Editing Mainline Protestant (section)

====Contrast with other Protestant denominations====
While various Protestant denominations have experienced declining membership, the most pronounced changes have occurred among mainline churches. Demographic trends for evangelical and historically [[African-American church]]es have been more stable. According to the Pew Research Center, mainline denominations could claim 11.5 percent of all US adults, compared to 23.1 percent who identified as evangelical in 2024.<ref name=":0" /><ref name="Chang">Chang, Perry. "Recent Changes in Membership and Attendance. " Presbyterian Church (U. S. A.) Nov. 2006. Web: [http://www.pcusa.org/research/reports/denominational_size.pdf Presbyterian Church (U. S. A.)] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100202221428/http://www.pcusa.org/research/reports/denominational_size.pdf |date=2010-02-02 }}</ref>

Demographers Hout, Greeley, and Wilde have attributed the long-term decline in mainline membership and the concomitant growth in the conservative Protestant denominations to four basic causes: birth rates; switching to conservative denominations; departure from Protestantism to "no religion" (i.e. secularization); and conversions from non-Protestant sources.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = }} In their analysis, by far the main cause is birth rates—low for the mainline bodies, and high for the conservatives. The second most important factor is that fewer conservatives switch to mainline denominations than before. Despite speculation to the contrary, Hout, Greeley, and Wilde argue that switching from a mainline to a conservative denomination is not important in accounting for the trend, because it is fairly constant over the decades. Finally, conservative denominations have had a greater inflow of converts.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = }} Their analysis gives no support for the notion that theological or [[social conservatism]] or liberalism has much impact on long-term growth trends.{{Sfn | Hout | Greeley | Wilde | 2001 | p = 494-5}}

Evidence from the [[General Social Survey]] indicates that higher fertility and earlier childbearing among women from conservative denominations explains 76% of the observed trend: conservative denominations have grown their own. Mainline denomination members have the lowest birthrate among American Christian groups. Unless there is a surge of new members, rising death rates are predicted to diminish their ranks even further in the years ahead.<ref name="Struckmeyer" />