Editing Recession (section)

===Late 2000s===

{{Main|Great Recession}}
Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007,<ref name="nber">{{cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.pdf|title=Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity.|date=11 December 2008|publisher=NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee|access-date=26 April 2009|archive-date=19 April 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090419133834/http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009<ref>{{cite news | url=https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/20/nber-recession-ended-in-june-2009/ | work=The Wall Street Journal | first=Phil | last=Izzo | title=Recession Over in June 2009 | date=20 September 2010 | access-date=4 August 2017 | archive-date=7 December 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171207134037/https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/20/nber-recession-ended-in-june-2009/ | url-status=live }}</ref> as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The [[timeline of the Great Recession]] details the many elements of this period.

====United States====

The [[United States housing market correction]] (a consequence of the [[United States housing bubble]]) and [[subprime mortgage crisis]] significantly contributed to a recession.

The [[Great Recession in the United States|2007–2009 recession]] saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.<ref>[http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/ Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110514043916/http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/ |date=14 May 2011 }} Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009''</ref>

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008,<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07cnd-econ.html|title=Employment Falls for Second Month|date=7 March 2008|work=The New York Times|last=Andrews|first=Edmund L.|access-date=10 March 2020|archive-date=11 August 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190811210042/https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07cnd-econ.html|url-status=live}}</ref> the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession."<ref>[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3694545.ece?openComment=true Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110812063532/http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3694545.ece?openComment=true |date=12 August 2011 }}</ref> On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008, [[Moody's]] declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06jobs.html | work=The New York Times | title=U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974 | first1=Louis | last1=Uchitelle | author-link1=Louis Uchitelle | first2=Edmund L. | last2=Andrews | first3=Stephen | last3=Labaton | date=6 December 2008 | access-date=10 April 2010 | archive-date=9 April 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090409050009/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06jobs.html | url-status=live }}</ref> In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/worldbusiness/09iht-jobs.4.19232394.html|title=U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008|date=9 January 2009|work=The New York Times|last=Uchitelle|first=Louis|access-date=10 March 2020|archive-date=1 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200301012755/https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/worldbusiness/09iht-jobs.4.19232394.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

The [[unemployment rate]] in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009,<ref>[https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/apr/wk1/art01.htm Unemployment rate in March 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200806223944/https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/apr/wk1/art01.htm |date=6 August 2020 }} 6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.</ref> and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007.<ref>[https://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/news/economy/jobs_march/index.htm 2 million jobs lost so far in '09] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200111022432/https://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/news/economy/jobs_march/index.htm |date=11 January 2020 }} CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.</ref> That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |title=Employment Situation Summary |publisher=Bls.gov |date=2 July 2010 |access-date=31 July 2010 |archive-date=6 October 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091006024659/http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the 1940s.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm | publisher=CNN | access-date=10 April 2010 | title=Worst year for jobs since '45 | date=9 January 2009 | first=David | last=Goldman | archive-date=6 October 2013 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131006034714/http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm | url-status=live }}</ref>

Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%,<ref>{{cite web |first=Brent |last=Meyer |url=http://www.clevelandfed.org/research//trends/2008/0608/01ecoact.cfm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081005035837/http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2008/0608/01ecoact.cfm |url-status=dead |archive-date=5 October 2008 |title=Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |publisher=Clevelandfed.org |date=16 October 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080707072224/http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/economy.html?.v=14|url-status=dead|title=Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet|archive-date=7 July 2008|publisher=Yahoo! Finance}}</ref> by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession.<ref>[http://www.newsweek.com/id/140553 Why it's worse than you think] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091001045325/http://www.newsweek.com/id/140553 |date=1 October 2009 }}, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.</ref> The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of 0.5%,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm |title=Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008 |publisher=Bea.gov |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 August 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180814045711/https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.<ref>{{cite news |last=Chandra |first=Shobhana |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB3KBZXgh.Rk&refer=home |title=U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession |publisher=Bloomberg |date=30 October 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 }}</ref>

A November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2008/survq408.cfm?loc=interstitialskip |title=Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters |publisher=Philadelphiafed.org |date=17 November 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=3 July 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090703093801/http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2008/survq408.cfm?loc=interstitialskip |url-status=dead }}</ref> They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.

A December 2008 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm |title=Text of the NBER's statement on the recession |work=USA Today |date=1 December 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 November 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101114225424/http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> By July 2009, a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended.<ref>{{cite web | last=Gross | first=Daniel |authorlink=Daniel Gross (journalist) | title=Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over? | website=Newsweek | date=2009-07-13 | url=https://www.newsweek.com/daniel-gross-recession-over-82097 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1=Keilis-Borok | first1=V. I. | last2=Soloviev | first2=A. A. | last3=Intriligator | first3=M. D. | last4=Winberg | first4=F. E. | title=Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession | journal=Journal of Pattern Recognition Research | volume=3 | issue=1 | year=2008 | issn=1558-884X | doi=10.13176/11.106 | pages=40–53 |url=http://jprr.org/index.php/jprr/article/viewFile/106/23| url-access=subscription }}</ref> The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html|title=Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research|website=nber.org|date=20 September 2010 |access-date=26 November 2018|archive-date=2 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210302041430/http://www2.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.<ref name="Park Simar Zelenyuk 2019 pp. 379–392" />