Editing Recession (section)

==History==

===Global===

{{main|Global recession}}
According to the [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years."<ref name="IMF2002 recession statement">[http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2002/040502.htm The Recession that Almost Was.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081212032611/http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2002/040502.htm |date=12 December 2008 }} Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002</ref> The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual [[real GDP]] growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".<ref name="economist-12381879">{{cite news |url=https://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12381879 |title=The world economy Bad, or worse |newspaper=The Economist |date=9 October 2008 |access-date=15 April 2009 |archive-date=21 February 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090221121619/http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12381879 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>Lall, Subir.  International Monetary Fund, 9 April 2008. [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES040908A.htm "IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090228204137/http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES040908A.htm |date=28 February 2009 }}</ref>

By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975,<ref name="IMF0901">[https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Global-Economic-Slump-Challenges-Policies Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200109000117/https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Global-Economic-Slump-Challenges-Policies |date=9 January 2020 }} IMF. January 2009.</ref> 1980–1983,<ref name="IMF0901"/> 1990–1993,<ref name="IMF0901"/><ref name="b1">{{cite news|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arlKrFbn3pfY&refer=home |title=Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. "Damage" Spreads. Jan 2008 |publisher=Bloomberg L.P. |date=28 January 2008 |access-date=15 April 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100321154128/http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 |archive-date=21 March 2010 }}</ref> 1998,<ref name="IMF0901"/><ref name="b1"/> 2001–2002,<ref name="IMF0901"/><ref name="b1"/> and 2008–2009.<ref name="IMF1301">{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/tables.pdf|title=World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output|publisher=IMF|date=16 April 2013|access-date=16 April 2013|archive-date=25 May 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130525084203/http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/tables.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a ''global recession''.<ref name="IMF2002 recession statement"/>

In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per{{nbhyph}}capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per{{nbhyph}}capita investment, and per{{nbhyph}}capita consumption."<ref name="New IMF Global Recession definition">{{cite news|url=https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/22/whats-a-global-recession/|title=What's a Global Recession?|newspaper=The Wall Street Journal|date=22 April 2009|access-date=17 September 2013|first=Bob|last=Davis|archive-date=28 February 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190228002745/https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/22/whats-a-global-recession/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="IMF WEO 2009">{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf|title=World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery|work=Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14)|publisher=IMF|date=24 April 2009|access-date=17 September 2013|archive-date=31 December 2010|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101231195910/http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since [[World War II]]: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per{{nbhyph}}capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per{{nbhyph}}capita real World GDP.<ref name="New IMF Global Recession definition"/><ref name="IMF WEO 2009"/>

===Australia===

As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent [[depression (economics)|depressions]], but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as [[foreign investments]]. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects.

The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of [[inflation]] in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently, the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.<ref>{{citation | title = Australian Economic Indicators | publisher = Australian Bureau of Statistics | date = 27 February 1998 | url = http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/90a12181d877a6a6ca2568b5007b861c/d4a22ad91e0348bfca256fd3007baf93!OpenDocument | access-date = 11 August 2015 | archive-date = 16 October 2015 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20151016030017/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/90a12181d877a6a6ca2568b5007b861c/d4a22ad91e0348bfca256fd3007baf93!OpenDocument | url-status = live }}</ref>

Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987,<ref>{{citation | title=Reasons for 1990s Recession | work=The Age | date=2 December 2006 | url=http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/the-real-reasons-why-it-was-the-1990s-recession-we-had-to-have/2006/12/01/1164777791623.html?page=3 | location=Melbourne | access-date=11 August 2015 | archive-date=12 April 2014 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140412054240/http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/the-real-reasons-why-it-was-the-1990s-recession-we-had-to-have/2006/12/01/1164777791623.html?page=3 | url-status=dead }}</ref> referred to now as [[Black Monday (1987)|Black Monday]]. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced.

Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy.<ref>{{citation | title = Australian Recession | publisher = Australian Broadcasting Corporation |first=Michael |last=Janda | date = 3 June 2020 | url = https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/australian-economy-gdp-recession-march-quarter-2020/12315140 | access-date = 3 June 2020 | archive-date = 3 June 2020 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20200603105733/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/australian-economy-gdp-recession-march-quarter-2020/12315140 | url-status = live }}</ref> This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020.

