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Bernoulli trial
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==Examples== ===Tossing coins=== Consider the simple experiment where a fair coin is tossed four times. Find the probability that exactly two of the tosses result in heads. ====Solution==== [[File:Coin flip outcomes.png|thumb|A representation of the possible outcomes of flipping a fair coin four times in terms of the number of heads. As can be seen, the probability of getting exactly two heads in four flips is 6/16 = 3/8, which matches the calculations.]] For this experiment, let a heads be defined as a ''success'' and a tails as a ''failure.'' Because the coin is assumed to be fair, the probability of success is <math>p = \tfrac{1}{2}</math>. Thus, the probability of failure, <math>q</math>, is given by :<math>q = 1 - p = 1 - \tfrac{1}{2} = \tfrac{1}{2}</math>. Using the equation above, the probability of exactly two tosses out of four total tosses resulting in a heads is given by: :<math>\begin{align} P(2) &= {4 \choose 2} p^{2} q^{4-2} \\ &= 6 \times \left(\tfrac{1}{2}\right)^2 \times \left(\tfrac{1}{2}\right)^2 \\ &= \dfrac {3}{8}. \end{align}</math> ===Rolling dice=== What is probability that when three independent fair six-sided dice are rolled, exactly two yield sixes? ====Solution==== [[File:binomial_trial_dice.svg|lang=egl|thumb|Probabilities of rolling ''k'' sixes from ''n'' independent fair dice, with crossed out dice denoting non-six rolls – 2 sixes out of 3 dice is circled]] On one die, the probability of rolling a six, <math>p = \tfrac{1}{6}</math>. Thus, the probability of not rolling a six, <math>q = 1 - p = \tfrac{5}{6}</math>. As above, the probability of exactly two sixes out of three, :<math>\begin{align} P(2) &= {3 \choose 2} p^{2} q^{3-2} \\ &= 3 \times \left(\tfrac{1}{6}\right)^2 \times \left(\tfrac{5}{6}\right)^1 \\ &= \dfrac {5}{72} \approx 0.069. \end{align}</math>
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