Editing Division of Barker (section)

==History==
[[File:Captain Sturt Monument, Hindmarsh Island.jpg|thumb|left|A memorial to [[Collet Barker]], the division's namesake]]
Barker is the only one of South Australia's remaining original single member seven divisions, created in 1903, that has never been held by the [[Australian Labor Party]] and is traditionally the safest seat for the [[Liberal Party of Australia]] in the state. It has been in the hands of the Liberals and its predecessors for its entire existence, except for a six-year period when [[National Party of Australia|Country Party]] MP [[Archie Cameron]] held it; however, Cameron joined the [[United Australia Party]], direct forerunner of the Liberals, in 1940.  The conservative parties have usually had a secure hold on the seat.  This tradition has only been threatened three times. Labor came within 1.2 percent of winning the seat at the [[1929 Australian federal election|1929 election]], and within 1.7 percent of winning the seat at the [[1943 Australian federal election|1943 election]].  In the latter election, Barker was left as the only non-Labor seat in South Australia, and indeed the only Coalition seat outside the eastern states. It would be seven decades before the conservatives' hold on Barker would be seriously threatened again.

Though it has always covered the state's entire south-east, Barker was historically a hybrid urban-rural seat that extended for some distance into the [[Adelaide]] area.  Until 1949, only three seats--[[Division of Adelaide|Adelaide]], [[Division of Boothby|Boothby]] and [[Division of Hindmarsh|Hindmarsh]] were based primarily on the capital. For most of the first half-century after Federation, Barker included [[Glenelg, South Australia|Glenelg]] and the [[Holdfast Bay]] area, and at times stretched as far as the inner metropolitan suburbs of [[Keswick, South Australia|Keswick]] and [[Henley Beach, South Australia|Henley Beach]].

However, it became an entirely rural seat after parliament was expanded in the redistribution prior to the [[1949 Australian federal election|1949 election]] when the new [[Division of Kingston]] was created based around Glenelg and the southern suburbs of Adelaide. <ref>{{Cite news |date=1949-11-21 |title=Federal election guide |url=https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/130768572 |access-date=2024-12-11 |work=News}}</ref> This made an already safely conservative seat even more so. Barker had always included [[Kangaroo Island]] and the connecting [[Fleurieu Peninsula]] until parliament was expanded in the redistribution prior to the [[1984 Australian federal election|1984 election]]. Exchanged between Barker and [[Division of Mayo|Mayo]] since, Kangaroo Island and the Fleurieu Peninsula have been in Mayo since the redistribution prior to the [[2004 Australian federal election|2004 election]], where the massive redistribution of [[Division of Wakefield|Wakefield]], resulting from the abolition of [[Division of Bonython|Bonython]], saw Barker absorb the [[Riverland]] from Wakefield. 

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the [[Australian Electoral Commission]]. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Muller |first1=Damon |title=The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide |url=https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/FederalRedistributions |website=Parliament of Australia |access-date=19 April 2022 |date=14 November 2017}}</ref>

The seat's most prominent members have been Cameron, a former leader of the Country Party and later [[Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives|Speaker of the House]] in the [[Menzies government (1949–1966)|Menzies government]], [[Jim Forbes (Australian politician)|Jim Forbes]], a minister in the Menzies, [[Holt government|Holt]], [[John Gorton|Gorton]] and [[William McMahon|McMahon]] governments, and [[Ian McLachlan]], [[Minister for Defence (Australia)|Minister for Defence]] from 1996 to 1998 in the [[Howard government]].

===2016 election===
South Australian Senator [[Nick Xenophon]] confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 the [[Nick Xenophon Team]] (NXT) would announce candidates in all states and territories at the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]], with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on the [[Collins-class submarine replacement project]] as motivation.<ref>{{cite news|last=Bourke|first=Latika|author-link=Latika Bourke|title=Subs backlash: Nick Xenophon sets sights on Liberal-held seats in Adelaide|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/subs-backlash-nick-xenophon-sets-sights-on-liberalheld-seats-in-adelaide-20150405-1mez7u.html|access-date=2015-12-29|newspaper=The Sydney Morning Herald|publisher=Fairfax Media|date=2015-04-06|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150902201151/http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/subs-backlash-nick-xenophon-sets-sights-on-liberalheld-seats-in-adelaide-20150405-1mez7u.html|archive-date=2 September 2015}}</ref> [[Australian Broadcasting Corporation|ABC]] [[psephologist]] [[Antony Green]]'s 2016 federal election guide for South Australia stated NXT had a "strong chance of winning lower house seats and three or four Senate seats".<ref>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/preview-sa/ Election Guide (SA) - 2016 federal election guide: Antony Green ABC]</ref>

A [[Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016#South Australia|ReachTEL seat-level opinion poll in the safe Liberal seat of Barker]] of 869 voters conducted by [[robocall]] on 20 June during the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]] campaign surprisingly found NXT candidate James Stacey leading the Liberals' [[Tony Pasin]] 52–48 on the [[two-candidate preferred]] vote. [[Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016#South Australia|Seat-level opinion polls in the other two rural Liberal South Australian seats]] revealed NXT also leading in both [[Division of Grey|Grey]] and [[Division of Mayo|Mayo]].<ref>[http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-could-lose-another-seat-to-independent-nick-xenophons-team/news-story/ce11710e8478383621a00218b1a91202 Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016]</ref>

Election-night counting showed that Stacey was second to Pasin on first preferences, however the indicative two-candidate preferred count had been done between Pasin and Labor candidate Mat O'Brien, which meant there was no early indication of whether Stacey would receive enough preferences to beat Pasin before postal, absentee and provisional votes were counted and preferences distributed in the following two weeks.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/results-in-close-sa-seats-will-take-time-aec-says/7568978 |title=Election 2016: Results in close South Australian seats will take time, AEC says |date=5 July 2016 |access-date=5 July 2016 |publisher=[[Australian Broadcasting Corporation]]}}</ref> Ultimately, it was confirmed that Stacey had not only overtaken O'Brien on first preferences, but reduced Pasin's margin in Barker to 4.7 percent—thus making Barker a marginal seat for the first time since Cameron's near-defeat in the 1943 landslide.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-180.htm |title=Barker, SA - AEC Tally Room |access-date=2016-08-02 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160805050414/http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-180.htm |archive-date=2016-08-05 }}</ref>  However, Barker remains a comfortably safe Liberal seat in a "traditional" two-party matchup with Labor; Pasin only suffered a one-percent swing against Labor.