Editing Swing state (section)

== Competitive states ==
States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. For example, the states in the [[1984 United States presidential election|1984 election]] with the tightest results were [[Minnesota]] and [[Massachusetts]]. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]], as [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] nominee [[Walter Mondale]] required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, and Republican [[Ronald Reagan]] still would have won by a [[Landslide victory|large margin]].<ref name="azswing">{{cite news|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/27/arizona-is-probably-not-a-swing-state/|title=Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State|last=Silver|first=Nate|author-link=Nate Silver|date=April 27, 2012|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|access-date=June 6, 2013}}</ref> Instead, the [[tipping-point state]] that year was [[Michigan]], as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan's national margin of eighteen percent.<ref name="azswing" /> Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer.

Similarly, [[Barack Obama]]'s narrow victory in [[Indiana]] in the [[2008 United States presidential election in Indiana|2008 election]] inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer [[2012 United States presidential election in Indiana|2012 election]], but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; the same scenario was with [[Missouri]], where [[John McCain]] narrowly won by 4,000 votes in the [[2008 United States presidential election in Missouri|2008 election]], but was won by [[Mitt Romney]] by nearly 10 points in [[2012 United States presidential election in Missouri|2012 election]], indicating its GOP trend. Other lightly Republican leaning states such as [[North Carolina]] and [[Arizona]] were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012.<ref name="silverchange">{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/|title=As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage|last=Silver|first=Nate|author-link=Nate Silver|date=November 8, 2012|access-date=June 6, 2013}}</ref> 

In 2012, the states of North Carolina, Florida, [[Ohio]], and [[Virginia]] were decided by a margin of less than five percent. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them. Virginia was most in-step with the rest of the country. Virginians voted for Obama by just under 4 points, almost the exact same as the nation.<ref name="silverchange" /> Had the election come out closer, Romney's path to victory would probably have involved also winning [[Wisconsin]], [[United States presidential election in Nevada, 2012|Nevada]], [[United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2012|New Hampshire]], or [[United States presidential election in Iowa, 2012|Iowa]], as these states had comparable margins to Colorado, and had been battlegrounds during the election.

As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160921014945/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 21, 2016|title=2016 Senate Forecast|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=September 20, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=November 6, 2016}}</ref> For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-flip-flop/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP|website=centerforpolitics.org|date=September 2016 |language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/|title=The Electoral College Blind Spot|date=January 23, 2017|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping-point state.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-north-carolina-is-becoming-a-backstop-for-clinton/|title=Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump|date=October 5, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]] and popular vote.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball|website=centerforpolitics.org|date=November 17, 2016 |language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/|title=The Real Story Of 2016|date=January 19, 2017|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> 

Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the [[2000 United States presidential election|2000 election]].<ref name="FiveThirtyEight">{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/|title=The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing|date=November 1, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> In that election, Vice President [[Al Gore]] won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president [[George W. Bush]] won the Electoral College by only 5 votes.<ref name="FiveThirtyEight" /> In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee [[Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016|Hillary Clinton]] won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/9/13572112/trump-popular-vote-loss|title=Trump will be the 4th president to win the Electoral College after getting fewer votes than his opponent|last=Chang|first=Alvin|newspaper=[[Vox (website)|Vox]]|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/21/election-results-electoral-popular-votes-trump-clinton/94214826/|title=Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million|newspaper=[[USA Today]]|language=en|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up [[United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2016|New Hampshire]], [[Nevada]], and [[United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2016|Minnesota]] if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/|title=Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else|date=November 11, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/|title=Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win|date=September 22, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to win the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]], as Trump, the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] nominee, won the tipping-point state of [[United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016|Wisconsin]] by less than 1 percent.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/|title=The End Of A Republican Party|last=Malone|first=Clare|date=July 18, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> 

In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 4 percentage points but won the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by only 1 percent. This shows Donald Trump could win the election even if he lost the popular vote by over 3 percent and would have picked up Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin with a uniform shift among the states.

