Editing Primary biliary cholangitis (section)

==Prognosis==
The introduction of UDCA has dramatically changed the pattern and the course of the disease. Numerous trials and observational studies have demonstrated its efficacy on liver biochemistry, histological progression, and transplant-free survival.<ref name="pmid23246637">{{cite journal | vauthors = Carbone M, Mells GF, Pells G, Dawwas MF, Newton JL, Heneghan MA, Neuberger JM, Day DB, Ducker SJ, Sandford RN, Alexander GJ, Jones DE | display-authors = 6 | title = Sex and age are determinants of the clinical phenotype of primary biliary cirrhosis and response to ursodeoxycholic acid | journal = Gastroenterology | volume = 144 | issue = 3 | pages = 560–569 | date = March 2013 | pmid = 23246637 | doi = 10.1053/j.gastro.2012.12.005 | doi-access = free }}</ref>

Among the UDCA-treated patients, the degree of the liver biochemistry improvement, i.e. the UDCA-response, identifies patients with different long-term prognosis. In the absence of cirrhosis, people who experience an improvement of liver enzymes to the normal range on treatment with UDCA have excellent survival, which may be similar to the general population.<ref name=Lleo>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lleo A, Wang GQ, Gershwin ME, Hirschfield GM | title = Primary biliary cholangitis | journal = Lancet | volume = 396 | issue = 10266 | pages = 1915–1926 | date = December 2020 | pmid = 33308474 | doi = 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31607-X | s2cid = 228086916 }}</ref> Survival is significantly reduced though, in those with abnormal liver biochemistry on treatment.

The two most important parameters in evaluating response to UDCA are alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin. Qualitative and quantitative definitions of UDCA-response have been developed, based on changes of bilirubin, transaminases and ALP, after a period of 6 to 24 months of treatment with UDCA at 13–15&nbsp;mg/kg/day.<ref name="pmid30420264 ">{{cite journal | vauthors = Cristoferi L, Nardi A, Ronca V, Invernizzi P, Mells G, Carbone M | title = Prognostic models in primary biliary cholangitis | journal = Journal of Autoimmunity | volume = 95 | issue = 1 | pages = 171–178 | date = December 2018 | pmid = 30420264 | doi = 10.1016/j.jaut.2018.10.024 | s2cid = 53292973 }}</ref>

Patients at diagnosis can be risk-stratified based on the probability of UDCA-response. This is relevant to identify patients who would be eligible for second-line therapies before waiting for the treatment failure under UDCA, with potential impact on disease course.<ref name="pmid30017646">{{cite journal | vauthors = Carbone M, Nardi A, Flack S, Carpino G, Varvaropoulou N, Gavrila C, Spicer A, Badrock J, Bernuzzi F, Cardinale V, Ainsworth HF, Heneghan MA, Thorburn D, Bathgate A, Jones R, Neuberger JM, Battezzati PM, Zuin M, Taylor-Robinson S, Donato MF, Kirby J, Mitchell-Thain R, Floreani A, Sampaziotis F, Muratori L, Alvaro D, Marzioni M, Miele L, Marra F, Giannini E, Gaudio E, Ronca V, Bonato G, Cristoferi L, Malinverno F, Gerussi A, Stocken DD, Cordell HJ, Hirschfield GM, Alexander GJ, Sandford RN, Jones DE, Invernizzi P, Mells GF | display-authors = 6 | title = Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score | journal = The Lancet. Gastroenterology & Hepatology | volume = 3 | issue = 9 | pages = 626–634 | date = September 2018 | pmid = 30017646 | pmc = 6962055 | doi = 10.1016/S2468-1253(18)30163-8 }}</ref>

[[Hepatocellular carcinoma]] (HCC) is infrequent in PBC. Recent large-scale cohort studies highlighted that the lack of UDCA-response after 12 months of therapy and male sex are associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC.

After liver transplant, the recurrence of disease may be as high as 18% at five years, and up to 30% at 10 years. No consensus exists on risk factors for recurrence of the disease.<ref name="k&c-p429">{{harvnb|Clavien|Killenberg|2006|p=429}}</ref>