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Forecasting
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===Training and test sets=== When evaluating the quality of forecasts, it is invalid to look at how well a model fits the historical data; the accuracy of forecasts can only be determined by considering how well a model performs on new data that were not used when fitting the model. When choosing models, it is common to use a portion of the available data for fitting, and use the rest of the data for testing the model, as was done in the above examples.<ref name=e2.5>{{Cite web |url=https://www.otexts.org/fpp/2/5|title=2.5 Evaluating forecast accuracy |website=OTexts |access-date=2016-05-14}}</ref>
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