===European Union===

The [[Eurozone]] experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the [[French economy|French]], [[German economy|German]] and [[Italian economy|Italian]] economies all affected.<ref>{{cite web | title=Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012 | website=BBC News | date=2013-02-14 | url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21455423 }}</ref>

===United Kingdom===

{{Main|List of recessions in the United Kingdom}}
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession<ref>{{cite web |title=UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years |publisher=The BBC |date=12 August 2020 |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53748278 |access-date=23 May 2022 |archive-date=12 August 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200812062202/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53748278 | url-status=live }}</ref> attributed to the [[Coronavirus disease 2019|COVID-19]] global pandemic, the first recession since the [[Great Recession]].

===United States===

{{Main|List of recessions in the United States}}
[[File:Recessions in the United States — 1930 through 2021.png|thumb|Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021|350px]]
[[File:FFR treasuries.webp|thumb|350px|right|[[Inverted yield curve]]s correlation to recessions
{{legend-line|#F5A623 solid 3px|[[Mortgage loan|30 year mortgage average]]}}
{{legend-line|#F8E71C solid 3px|[[treasury bond|30 Year Treasury Bond]]}}
{{legend-line|#000000 solid 3px|10 Year Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#9013FE solid 3px|2 Year Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#4A90E2 solid 3px|3 month Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#D0021B solid 4px|Effective Federal Funds Rate}}
{{legend-line|#E786F9 solid 4px|[[United States Consumer Price Index|CPI inflation]] year/year}}
{{color box|lightgrey}} [[List of recessions in the United States|Recessions]]
]]
According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion.<ref name="nber.org" /> From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more,<ref name="autogenerated1">{{cite web|url=https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls|title=Percent change from preceding period|publisher=U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)|access-date=26 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180814045606/https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls|archive-date=14 August 2018|url-status=dead}}</ref> and four periods considered recessions:
* [[Early 1980s recession|July 1981 – November 1982]]: 15 months
* [[Early 1990s recession|July 1990 – March 1991]]: 8 months
* [[Early 2000s recession|March 2001 – November 2001]]: 8 months
* [[Great Recession|December 2007 – June 2009]]: 18 months<ref>{{cite news |last=Isidore |first=Chris |url=https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?postversion=2008120112 |title=It's official: Recession since Dec. '07 |publisher=CNN |date=1 December 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 August 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210814113557/https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?postversion=2008120112 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8332773.stm|title= US economy out of recession|date=29 October 2009|publisher=BBC News – Business|access-date=6 February 2010|archive-date=28 July 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728104138/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8332773.stm|url-status=live}}</ref>

For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.<ref name="autogenerated1" />

Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month [[COVID-19 recession]] for February 2020 – April 2020.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021|title=Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021|website=NBER|date=19 July 2021 |access-date=19 July 2021|archive-date=26 April 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220426170943/https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021|url-status=live}}</ref>

NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.<ref>{{cite news |title=What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics |first=Aaron |last=Blake |date=July 28, 2022 |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]}}</ref>

An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office;<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7215351.stm |title=Economy puts Republicans at risk |date=29 January 2008 |publisher=BBC |access-date=8 March 2008 |archive-date=2 February 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080202054357/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7215351.stm |url-status=live }}</ref> this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.<ref>[http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2003/fs_bushrecession073103.pdf The Bush Recession] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110204065202/http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2003/fs_bushrecession073103.pdf |date=4 February 2011 }} Prepared by: Democratic staff, [[Senate Budget Committee]], 31 July 2003</ref>

For example, the [[early 1980s recession|1981 recession]] is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by [[Paul Volcker]], chairman of the [[Federal Reserve Board of Governors|Federal Reserve Board]], before [[Ronald Reagan]] took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist [[Walter Heller]], chairman of the [[Council of Economic Advisers]] in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."<ref>{{Cite magazine |url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,922689-2,00.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080423212123/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,922689-2,00.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=23 April 2008 |title=Ready for a Real Downer |date=23 November 1981 |magazine=Time |first=George J.|last=Church}}</ref>

===Late 2000s===

{{Main|Great Recession}}
Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007,<ref name="nber">{{cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.pdf|title=Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity.|date=11 December 2008|publisher=NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee|access-date=26 April 2009|archive-date=19 April 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090419133834/http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009<ref>{{cite news | url=https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/20/nber-recession-ended-in-june-2009/ | work=The Wall Street Journal | first=Phil | last=Izzo | title=Recession Over in June 2009 | date=20 September 2010 | access-date=4 August 2017 | archive-date=7 December 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171207134037/https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/20/nber-recession-ended-in-june-2009/ | url-status=live }}</ref> as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The [[timeline of the Great Recession]] details the many elements of this period.

