Editing Kyoto Protocol (section)

==== Relation to temperature targets ====
At the [[2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference|16th Conference of the Parties]] held in 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited [[2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference#Outcome|below 2°C]] relative to the pre-industrial temperature level.<ref>{{citation |author=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC) |title=Conference of the Parties - Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4 |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2 |page=3 |year=2011 |location=[[Bonn]], [[Germany]] |publisher=UNFCCC Secretariat |format=PDF |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-date=13 January 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200113095453/https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2 |url-status=live }}</ref> One of the stabilization levels discussed in relation to this temperature target is to hold atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at 450 [[parts per million]] (ppm) {{CO2}}- eq.<ref>{{citation |author=[[International Energy Agency]] (IEA) |title=World Energy Outlook 2010 |page=380 |year=2010 |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120715234406/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf |url-status=dead |chapter=13. Energy and the ultimate climate change target |chapter-url=http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf |location=Paris, France |publisher=IEA |isbn=978-92-64-08624-1 |archive-date=15 July 2012 |title-link=World Energy Outlook}}</ref> Stabilization at 450&nbsp;ppm could be associated with a 26 to 78% risk of exceeding the 2&nbsp;°C target.<ref>{{citation |last1=Levin |first1=K. |title=Working Paper: Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges |date=February 2010 |url=http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/comparability_of_annex1_emission_reduction_pledges_2010-02-01.pdf |page=16 |location=Washington DC, USA |publisher=[[World Resources Institute]] |last2=Bradley |first2=R. |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-date=13 May 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130513000602/http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/comparability_of_annex1_emission_reduction_pledges_2010-02-01.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref>

Scenarios assessed by Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios">{{citation |last1=Gupta |first1=S. |title=Box 13.7 The range of the difference between emissions in 1990 and emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various GHG concentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group |df=dmy-all |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121210151654/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html |url-status=dead |chapter=Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements |chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html |display-authors=etal |archive-date=10 December 2012}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}</ref> suggest that Annex I emissions would need to be 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The only Annex I Parties to have made voluntary pledges in line with this are Japan (25% below 1990 levels by 2020) and Norway (30–40% below 1990 levels by 2020).<ref>
{{citation |author=King, D. |title=International climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps |date=July 2011 |url=http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf |page=12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120113033748/http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf |url-status=dead |chapter=Copenhagen and Cancun |location=Oxford, UK |publisher=Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford |display-authors=etal |archive-date=13 January 2012}}
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Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios" /> also looked at what 450&nbsp;ppm scenarios projected for non-Annex I Parties. Projections indicated that by 2020, non-Annex I emissions in several regions ([[Latin America]], the [[Middle East]], [[East Asia]], and [[planned economy|centrally planned]] [[Asia]]) would need to be substantially reduced below [[Economics of climate change mitigation#Baselines|"business-as-usual"]].<ref name="450ppm scenarios" /> "Business-as-usual" are projected non-Annex I emissions in the absence of any new policies to control emissions. Projections indicated that by 2050, emissions in all non-Annex I regions would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".<ref name="450ppm scenarios" />