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Prediction
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==Social science== Prediction in the non-economic social sciences differs from the natural sciences and includes multiple alternative methods such as trend projection, forecasting, scenario-building and Delphi surveys. The oil company Shell is particularly well known for its scenario-building activities.{{Citation needed|date=January 2023}} One reason for the peculiarity of societal prediction is that in the social sciences, "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process".<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal|last=Overland|first=Indra|date=2019-03-01|title=The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths|journal=Energy Research & Social Science|volume=49|pages=36β40|doi=10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.018|issn=2214-6296|doi-access=free|bibcode=2019ERSS...49...36O |hdl=11250/2579292|hdl-access=free}}</ref> As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a forecast that a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue.<ref name=":0" /> [[File:2004 canadian election approval ratings June 2.png|thumb|right|180px|[[Approval rating]]s (percentages) for the 2004 Canadian federal election]] In [[politics]] it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of [[elections]] via [[political forecasting]] techniques (or assess the popularity of [[politicians]]) through the use of [[opinion polls]]. [[Prediction games]] have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.
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