====United States====

The [[United States housing market correction]] (a consequence of the [[United States housing bubble]]) and [[subprime mortgage crisis]] significantly contributed to a recession.

The [[Great Recession in the United States|2007–2009 recession]] saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.<ref>[http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/ Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110514043916/http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/ |date=14 May 2011 }} Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009''</ref>

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008,<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07cnd-econ.html|title=Employment Falls for Second Month|date=7 March 2008|work=The New York Times|last=Andrews|first=Edmund L.|access-date=10 March 2020|archive-date=11 August 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190811210042/https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07cnd-econ.html|url-status=live}}</ref> the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession."<ref>[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3694545.ece?openComment=true Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110812063532/http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3694545.ece?openComment=true |date=12 August 2011 }}</ref> On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008, [[Moody's]] declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06jobs.html | work=The New York Times | title=U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974 | first1=Louis | last1=Uchitelle | author-link1=Louis Uchitelle | first2=Edmund L. | last2=Andrews | first3=Stephen | last3=Labaton | date=6 December 2008 | access-date=10 April 2010 | archive-date=9 April 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090409050009/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06jobs.html | url-status=live }}</ref> In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/worldbusiness/09iht-jobs.4.19232394.html|title=U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008|date=9 January 2009|work=The New York Times|last=Uchitelle|first=Louis|access-date=10 March 2020|archive-date=1 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200301012755/https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/worldbusiness/09iht-jobs.4.19232394.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

The [[unemployment rate]] in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009,<ref>[https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/apr/wk1/art01.htm Unemployment rate in March 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200806223944/https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/apr/wk1/art01.htm |date=6 August 2020 }} 6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.</ref> and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007.<ref>[https://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/news/economy/jobs_march/index.htm 2 million jobs lost so far in '09] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200111022432/https://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/news/economy/jobs_march/index.htm |date=11 January 2020 }} CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.</ref> That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |title=Employment Situation Summary |publisher=Bls.gov |date=2 July 2010 |access-date=31 July 2010 |archive-date=6 October 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091006024659/http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the 1940s.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm | publisher=CNN | access-date=10 April 2010 | title=Worst year for jobs since '45 | date=9 January 2009 | first=David | last=Goldman | archive-date=6 October 2013 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131006034714/http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm | url-status=live }}</ref>

Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%,<ref>{{cite web |first=Brent |last=Meyer |url=http://www.clevelandfed.org/research//trends/2008/0608/01ecoact.cfm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081005035837/http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2008/0608/01ecoact.cfm |url-status=dead |archive-date=5 October 2008 |title=Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |publisher=Clevelandfed.org |date=16 October 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080707072224/http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/economy.html?.v=14|url-status=dead|title=Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet|archive-date=7 July 2008|publisher=Yahoo! Finance}}</ref> by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession.<ref>[http://www.newsweek.com/id/140553 Why it's worse than you think] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091001045325/http://www.newsweek.com/id/140553 |date=1 October 2009 }}, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.</ref> The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of 0.5%,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm |title=Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008 |publisher=Bea.gov |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 August 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180814045711/https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.<ref>{{cite news |last=Chandra |first=Shobhana |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB3KBZXgh.Rk&refer=home |title=U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession |publisher=Bloomberg |date=30 October 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 }}</ref>

A November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2008/survq408.cfm?loc=interstitialskip |title=Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters |publisher=Philadelphiafed.org |date=17 November 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=3 July 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090703093801/http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2008/survq408.cfm?loc=interstitialskip |url-status=dead }}</ref> They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.

A December 2008 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm |title=Text of the NBER's statement on the recession |work=USA Today |date=1 December 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 November 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101114225424/http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> By July 2009, a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended.<ref>{{cite web | last=Gross | first=Daniel |authorlink=Daniel Gross (journalist) | title=Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over? | website=Newsweek | date=2009-07-13 | url=https://www.newsweek.com/daniel-gross-recession-over-82097 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1=Keilis-Borok | first1=V. I. | last2=Soloviev | first2=A. A. | last3=Intriligator | first3=M. D. | last4=Winberg | first4=F. E. | title=Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession | journal=Journal of Pattern Recognition Research | volume=3 | issue=1 | year=2008 | issn=1558-884X | doi=10.13176/11.106 | pages=40–53 |url=http://jprr.org/index.php/jprr/article/viewFile/106/23| url-access=subscription }}</ref> The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html|title=Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research|website=nber.org|date=20 September 2010 |access-date=26 November 2018|archive-date=2 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210302041430/http://www2.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.<ref name="Park Simar Zelenyuk 2019 pp. 379–392" />