/mode/2up |date=1990 |publisher=Temple University Press |location=Philadelphia |isbn=9780877226420 |chapter=9}}</ref>
* A 2008 philosophy book, ''[[How to Make Good Decisions and Be Right All the Time]]'', presents a secular revision of Pascal's wager: "What does it hurt to pursue value and virtue? If there is value, then we have everything to gain, but if there is none, then we haven’t lost anything.... Thus, we should seek value."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://andphilosophy.com/2014/07/16/24-and-philosophy/|title=24 and Philosophy|date=July 16, 2014}}</ref>
* [[Pascal's mugging]], a dialogue written by philosopher [[Nick Bostrom]], shows that a rational victim can be made to give up his wallet in exchange for a weakly credible promise of astronomical repayment.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bostrom |first=Nick |date=July 2009 |title=Pascal's mugging |url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/pascals-mugging.pdf |access-date=25 May 2022 |website=Future of Humanity Institute}}</ref> As in Pascal's Wager, a small but certain downside is outweighed by a large but unlikely upside.
* [[Roko's basilisk]] is a hypothetical future [[superintelligence]] that punishes everyone who failed to help bring it into existence.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Paul-Choudhury |first1=Sumit |title=Tomorrow's Gods: What is the future of religion? |url=https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190801-tomorrows-gods-what-is-the-future-of-religion |access-date=28 August 2020 |work=BBC |language=en}}</ref>
* In a 2014 article, philosopher Justin McBrayer argued we ought to remain agnostic about the existence of God but nonetheless believe because of the good that comes in the present life from believing in God. "The gist of the renewed wager is that theists do better than non-theists regardless of whether or not God exists."<ref>{{cite journal |last=McBrayer |first=Justin P. |date=23 September 2014 |title=The Wager Renewed: Believing in God is Good for You |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/08c259_ddaba160e3bd4bfcb8ae1cc82afeab5f.pdf |journal=Science, Religion and Culture |volume=1 |issue=3 |pages=130–140 |access-date=29 September 2019}}</ref>

=== Climate change ===

Since at least 1992, some scholars have analogized Pascal's wager to decisions about [[climate change]].<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Orr | first1 = D. W. | year = 1992 | title = Pascals wager and economics in a hotter time | journal = Ecological Economics | volume = 6 | issue = 1| pages = 1–6 | doi = 10.1016/0921-8009(92)90035-q | bibcode = 1992EcoEc...6....1O }}</ref> Two differences from Pascal's wager are posited regarding climate change: first, climate change is more likely than Pascal's God to exist, as there is scientific evidence for one but not the other.<ref>{{cite news |first=Green |last=Nathan |date=July 3, 2012 |title= How to bet on climate change |url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/jul/03/climate-change-pascal-wager |work=[[The Guardian]] |access-date=May 25, 2020}}</ref> Secondly, the calculated penalty for unchecked climate change would be large, but is not generally considered to be infinite.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=van der Ploeg |first1=Frederick |last2=Rezai |first2=Armon |title=The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon! |journal=European Economic Review |date=January 2019 |volume=111 |pages=70–84 |language=en |doi=10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.08.010|s2cid=158123994 |url=https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:38033b72-ccde-4b67-b115-38644394e7b1 }}</ref> Magnate [[Warren Buffett]] has written that climate change "bears a similarity to Pascal's Wager on the Existence of God. Pascal, it may be recalled, argued that if there were only a tiny probability that God truly existed, it made sense to behave as if He did because the rewards could be infinite whereas the lack of belief risked eternal misery. Likewise, if there is only a 1% chance the planet is heading toward a truly major disaster and delay means passing a point of no return, inaction now is foolhardy."<ref>{{cite web |last=Buffet |first=W. |date=February 27, 2016 |title=To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. |url=http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf |publisher=Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. |access-date=May 25, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Oyedele |first1=Akin |title=Warren Buffett on global warming: 'This issue bears a similarity to Pascal's Wager on the Existence of God.' |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-on-climate-change-2016-2 |access-date=25 February 2020 |work=Business Insider |date=2019}}</ref>