Editing Weather forecasting (section)

===Ancient forecasting===
In 650&nbsp;BC, the [[Babylonia]]ns predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as [[astrology]]. In about 350&nbsp;BC, [[Aristotle]] described weather patterns in ''[[Meteorology (Aristotle)|Meteorologica]]''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|title=94.05.01: Meteorology|website=teachersinstitute.yale.edu|access-date=January 14, 2020|archive-date=January 27, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200127092756/http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Later, [[Theophrastus]] compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the ''Book of Signs''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/weather-forecasting-from-the-beginning|title=Weather: Forecasting from the Beginning|website=InfoPlease|access-date=January 14, 2020|archive-date=January 31, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131030233/http://www.infoplease.com/cig/weather/forecasting-from-beginning.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300&nbsp;BC,<ref>[[University of California]] Museum of Paleontology. [http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html "Aristotle (384-322&nbsp;B.C.E.)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161120124920/http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html |date=November 20, 2016 }}". Retrieved January 12, 2008.</ref> which was also around the same time ancient [[Indian astronomy|Indian astronomers]] developed weather-prediction methods.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Indian and Pseudo-indian Passages in Greek and Latin Astronomical and Astrological Texts|author=David Pingree|pages=141–195 [143–4]|url=http://brepols.metapress.com/content/6861608670636388/fulltext.pdf|access-date=March 1, 2010|date=December 14, 2017|author-link=David Pingree}}{{dead link|date=January 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> In the [[New Testament]], Jesus is quoted as referring to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|title=Bible Gateway passage: Matthew 16:2–3 – English Standard Version|website=Bible Gateway|access-date=December 1, 2016|archive-date=December 1, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161201143801/https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|url-status=live}}</ref>

In 904&nbsp;AD, [[Ibn Wahshiyya]]'s ''[[Nabatean Agriculture]]'', translated into Arabic from an earlier [[Aramaic]] work,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Carrara|first1=A.A|title=Geoponica and Nabatean Agriculture: A New Approach into Their Sources and Authorship|journal=Arabic Sciences and Philosophy|volume=16|issue=1|pages=123–130|doi=10.1017/s0957423906000245|year=2006|s2cid=170931904}}</ref> discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the [[lunar phase]]s; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Fahd|first=Toufic|page=842|title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science}}, in {{Cite book |last1=Rashed |first1=Roshdi |last2=Morelon |first2=Régis |year=1996 |title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science |volume=3 |publisher=[[Routledge]] |isbn=978-0-415-12410-2 |pages=813–852|title-link=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science }}</ref>

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it was observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over the generations to produce [[weather lore]]. However, not all{{which|date=April 2015}} of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing.<ref name=Skywatch>{{cite web |author=Jerry Wilson |url=http://wilstar.com/skywatch.htm#indicators |title=Skywatch: Signs of the Weather |access-date=May 25, 2008 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130106041039/http://wilstar.com/skywatch.htm#indicators |archive-date=January 6, 2013 }}</ref>