Editing Fault tree analysis (section)

==History==
{{Globalize|section|date=May 2022}}
Fault tree analysis (FTA) was originally developed in 1962 at [[Bell Labs|Bell Laboratories]] by H.A. Watson, under a [[United States Air Force|U.S. Air Force]] [[526th ICBM Systems Group|Ballistics Systems Division]] contract to evaluate the [[LGM-30 Minuteman|Minuteman I]] [[Intercontinental Ballistic Missile]] (ICBM) Launch Control System.<ref>{{Cite journal
 |last=Ericson 
 |first=Clifton 
 |title=Fault Tree Analysis - A History 
 |journal=Proceedings of the 17th International Systems Safety Conference 
 |year=1999 
 |url=http://www.fault-tree.net/papers/ericson-fta-history.pdf 
 |access-date=2010-01-17 
 |url-status=dead 
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110723124816/http://www.fault-tree.net/papers/ericson-fta-history.pdf 
 |archive-date=2011-07-23 
}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal
  | last = Rechard
  | first = Robert P.
  | title = Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States
  | format = pdf
  | journal = Risk Analysis
  | volume = 19
  | issue = 5
  | pages = 763–807
  | year = 1999
  | url = http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/759847-JsFRIG/webviewable/
  | doi = 10.1023/A:1007058325258
  | pmid = 10765434
 | s2cid = 704496
 | id = SAND99-1147J
  | access-date = 2010-01-22
| url-access = subscription
  }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal
  | last = Winter
  | first = Mathias
  | title = Software Fault Tree Analysis of an Automated Control System Device Written in ADA
  | format = pdf
  | journal = Master's Thesis
  | year = 1995
  | url = http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA303377
  | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120515221443/http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA303377
  | url-status = dead
  | archive-date = May 15, 2012
  | id = ADA303377
  | access-date = 2010-01-17
}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal
  | last = Benner
  | first = Ludwig
  | title = Accident Theory and Accident Investigation
  | journal = Proceedings of the Society of Air Safety Investigators Annual Seminar
  | year = 1975
  | url = https://www.iprr.org/papers/75iasiatheory.html
  | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20010306205651/http://www.iprr.org/Papers/75iasiatheory.html
  | url-status = usurped
  | archive-date = March 6, 2001
  | access-date = 2010-01-17
}}</ref> The use of fault trees has since gained widespread support and is often used as a failure analysis tool by reliability experts.<ref>{{cite journal|author1=Martensen, Anna L. |author2=Butler, Ricky W. |title=The Fault-Tree Compiler|url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870011332|journal=Langely Research Center|date=January 1987 |publisher=NTRS|access-date=June 17, 2011}}</ref> Following the first published use of FTA in the 1962 Minuteman I Launch Control Safety Study, [[Boeing]] and [[Avco|AVCO]] expanded use of FTA to the entire Minuteman II system in 1963–1964. FTA received extensive coverage at a 1965 [[System Safety]] Symposium in [[Seattle]] sponsored by Boeing and the [[University of Washington]].<ref>{{Cite journal
  | last = DeLong
  | first = Thomas
  | title = A Fault Tree Manual
  | journal = Master's Thesis
  | format = pdf
  | year = 1970
  | url = http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0739001
  | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160304031008/http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0739001
  | url-status = dead
  | archive-date = March 4, 2016
  | id = AD739001
  | access-date = 2014-05-18
}}</ref> Boeing began using FTA for [[civil aviation|civil aircraft]] design around 1966.<ref>{{Cite book
  | last = Eckberg
  | first = C. R.
  | title = WS-133B Fault Tree Analysis Program Plan
  | issue = Rev B
  | publisher = The Boeing Company
  | location = Seattle, WA
  | year = 1964
  | url = http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0299561
  | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160303225811/http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0299561
  | url-status = dead
  | archive-date = March 3, 2016
  | id = D2-30207-1
  | access-date = 2014-05-18
}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book
  | last = Hixenbaugh
  | first = A. F. 
  | title = Fault Tree for Safety
  | publisher = The Boeing Company
  | location = Seattle, WA
  | year = 1968
  | url = http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0847015
  | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160303224602/http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0847015
  | url-status = dead
  | archive-date = March 3, 2016
  | id = D6-53604   
  | access-date = 2014-05-18
}}</ref>

