Editing Weather forecasting (section)

===Atmospheric model===
{{Main|Atmospheric model}}
[[File:NAM 500 MB.PNG|thumb|An example of 500 [[millibar|mbar]] [[geopotential height]] prediction from a numerical weather prediction model]]
In the past, human forecasters were responsible for generating the weather forecast based upon available observations.<ref>[[NASA]]. [http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html "Weather Forecasting Through the Ages"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050910210732/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html |date=September 10, 2005 }}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Today, human input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance.<ref name="Klaus">Klaus Weickmann, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (December 1, 2001). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ "The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15&nbsp;days) Weather Forecasts"]. [[Climate Diagnostics Center]]. Retrieved February 16, 2007. {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090827021959/http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ |date=August 27, 2009 }}</ref> Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error.<ref name="TBK">Todd Kimberlain (June 2007). [http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt "TC Genesis, Track, and Intensity Forecating"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210227154914/http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt |date=February 27, 2021 }}. PowerPoint. Retrieved July 21, 2007.</ref> However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particular piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run.<ref>Richard J. Pasch, Mike Fiorino, and [[Chris Landsea]]. [http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/NCEP-EMCModelReview2006/TPC-NCEP2006.ppt "TPC/NHC'S Review of the NCEP Production Suite for 2006"]. Retrieved May 5, 2008.{{dead link|date=October 2017}}</ref> Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecasting models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecasting process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Roebber |first1=P. J. |last2=Bosart |first2=L. F. |url=http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2512901 |title=The complex relationship between forecasting skill and forecast value : A real-world analysis |journal=Weather and Forecasting |issn=0882-8156 |year=1996 |volume=11 |issue=4 |pages=544–559 |access-date=May 25, 2008 |bibcode=1996WtFor..11..544R |doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0544:TCRBFS>2.0.CO;2 |s2cid=15191426 |doi-access=free |archive-date=August 16, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110816214902/http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2512901 |url-status=live }}</ref>