Editing Yield curve (section)

==Notes==
1. {{note|1}} The New York Federal Reserve recession prediction model uses the month average 10 year yield vs the month average 3 month bond equivalent yield to compute the term spread. Therefore, intra-day and daily inversions do not count as inversions unless they lead to an inversion on a monthly average basis. In December 2018, portions of the yield curve inverted for the first time since the [[Great Recession|2008–2009 recession]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Collins |first1=Jim |title=The Yield Curve Just Inverted--Sort Of--And That Is A Sell Signal For Stocks |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/12/04/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-sort-of-and-that-is-a-sell-signal-for-stocks/#5d3dd3a3eaae |website=Forbes |language=en}}</ref> However the 10-year vs 3-month portion did not invert until March 22, 2019 and it reverted to a positive slope by April 1, 2019 (i.e. only 8 days later).<ref>{{cite web |title=Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates |url=https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield |website=US Treasury}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Barrett |first1=Emily |last2=Greifeld |first2=Katherine |title=Treasuries Buying Wave Triggers First Curve Inversion Since 2007 |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007 |newspaper=Bloomberg.com |date=22 March 2019 |access-date=22 March 2019}}</ref> The month average of the 10-year vs 3-month (bond equivalent yield) difference reached zero basis points in May 2019. Both March and April 2019 had month-average spreads greater than zero basis points despite intra-day and daily inversions in March and April. Therefore, the table shows the 2019 inversion beginning from May 2019. Likewise, daily inversions in September 1998 did not result in negative term spreads on a month average basis and thus do not constitute a false alarm.

2. {{note|2}} The recession prediction model stipulated that the recession began in February 2020, one month before the [[World Health Organization]] declared [[COVID-19]] a pandemic.