Subsequently, within the U.S. military, application of FTA for use with fuses was explored by [[Picatinny Arsenal]] in the 1960s and 1970s.<ref>{{cite book|last=Larsen|first=Waldemar|title=Fault Tree Analysis|date=January 1974|publisher=Picatinny Arsenal|url=http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0774843|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140518022301/http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=AD0774843|url-status=dead|archive-date=May 18, 2014|access-date=2014-05-17|id=Technical Report 4556}}</ref> In 1976 the [[United States Army Materiel Command|U.S. Army Materiel Command]] incorporated FTA into an Engineering Design Handbook on Design for Reliability.<ref>{{cite book|last=Evans|first=Ralph A.|title=Engineering Design Handbook Design for Reliability|date=January 5, 1976|publisher=US Army Materiel Command| url=http://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a027370.pdf| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140518022549/http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a027370.pdf| url-status=live| archive-date=May 18, 2014|access-date=2014-05-17|id=AMCP-706-196}}</ref> The Reliability Analysis Center at [[Rome Laboratory]] and its successor organizations now with the [[Defense Technical Information Center]] (Reliability Information Analysis Center, and now Defense Systems Information Analysis Center<ref>{{Cite web |title=DSIAC – Defense Systems Information Analysis Center |url=https://dsiac.org/ |access-date=2023-03-25 |language=en-US}}</ref>) has published documents on FTA and reliability block diagrams since the 1960s.<ref>{{Cite book
  | last1 = Begley
  | first1 = T. F.
  | last2 = Cummings
| title = Fault Tree for Safety
  | publisher = RAC
  | year = 1968
  | id = ADD874448   <!-- | access-date = 2010-01-17 -->
}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last=Anderson|first=R. T.|title=Reliability Design Handbook|date=March 1976|publisher=Reliability Analysis Center|url=https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA024601.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140518020425/http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA024601|url-status=live|archive-date=May 18, 2014|access-date=2014-05-17|id=RDH 376}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last=Mahar|first=David J.|title=Fault Tree Analysis Application Guide|date=1990|publisher=Reliability Analysis Center|author2=James W. Wilbur }}</ref> MIL-HDBK-338B provides a more recent reference.<ref>{{cite book 
 |       title = Electronic Reliability Design Handbook
 |     section = 7.9 Fault Tree Analysis
 |     version = B
 |   publisher = [[United States Department of Defense|U.S. Department of Defense]]
 |        year = 1998
 |         url = http://www.everyspec.com/MIL-HDBK/MIL-HDBK-0300-0499/MIL-HDBK-338B_15041/
 |      format = pdf
 |          id = MIL&ndash;HDBK&ndash;338B
 |  access-date = 2010-01-17
 }}
</ref>

In 1970, the [[FAA|U.S. Federal Aviation Administration]] (FAA) published a change to 14 [[Code of Federal Regulations|CFR]] 25.1309 [[airworthiness]] regulations for [[transport category]] [[aircraft]] in the [[Federal Register]] at 35 FR 5665 (1970-04-08). This change adopted failure probability criteria for [[aircraft systems]] and equipment and led to widespread use of FTA in civil aviation. In 1998, the FAA published Order 8040.4,<ref>{{cite book|last=ASY-300|title=Safety Risk Management|date=June 26, 1998|publisher=Federal Aviation Administration|url=http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/directives/ND/ND8040-4.pdf|id=8040.4}}</ref> establishing risk management policy including hazard analysis in a range of critical activities beyond aircraft certification, including [[air traffic control]] and modernization of the U.S. [[National Airspace System]]. This led to the publication of the FAA System Safety Handbook, which describes the use of FTA in various types of formal hazard analysis.<ref>{{cite book|last=FAA|title=System Safety Handbook|date=December 30, 2000|publisher=Federal Aviation Administration|url=http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/risk_management/ss_handbook/}}</ref>

