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Hubbert peak theory
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===Fissionable materials=== {{Main|Peak uranium}} In a paper in 1956,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf |title=Nuclear Energy And The Fossil Fuels |author=M. King Hubbert |date=June 1956 |publisher=[[Shell Development Company]] |access-date=2013-12-27 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf |archive-date=2008-05-27 }}</ref> after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power: {{cquote|There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may, at last, have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."}} As of 2015, the identified resources of uranium are sufficient to provide more than 135 years of supply at the present rate of consumption.<ref name="Red Book">{{cite book |author=[[Nuclear Energy Agency|NEA]], [[IAEA]] |year=2016 |title=Uranium 2016 β Resources, Production and Demand |url=https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2016/7301-uranium-2016.pdf |isbn=978-92-64-26844-9 |publisher=[[OECD|OECD Publishing]] |doi=10.1787/uranium-2016-en}}</ref> Technologies such as the [[thorium fuel cycle]], [[nuclear reprocessing|reprocessing]] and [[Fast breeder reactor|fast breeders]] can, in theory, extend the life of [[uranium]] reserves from hundreds to thousands of years.<ref name="Red Book"/> Caltech physics professor [[David Goodstein]] stated in 2004<ref>{{cite web|last=Jones|first=Tony|title=Professor Goodstein discusses lowering oil reserves|url=http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2004/s1249211.htm|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|access-date=14 April 2013|date=23 November 2004|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130509063107/http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2004/s1249211.htm|archive-date=2013-05-09|url-status=dead}}</ref> that {{cquote|... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.}}
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