Editing Recession (section)

==Stock market==

Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In ''[[Stocks for the Long Run]]'', Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] were not followed by a recession.<ref>Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002). ''Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies'', 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. {{ISBN|978-0-07-137048-6}}</ref>

The [[real estate]] market also usually weakens before a recession.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://lvrg.org.au/blog/2009/06/from-subprime-to-terrigenous-recession.html |title=From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home |publisher=Land Values Research Group |date=2 June 2009 |quote=A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a ''leading'' indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters... |access-date=16 June 2009 |archive-date=12 June 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090612043622/http://lvrg.org.au/blog/2009/06/from-subprime-to-terrigenous-recession.html |url-status=live }}</ref> However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.<ref>{{cite news |first=Robert J. |last=Shiller |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/business/economy/07view.html |title=Why Home Prices May Keep Falling |work=The New York Times |date=6 June 2009 |access-date=10 April 2010 |archive-date=3 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200703072950/https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/business/economy/07view.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel has argued that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the [[National Bureau of Economic Research]] (NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/10/AR2007121001589.html |title=Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions |first=Allan |last=Sloan |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] |date=11 December 2007 |access-date=10 September 2017 |archive-date=28 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728104140/https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/10/AR2007121001589.html |url-status=live }}</ref>