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Economic forecasting
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===Global scope=== The [[Economic Outlook (OECD publication)|Economic Outlook]] is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.<ref>{{Cite web | url=http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/forecastingmethodsandanalyticaltools.htm | title=Forecasting methods and analytical tools - OECD}}</ref> The [[IMF]] publishes the [[World Economic Outlook]] report twice annually, which provides comprehensive global coverage.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Uneven-Growth-Short-and-Long-Term-Factors|title=IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors|website=IMF}}</ref> The IMF and [[World Bank]] also produces Regional Economic Outlook for various parts of the world.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Regional Economic Outlook|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO|access-date=2020-11-22|website=IMF|language=en}}</ref> There are also private companies such as [[The Conference Board]] and [[Lombard Street Research]] that provide global economic forecasts.<ref>{{Cite web|title=TS Lombard|url=https://www.tslombard.com/|access-date=2020-11-22|website=Economics Politics Markets|language=en}}</ref> As of April 2024, the [[World Trade Organization]] (WTO) projects a rebound in global merchandise trade, forecasting a growth of 2.6% for the year, and an anticipated increase to 3.3% in 2025, following a 1.2% decline in 2023. During 2023, there was a significant reduction in merchandise exports, which fell by 5% to US$ 24.01 trillion, contrasting sharply with the commercial services sector, which saw a 9% increase in exports to US$ 7.54 trillion. The global GDP is expected to stabilize, maintaining a growth rate of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. From a regional perspective, [[Africa]] is forecasted to experience the highest export growth at 5.3% in 2024, closely followed by the [[Commonwealth of Independent States|CIS region]] at nearly the same rate. Moderate growth is expected in [[North America]], the [[Middle East]], and [[Asia]], with rates projected at 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.4%, respectively, while European exports are anticipated to grow by only 1.7%. Import growth will likely be robust in Asia (5.6%) and Africa (4.4%), with Europe showing almost no growth at 0.1%. Digital services trade remains resilient, reaching US$ 4.25 trillion in exports in 2023, and accounting for 13.8% of global exports of goods and services, with significant growth observed in Africa (13%) and South and Central America and the [[Caribbean]] (11%). Additionally, the WTO has launched the [https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/services_trade_data_hub_e.htm Global Services Trade Data Hub] to provide detailed insights into the evolving landscape of services trade, with a particular focus on digitalization.<ref>{{Cite web |title=WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but warns of downside risks |url=https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news24_e/tfore_10apr24_e.htm |access-date=2024-04-12 |website=www.wto.org |language=en}}</ref><ref>World Trade Organization. (2024). ''Global Trade Outlook and Statistics April 2024''. <nowiki>ISBN 978-92-870-7633-5</nowiki>. Retrieved April 12, 2024, from <nowiki>https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook24_e.pdf</nowiki></ref>
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