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Radiative forcing
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=== Total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing summary === {| class="wikitable" style="float:right style="font-size:95%" |+ TSI forcing (est. 10-yr change) |- ! ! Ξ''Ο'' ! Radiative forcing change Ξ''F'' (W m<sup>β2</sup>) |- ! Annual cycle | align=center | Β±0.034 <ref name="apperi"/> | align=center | 0 (net) |- ! Sunspot activity | align=center | Β±5{{e|-4}} <ref name="lean"/> | align=center | Β±0.1 <ref name="jones"/><ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/ |title=There Is No Impending 'Mini Ice Age' |publisher=NASA Global Climate Change |date=2020-02-13 |access-date=2021-05-28 |archive-date=2021-05-28 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210528020538/https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |- ! Orbital shift | align=center | {{val|-4|e=-7}} <ref name="loutre"/> | align=center | {{val|-1|e=-4}} |- ! Sun aging | align=center | +1{{e|-9}} <ref name="sunage"/> | align=center | +2{{e|-7}} |} The maximum fractional variations (ΞΟ) in Earth's solar irradiance during the last decade are summarized in the accompanying table. Each variation previously discussed contributes a forcing of: : <math>\Delta F = ~I_0 \times (1-R) \times \Delta \tau ~~ = ~ 238 \times \Delta \tau ~~(\mathrm{W}~\mathrm{m}^{-2}) \, </math>, where R=0.30 is Earth's reflectivity. The radiative and climate forcings arising from changes in the Sun's insolation are expected to continue to be minor, notwithstanding some as-of-yet undiscovered [[solar physics]].<ref name="jones"/><ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/ |title=What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? |publisher=NASA |date=2019-09-06 |access-date=2021-05-24 |archive-date=2021-05-26 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210526005417/https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
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