In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by a narrow margin of 1.5%, while winning the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by a similarly narrow margin of 1.7% percent. This is evidence of an erosion of the popular vote advantage that Democratic candidates have typically enjoyed in recent elections, likely spurred by a significant narrowing of margins in safe blue states such as New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, which each saw dramatic shifts toward the Republican candidate, as well as dramatic increases in the Republican support in moderately red states such as Florida and Texas compared to previous cycles. 

Swing states have generally changed over time. For instance, the swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Connecticut]], [[Indiana]], [[New Jersey]] and New York were key to the outcome of the [[1888 United States presidential election|1888 election]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=HarpWeek {{!}} Elections {{!}} 1888 Overview |url=https://elections.harpweek.com/1888/Overview-1888-4.asp |access-date=2023-12-20 |website=elections.harpweek.com |page=4}}</ref> Likewise, [[Illinois]]<ref>"[https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/21/national/21daley.html Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses]", [[David Rosenbaum (journalist)|David Rosenbaum]], ''[[New York Times]]'', April 21, 2005.</ref> and [[Texas]] were key to the outcome of the [[1960 United States presidential election|1960 election]], Florida and [[New Hampshire]] were key in deciding the [[2000 United States presidential election|2000 election]], and Ohio was important during the [[2004 United States presidential election|2004 election]]. Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/02/arts/02camp.html Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes], Julie Salamon, "[[The New York Times]]", October 2, 2004</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Ellenberg |first=Jordan |date=2004-10-25 |title=Game Theory for Swingers |language=en-US |work=Slate |url=https://slate.com/human-interest/2004/10/bush-and-kerry-do-swing-state-math.html |access-date=2023-12-20 |issn=1091-2339}}</ref> and did not vote against the winner between 1960 and 2020.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html|title=Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|date=November 3, 2020}}</ref> In the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 election]], Ohio and Florida had shifted rightward and were considered safe wins for Republicans.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-10-14 |title=Why Ohio is not considered a swing state in this year's presidential election |url=https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/why-ohio-is-not-considered-a-swing-state-in-this-years-presidential-election |access-date=2024-11-06 |website=News 5 Cleveland WEWS |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Anderson |first=Zac |title=How America's largest swing state lost its swing and went from purple to red |url=https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/07/florida-no-longer-swing-maga-stronghold/75465191007/ |access-date=2024-11-06 |website=Tallahassee Democrat |language=en-US}}</ref> 

In fact, only three people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900: [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]], [[John F. Kennedy]], and [[Joe Biden]]. Areas considered battlegrounds in the [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 election]] were Arizona, Florida, Georgia,<ref name="georgiaswing">{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/08/georgia-swing-state-democrats/?arc404=true|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|title=How Georgia became a swing state for the first time in decades|access-date=7 Jan 2021|date=8 Nov 2020}}</ref> Iowa, [[Maine's 2nd congressional district]], Michigan, [[Minnesota]], [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district]], Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, [[Texas]] and Wisconsin,<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/361607-how-dem-insiders-rank-the-2020-contenders/|title=How Dem insiders rank the 2020 contenders|last=Weaver|first=Dustin|date=November 24, 2017|work=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|access-date=January 13, 2018}}</ref> with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Five" most likely to decide the Electoral College.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-2020-electoral-map-could-be-the-smallest-in-years-heres-why/2019/08/31/61d4bc9a-c9a9-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html|title=The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here's why.|last=Balz|first=Dan|date=August 31, 2019|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|access-date=January 5, 2019}}</ref> In the end, Joe Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while [[Donald Trump]] won ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Campaign strategies are not universal in swing states. Statistical analytics website [[FiveThirtyEight]] notes that some swing states, such as [[New Hampshire]], swing because they have many moderate, independent swing voters, and campaigning puts an emphasis on persuading voters. Contrasting this is [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], which is a swing state because it has large populations of Republican-leaning evangelical whites and Democratic-leaning Black voters and urban college-educated professionals, thus campaigns often concentrate on voter turnout.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=2022-07-22 |title=New Hampshire Is Tiny And Pretty Weird. That Could Help Maggie Hassan. |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-hampshire-is-tiny-and-pretty-weird-that-could-help-maggie-hassan/ |access-date=2022-07-31 |website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US}}</ref>