Editing Delphi method (section)

===Delphi vs. prediction markets===
Delphi has characteristics similar to [[prediction markets]] as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.<ref name = "Green_2008" />

Some advantages of [[prediction markets]] derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation.
# They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs.
# They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast.
# Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast.

Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets:
# Participants reveal their reasoning
# It is easier to maintain confidentiality
# Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.
# Delphi is applicable in situations where the bets involved might affect the value of the currency used in bets (e.g. a bet on the collapse of the dollar made in dollars might have distorted odds).

More recent research has also focused on combining both, the Delphi technique and prediction markets. More specifically, in a research study at [[Deutsche Börse]] elements of the Delphi method had been integrated into a prediction market.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Prokesch T, von der Gracht H, Wohlenberg H |year = 2015 | title = Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system — Insights from an online game | journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change | volume = 97 | pages = 47–64 | doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021}}</ref>