Editing Demographic transition (section)

==Second demographic transition==
The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a conceptual framework first formulated in 1986 by Ron Lesthaeghe and [[Dick van de Kaa|Dirk van de Kaa]].<ref name="Lesthaeghe_2011">{{citation |author=Ron J. Lesthaeghe |date=2011 |title=The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation |journal=Historical Social Research |volume=36 |number=2 |pages=179–218 |url=http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-342259}}</ref>{{rp|181}}<ref name="Lesthaeghe_2011"/><ref name="Bevolking">{{cite book|author1=Ron Lesthaeghe |author2=Dirk van de Kaa|author-link2=Dick van de Kaa|title=Bevolking: groei en krimp [Population: growth and shrinkage]|date=1986|publisher=Deventer : Van Loghum Slaterus|isbn=9789036800181|pages=9–24|chapter=Twee demografische transities? [Second Demographic Transition]}}(in Dutch with summaries in English)</ref><ref name="Lesthaeghe_1991">{{citation |author=Ron J. Lesthaeghe |date=1991 |title=The Second Demographic Transition in Western countries: An interpretation |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257928736 |format=PDF |series=IPD Working Paper, Interuniversity Programme in Demography |access-date=February 26, 2017}}</ref> SDT addressed the changes in the patterns of sexual and reproductive behavior which occurred in North America and Western Europe in the period from about 1963, when the [[combined oral contraceptive pill|birth control pill]] and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD were adopted by the general population, to the present. Combined with the [[sexual revolution]] and the increased role of women in society and the workforce the resulting changes have profoundly affected the demographics of industrialized countries resulting in a [[sub-replacement fertility]] level.<ref name="Kaa012902">{{cite journal|author1=Dirk J. van de Kaa|title=The Idea of a Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries|date=29 January 2002|url=http://websv.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2003_4/Kaa.pdf|access-date=May 6, 2016|archive-date=29 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201029113743/http://websv.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2003_4/Kaa.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref>

The changes, including increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by single mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional careers, and other changes are associated with increased individualism and autonomy, particularly of women. Motivations have changed from traditional and economic ones to those of self-realization.<ref name="PNAC122314">{{cite journal|author1=Ron Lesthaeghe|title=The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|date=December 23, 2014 |volume=111|issue=51|pages=18112–18115|doi=10.1073/pnas.1420441111|pmid=25453112|pmc=4280616|bibcode=2014PNAS..11118112L|doi-access=free}}</ref>

In 2015, Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the [[American Enterprise Institute]] in Washington, described the Second Demographic Transition as one in which "long, stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in, along with serial cohabitation and increasingly contingent liaisons."<ref name="WSJ_Eberstadt_2015">{{citation |quote='They're getting divorced, and they'll do anything NOT to get custody of the kids." So reads the promotional poster, in French, for a new movie, "Papa ou Maman"|title=The Global Flight From the Family: It's not only in the West or prosperous nations—the decline in marriage and drop in birth rates is rampant, with potentially dire fallout |author=Nicholas Eberstadt |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/nicholas-eberstadt-the-global-flight-from-the-family-1424476179|date=February 21, 2015 |access-date=February 26, 2017 |publisher=Wall Street Journal }}</ref>[[S. Philip Morgan]] thought future development orientation for SDT is Social demographers should explore a theory that is not based on stages, a theory that does not set a single line, a development path for some final stage—in the case of SDT, a hypothesis that looks like the advanced Western countries that most embrace postmodern values.

However, the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory has not proposed a single line or teleological evolution based on phases, as was the case for the theories of the First Demographic Transition (FDT). Instead, and this is strikingly in evidence in Lesthaeghe's empirical studies, major attention is being paid to historical path dependency, heterogeneity in the SDT patterns of development, forms of family and lineage organisation, economic and especially ideational developments.<ref>Johan Surkyn and Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004: Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe- An Update. Demographic Research, Special collection, 3: 45-86. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010: The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition. Population and Development Review, 36 (2), 211-251</ref>

For instance, the European pattern of almost simultaneous manifestation of all SDT demographic characteristics is not being replicated elsewhere. The Latin American countries experienced a major growth in pre-marital cohabitation in which the upper social classes were catching up with pre-existing higher levels among the less educated and some ethnic groups.<ref>Albert Esteve and Ron Lesthaeghe (eds), 2016. Cohabitation and Marriage in the Americas - Geo-historical Legacies and New Trends. Springer Open, Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland, 291p.</ref> But so far, the other major SDT indicator, namely fertility postponement is largely absent.

The opposite holds for Asian patriarchal societies which have traditionally strong rules of arranged endogamous marriage and male dominance. In industrialised East Asian societies a major postponement of union formation and parenthood took place, leading to an expansion of numbers of singles and to very low levels of sub-replacement fertility. In such historically patriarchal societies, free partner choice is to be avoided, and hence there is a strong stigma against pre-marital cohabitation. However, after the turn of the century it was noted that cohabitation did develop in Japan, China, Taiwan and the Philippines.<ref>James Raymo, M. Iwasawa and Larry Bumpass, 2009: Cohabitation and Familily Formation in Japan, Demography 46 (4), 758-803. Jia Yu and Yu Xie, 2015:Cohabitation in China: Trends and Determinants. Population and Development Review, 41 (4), 607-628.</ref> The proportions are still moderate, and pregnancies in cohabiting unions are typically followed by shot-gun marriages or abortions. Parenthood among cohabitants is still very rare.<ref>Ron Lesthaeghe, 2020a: The Second Demographic Transition: Cohabitation, Kim Halford and Fons van de Vijver (eds): Cross-Cultural Family Research and Practice. Academic Press/ Elsevier, 103-144.</ref> Finally, Hindu and Muslim countries can reach replacement level fertility, but no significant fertility postponement or take off of pre-marital cohabitation have occurred. Hence they are completing the FDT and are not in any type of initiation phase of the SDT.

Sub-Saharan African populations exhibit yet another ''[[sui generis]]'' pattern. These societies have exogamous union formation and weaker marriage institutions. Under these conditions cohabitation seems to grow both among poorer and wealthier population segments alike. Among the former cohabitation reflects the "Pattern of Disadvantage" and among the latter cohabitation is a means of avoiding inflated bride price. However, Sub-Saharan African populations have not yet completed the FDT fertility transition, and several West-African ones have barely started it. Hence, there is a striking disconnection between evolutions of fertility and of partnership formation.

The conclusion is that the unfolding of the SDT is characterised by just as much pattern heterogeneity as was the by now historical FDT.<ref>Ron Lesthaeghe, 2020b: The Second Demographic Transition 1986-2020, Sub-Replacement Fertility and Rising Cohabitation - A Global Update. Genus 76(1)</ref>