Editing Cascadia subduction zone (section)

=== Forecasts of the next major earthquake ===
{{See also|1700 Cascadia earthquake#Future threats}}
Prior to the 1980s, scientists thought that the subduction zone did not generate earthquakes like other subduction zones around the world, but research by [[Brian Atwater]] and [[Kenji Satake]] tied together evidence of a large tsunami on the Washington coast with documentation of an orphan tsunami in Japan (a tsunami without an associated earthquake). The two pieces of the puzzle were linked, and they then realized that the subduction zone was more hazardous than previously suggested.

In 2009, some geologists predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia subduction zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years.<ref name="Sooner">{{cite news | url = http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/big_earthquake_coming_sooner_t.html | newspaper = [[The Oregonian]] | title=Big earthquake coming sooner than we thought, Oregon geologist says | date=April 19, 2009 | first = Lori | last = Tobias }}</ref> In 2010, studies suggested that the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher.<ref>{{cite news | url = http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100531/full/news.2010.270.html | title = Risk of giant quake off American west coast goes up | first = Richard A. | last = Lovett | access-date = 2010-06-08 | doi = 10.1038/news.2010.270 | journal = [[Nature (journal)|Nature]] | date = 31 May 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite press release | url = https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100524121250.htm | title = Odds are about 1-in-3 that mega-earthquake will hit Pacific Northwest in next 50 years, scientists say | date = May 25, 2010 | publisher = [[Oregon State University]] | via = [[Science Daily]] }}</ref>

Geologists and civil engineers have broadly determined that the Pacific Northwest region is not well prepared for such a colossal earthquake. The earthquake is expected to be similar to the [[2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami]], because the rupture is expected to be as long as the [[2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami]]. The resulting [[tsunami]] might reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100&nbsp;ft).<ref name="Sooner"/> [[FEMA]] estimates some 13,000 fatalities from such an event, with another 27,000 injured, which would make it the deadliest natural disaster in American, and North American, history.<ref name="Schulz2015" /><ref>{{Cite web|last=Roos|first=Dave|date=2020-09-18|title=The Deadliest Natural Disasters in U.S. History|url=https://www.history.com/news/deadliest-natural-disasters-us-storm-flood-hurricane-fire|url-status=live|access-date=2021-06-21|website=HISTORY|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181203045559/https://www.history.com/news/deadliest-natural-disasters-us-storm-flood-hurricane-fire |archive-date=2018-12-03 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Powell|first=Kimberly|date=2018-07-19|title=10 Deadliest Natural Disasters in U.S. History|url=https://www.thoughtco.com/top-deadliest-us-natural-disasters-1422019|url-status=live|access-date=2021-06-21|website=ThoughtCo.|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171014183218/https://www.thoughtco.com/top-deadliest-us-natural-disasters-1422019 |archive-date=2017-10-14 }}</ref> FEMA further predicts that a million people will be displaced, with yet another 2.5 million requiring food and water. An estimated 1/3 of public safety workers will not respond to the disaster due to a collapse in infrastructure and a desire to ensure the safety of themselves and their loved ones.<ref name="Schulz2015" /> Other analyses predict that even a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in Seattle would result in 7,700 dead and injured, $33 billion in damage, 39,000 buildings severely damaged or destroyed, and 130 simultaneous fires.<ref name = Smithsonian/>