Editing Terminal illness (section)

=== Mortality predictions ===
Often, a patient is considered terminally ill when his or her estimated life expectancy is six months or less, under the assumption that the disease will run its normal course based on previous data from other patients. The six-month standard is arbitrary, and best available estimates of longevity may be incorrect. Though a given patient may properly be considered terminal, this is not a guarantee that the patient will die within six months.  Similarly, a patient with a slowly progressing disease, such as [[AIDS]], may not be considered terminally ill if the best estimate of longevity is greater than six months. However, this does not guarantee that the patient will not die unexpectedly early.<ref name="titleTerminal Illness2">{{cite web|url=http://www.ascensionhealth.org/ethics/public/issues/terminal.asp|title=Terminal Illness|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071013074453/http://www.ascensionhealth.org/ethics/public/issues/terminal.asp|archive-date=2007-10-13}}</ref>

In general, physicians slightly overestimate the survival time of terminally ill cancer patients, so that, for example, a person who is expected to live for about six weeks would likely die around four weeks.<ref name="pmid12881260">{{cite journal|author=Glare P|author2=Virik K|author3=Jones M|last4=Hudson|first4=M|last5=Eychmuller|first5=S|last6=Simes|first6=J|last7=Christakis|first7=N|display-authors=3|year=2003|title=A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients|journal=[[BMJ]]|volume=327|issue=7408|pages=195–8|doi=10.1136/bmj.327.7408.195|pmc=166124|pmid=12881260|name-list-style=vanc}}</ref>

A recent systematic review on palliative patients in general, rather than specifically cancer patients, states the following: "Accuracy of categorical estimates in this systematic review ranged from 23% up to 78% and continuous estimates over-predicted actual survival by, potentially, a factor of two." There was no evidence that any specific type of clinician was better at making these predictions.<ref name="White-2016">{{Cite journal|last1=White|first1=Nicola|last2=Reid|first2=Fiona|last3=Harris|first3=Adam|last4=Harries|first4=Priscilla|last5=Stone|first5=Patrick|date=2016-08-25|title=A Systematic Review of Predictions of Survival in Palliative Care: How Accurate Are Clinicians and Who Are the Experts?|journal=PLOS ONE|volume=11|issue=8|pages=e0161407|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0161407|pmid=27560380|pmc=4999179|issn=1932-6203|bibcode=2016PLoSO..1161407W|doi-access=free}}</ref>