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Standard deviation
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===Application examples=== The practical value of understanding the standard deviation of a set of values is in appreciating how much variation there is from the average (mean). ====Experiment, industrial and hypothesis testing==== Standard deviation is often used to compare real-world data against a model to test the model. For example, in industrial applications the weight of products coming off a production line may need to comply with a legally required value. By weighing some fraction of the products an average weight can be found, which will always be slightly different from the long-term average. By using standard deviations, a minimum and maximum value can be calculated that the averaged weight will be within some very high percentage of the time (99.9% or more). If it falls outside the range then the production process may need to be corrected. Statistical tests such as these are particularly important when the testing is relatively expensive. For example, if the product needs to be opened and drained and weighed, or if the product was otherwise used up by the test. In experimental science, a theoretical model of reality is used. [[Particle physics]] conventionally uses a standard of "'''5 sigma'''" for the declaration of a discovery. A five-sigma level translates to one chance in 3.5 million that a random fluctuation would yield the result. This level of certainty was required in order to assert that a particle consistent with the [[Higgs boson]] had been discovered in two independent experiments at [[CERN]],<ref>{{cite web |url=http://press-archive.web.cern.ch/press-archive/PressReleases/Releases2012/PR17.12E.html |title=CERN experiments observe particle consistent with long-sought Higgs boson | CERN press office |publisher=Press.web.cern.ch |date=4 July 2012 |access-date=30 May 2015 |archive-date=25 March 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160325050100/http://press-archive.web.cern.ch/press-archive/PressReleases/Releases2012/PR17.12E.html |url-status=dead }}</ref> also leading to the declaration of the [[first observation of gravitational waves]].<ref>{{Citation|vauthors=((LIGO Scientific Collaboration)), ((Virgo Collaboration))|title=Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger|journal=Physical Review Letters|volume=116|issue=6|year=2016|pages=061102|doi=10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.061102|arxiv=1602.03837|pmid=26918975|bibcode=2016PhRvL.116f1102A|s2cid=124959784}}</ref> ====Weather==== As a simple example, consider the average daily maximum temperatures for two cities, one inland and one on the coast. It is helpful to understand that the range of daily maximum temperatures for cities near the coast is smaller than for cities inland. Thus, while these two cities may each have the same average maximum temperature, the standard deviation of the daily maximum temperature for the coastal city will be less than that of the inland city as, on any particular day, the actual maximum temperature is more likely to be farther from the average maximum temperature for the inland city than for the coastal one. ====Finance==== In finance, standard deviation is often used as a measure of the [[Risk#Finance|risk]] associated with price-fluctuations of a given asset (stocks, bonds, property, etc.), or the risk of a portfolio of assets<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.edupristine.com/blog/what-is-standard-deviation |title=What is Standard Deviation |publisher=Pristine |access-date=29 October 2011}}</ref> (actively managed mutual funds, index mutual funds, or ETFs). Risk is an important factor in determining how to efficiently manage a portfolio of investments because it determines the variation in returns on the asset or portfolio and gives investors a mathematical basis for investment decisions (known as [[Modern portfolio theory|mean-variance optimization]]). The fundamental concept of risk is that as it increases, the expected return on an investment should increase as well, an increase known as the risk premium. In other words, investors should expect a higher return on an investment when that investment carries a higher level of risk or uncertainty. When evaluating investments, investors should estimate both the expected return and the uncertainty of future returns. Standard deviation provides a quantified estimate of the uncertainty of future returns. For example, assume an investor had to choose between two stocks. Stock A over the past 20 years had an average return of 10 percent, with a standard deviation of 20 [[percentage point]]s (pp) and Stock B, over the same period, had average returns of 12 percent but a higher standard deviation of 30 pp. On the basis of risk and return, an investor may decide that Stock A is the safer choice, because Stock B's additional two percentage points of return is not worth the additional 10 pp standard deviation (greater risk or uncertainty of the expected return). Stock B is likely to fall short of the initial investment (but also to exceed the initial investment) more often than Stock A under the same circumstances, and is estimated to return only two percent more on average. In this example, Stock A is expected to earn about 10 percent, plus or minus 20 pp (a range of 30 percent to β10 percent), about two-thirds of the future year returns. When considering more extreme possible returns or outcomes in future, an investor should expect results of as much as 10 percent plus or minus 60 pp, or a range from 70 percent to β50 percent, which includes outcomes for three standard deviations from the average return (about 99.7 percent of probable returns). Calculating the average (or arithmetic mean) of the return of a security over a given period will generate the expected return of the asset. For each period, subtracting the expected return from the actual return results in the difference from the mean. Squaring the difference in each period and taking the average gives the overall variance of the return of the asset. The larger the variance, the greater risk the security carries. Finding the square root of this variance will give the standard deviation of the investment tool in question. Financial time series are known to be non-stationary series, whereas the statistical calculations above, such as standard deviation, apply only to stationary series. To apply the above statistical tools to non-stationary series, the series first must be transformed to a stationary series, enabling use of statistical tools that now have a valid basis from which to work.
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