Editing Numerical weather prediction (section)

===Tropical cyclone forecasting===
{{see also|Tropical cyclone forecast model}}
Tropical cyclone forecasting also relies on data provided by numerical weather models. Three main classes of [[Tropical cyclone forecast model|tropical cyclone guidance models]] exist: Statistical models are based on an analysis of storm behavior using climatology, and correlate a storm's position and date to produce a forecast that is not based on the physics of the atmosphere at the time. Dynamical models are numerical models that solve the governing equations of fluid flow in the atmosphere; they are based on the same principles as other limited-area numerical weather prediction models but may include special computational techniques such as refined spatial domains that move along with the cyclone. Models that use elements of both approaches are called statistical-dynamical models.<ref>{{cite web|title=Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/model_summary_20090724.pdf|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|access-date=2011-02-19|author=[[National Hurricane Center]]|date=July 2009}}</ref>

In 1978, the first [[tropical cyclone forecast model|hurricane-tracking model]] based on [[Atmospheric dynamics#Dynamic meteorology|atmospheric dynamics]]—the movable fine-mesh (MFM) model—began operating.<ref name="Shuman W&F"/> Within the field of [[tropical cyclone track forecasting]], despite the ever-improving dynamical model guidance which occurred with increased computational power, it was not until the 1980s when numerical weather prediction showed [[Forecast skill|skill]], and until the 1990s when it consistently outperformed [[statistical model|statistical]] or simple dynamical models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml|publisher=[[National Hurricane Center]]|date=2010-04-20|access-date=2011-01-02|author=Franklin, James|title=National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification|author-link=James Franklin (meteorologist)}}</ref> Predictions of the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on numerical weather prediction continue to be a challenge, since statistical methods continue to show higher skill over dynamical guidance.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Rappaport, Edward N. |author2=Franklin, James L. |author3=Avila, Lixion A. |author4=Baig, Stephen R. |author5=Beven II, John L. |author6=Blake, Eric S. |author7=Burr, Christopher A. |author8=Jiing, Jiann-Gwo |author9=Juckins, Christopher A. |author10=Knabb, Richard D. |author11=Landsea, Christopher W. |author12=Mainelli, Michelle |author13=Mayfield, Max |author14=McAdie, Colin J. |author15=Pasch, Richard J. |author16=Sisko, Christopher |author17=Stewart, Stacy R. |author18=Tribble, Ahsha N.|title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=April 2009|volume=24|issue=2|pages=395–419|doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1|bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R|citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667 |s2cid=14845745 }}</ref>