Editing Handicapping (section)

==Outcome prediction==
===Middle and arbitrage bets===
There are strategies that involve differences in the lines on the same event at different books. One bet is called a "middle", which when a player finds two books that offer different point spreads for the same event. They will bet the more favorable spread at both books, and if the final score falls between the two, the bettor will win both bets. On the other hand, if the total falls outside the range of the "middle" the bettor only loses a small percentage of a bet (the "juice" or "vig" taken by the house).

For example, Book 1 has Team A as a 3-point favorite, and Book 2 has team B as a 3-point favorite. If a player bets Team B at Book 1, and Team A at Book 2, he will win both bets if either side wins by 2 or fewer points, and will win one bet and lose the other (known as a "side") if either team wins by 3 points.

Another strategy, known as arbitrage, or an "arb" or "scalp", involves finding different moneylines for the same event. In this case, the bettor will bet the more favorable line at both books, and have a guaranteed profit. For example, if Book 1 considers Team A to be worth +200 (2-to-1 underdog), and Book 2 considers Team B to be worth +200, a bettor can bet Team A at Book 1, and Team B at Book 2, and guarantee a 100% profit. This is a no-risk bet, as the player is guaranteed a profit no matter the result of the game.{{citation needed|date=October 2013}}

===Famous US handicappers===
The first very well known sports handicapper in American culture was [[Jimmy Snyder (sports commentator)|Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder]].<ref>{{cite news|last=Pace|first=Eric|title=Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder; A Sports Oddsmaker|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1996/04/22/sports/jimmy-the-greek-snyder-76-is-dead-a-sports-oddsmaker.html|work=The New York Times|date=22 April 1996|access-date= }}</ref> During his career he worked for [[CBS]] on their Sunday morning show, ''[[The NFL Today]]''. Because sports betting had a social taboo at the time, Snyder was not allowed to mention betting on games specifically. Instead, he would predict the score. Over the years the attitude towards sports betting, and handicapping in general, has changed. [[Billy Walters (gambler)|Billy Walters]] was profiled by ''[[60 Minutes]]'' because of his handicapping abilities.<ref>{{cite web|last=Logan|first=Lara|title=Sports Betting: Billy Walters|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/varchive/youtube/20211212/d6FAUQ6SFKM| archive-date=2021-12-12 |url-status=live|work=CBSNewsOnline|access-date=16 January 2011}}{{cbignore}}</ref> Billy Walters, and other unknown members of the Computer Group, developed a system for handicapping games and beating [[Las Vegas Valley|Las Vegas]] sportsbooks. [[ESPN]] wrote an article on [[Haralabos Voulgaris]] naming him as one of the premier [[National Basketball Association|NBA]] handicappers in the world.<ref>{{cite web|last=Eden|first=Scott|title=Meet The World's Top NBA Gambler|url=https://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler|work=ESPN The Magazine|date=21 February 2013|publisher=ESPN|access-date=21 February 2013}}</ref> He claims to have developed a system that uses advanced statistical analysis to predict the outcomes of games. In the past, very few people did any mathematical calculations when handicapping sporting events. [[Predictions]] were usually made from hunches or information not readily available to the public. However, with the advancement of technology computers powerful enough to run advanced simulation models now frequent homes and offices. Advanced statistics such as DVOA, Win Shares and Points per Possession are talked about in mainstream media. Brian Burke, author of The Fifth Down blog featured in ''[[The New York Times]]'', wrote a formula using advanced statistical techniques that has shown consistency correctly predicting [[National Football League|NFL]] winners.<ref>{{cite web|last=Burke|first=Brian|title=Game Probabilities Are Back|url=http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/n-f-l-week-4-game-probabilities-are-back/|work=The New York Times|date=27 September 2012|access-date=27 September 2012}}</ref> Handicapping, as a profession, is very similar to being a [[stock analyst]]. Like [[Wall Street]] did in the 1970s, the sports handicapping industry is undergoing a quantitative revolution. Many successful handicappers also use money management systems similar to financial [[investment]] professionals. The most popular, and mathematically superior, system is the [[Kelly criterion]]. It is a formula for maximizing profits and minimizing losses based on payout odds and win probability of the underlying [[asset]]. The Kelly criterion is often used to determine [https://leans.ai/what-is-a-unit-in-sports-betting/ units in sports betting] which some handicappers assign to weight each prediction.