Early in the [[Apollo project|Apollo program]] the question was asked about the probability of successfully sending astronauts to the moon and returning them safely to Earth. A risk, or reliability, calculation of some sort was performed and the result was a mission success probability that was unacceptably low. This result discouraged NASA from further quantitative risk or reliability analysis until after the ''Challenger'' accident in 1986. Instead, NASA decided to rely on the use of [[Failure mode and effects analysis|failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)]] and other qualitative methods for system safety assessments. After the ''Challenger'' accident, the importance of [[probabilistic risk assessment]] (PRA) and FTA in systems risk and reliability analysis was realized and its use at NASA has begun to grow and now FTA is considered as one of the most important system reliability and safety analysis techniques.<ref name=fthbaa>{{cite book 
 |        last = Vesely
 |       first = William
 |       title = Fault Tree Handbook with Aerospace Applications
 |   publisher = [[NASA|National Aeronautics and Space Administration]]
 |        year = 2002
 |         url = https://elibrary.gsfc.nasa.gov/_assets/doclibBidder/tech_docs/25.%20NASA_Fault_Tree_Handbook_with_Aerospace_Applications%20-%20Copy.pdf
 |         archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20161228133244/https://elibrary.gsfc.nasa.gov/_assets/doclibBidder/tech_docs/25.%20NASA_Fault_Tree_Handbook_with_Aerospace_Applications%20-%20Copy.pdf
 |         url-status = dead
 |         archive-date = 2016-12-28
 |  access-date = 2018-07-16
 |display-authors=etal}} {{PD-notice}}</ref>

Within the nuclear power industry, the [[Nuclear Regulatory Commission|U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission]] began using PRA methods including FTA in 1975, and significantly expanded PRA research following the 1979 incident at [[Three Mile Island accident|Three Mile Island]].<ref>{{Cite book
  | last = Acharya
  | first = Sarbes
  | title = Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants
  | publisher = U.S. [[Nuclear Regulatory Commission]]
  | location = Wasthington, DC
  | year = 1990
  | url = https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1150/v1/sr1150v1-intro-and-part-1.pdf
  | id = NUREG&ndash;1150
  | access-date = 2010-01-17
|display-authors=etal}}</ref> This eventually led to the 1981 publication of the NRC Fault Tree Handbook NUREG&ndash;0492,<ref>{{cite book 
 |        last = Vesely
 |       first = W. E.
 |       title = Fault Tree Handbook
 |   publisher = [[Nuclear Regulatory Commission]]
 |        year = 1981
 |         url = https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr0492/sr0492.pdf
 |          id = NUREG&ndash;0492
 |  access-date = 2010-01-17
 |display-authors=etal}}
</ref> and mandatory use of PRA under the NRC's regulatory authority.

Following process industry disasters such as the 1984 [[Bhopal disaster]] and 1988 [[Piper Alpha]] explosion, in 1992 the [[United States Department of Labor]] [[Occupational Safety and Health Administration]] (OSHA) published in the Federal Register at 57 FR 6356 (1992-02-24) its [[Process Safety Management]] (PSM) standard in 19 CFR 1910.119.<ref>{{Citation
 | last = Elke
 | first = Holly C.
 | title = Global Application of the Process Safety Management Standard
  | url = http://www.asse.org/assets/1/7/Holly_Elke_Article.pdf
}}</ref> OSHA PSM recognizes FTA as an acceptable method for [[process hazard analysis]] (PHA).

Today FTA is widely used in [[system safety]] and [[reliability engineering]], and in all major fields of engineering.