Editing IPCC Third Assessment Report (section)

==Conclusions==
===Working Group I===

The key conclusions of '''Working Group I'''<ref> [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm The Scientific Basis, Summary for Policymakers] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160307220102/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm |date=2016-03-07 }}, in {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG1|2001}}</ref> were:

#An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system (The global [[Instrumental temperature record|average surface temperature]] has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6&nbsp;°C; Temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere; Snow cover and ice extent have decreased)
#Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate (Anthropogenic [[aerosol]]s (i.e., human emitted aerosols) are short-lived and mostly produce negative radiative forcing; Natural factors have made small contributions to [[radiative forcing]] over the past century)
#Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased (Complex physically based climate models are required to provide detailed estimates of feedbacks and of regional features. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e.g., they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/007.htm] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070601014140/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/007.htm |date=2007-06-01 }}.)
#There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
#Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century
#Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|SRES scenarios]].

The TAR estimate for the [[climate sensitivity]] is 1.5 to 4.5&nbsp;°C; and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.1 to 0.9 metres over the same period.  The wide range in projections is based upon several different scenarios that assume different levels of future CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (see the section below on [[#Projections in the TAR|Projections in the TAR]]).

===Synthesis Report===

The TAR Synthesis Report includes a summary of the TAR's main findings and uncertainties.<ref name="tar robust findings and key uncertainties">
{{citation
 | at=[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/015.htm Question 9]
 | title=Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report
 | chapter=Summary for Policymakers
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR SYR|2001}}
</ref>  "Robust findings" of the TAR include:<ref name="tar robust findings and key uncertainties"/>
*Observed warming of the Earth's surface, attribution of observed warming to human activities, [[Global climate model#Projections of future climate change|projected increases]] in future global mean temperature, rising [[current sea level rise|sea level]]s, and increased frequency of [[heat wave]]s.
*Future warming will have both beneficial and adverse effects, but for higher levels of warming, adverse effects will predominate.
*Developing countries and poor persons are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]].
"Key uncertainties" in the TAR include:<ref name="tar robust findings and key uncertainties"/>
*Estimated climate [[radiative forcing|forcings]] of natural climatic factors and anthropogenic [[aerosol]]s (e.g., sulfate, which is produced when sulfur-rich coal is burnt), future changes in [[greenhouse gas emissions|greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions]], and the role of [[climate change feedback|climate feedback]]s, which may amplify or reduce the magnitude of future climate change;
*Assigning probabilities to projections of changes in sea level and temperature, as well as uncertainties related to regional projections of climate change.