Editing Energy development (section)

== History ==
[[File:Doel Kerncentrale.JPG|thumb|Energy generators past and present at [[Doel]], Belgium: 17th-century windmill ''Scheldemolen'' and 20th-century [[Doel Nuclear Power Station]]]]

Since prehistory, when humanity discovered fire to warm up and roast food, through the Middle Ages in which populations built windmills to grind the wheat, until the modern era in which nations can get electricity splitting the atom. Man has sought endlessly for energy sources.

Except nuclear, geothermal and [[tidal power|tidal]], all other energy sources are from current solar isolation or from fossil remains of plant and animal life that relied upon sunlight. Ultimately, [[solar power|solar energy]] itself is the result of the [[Sun]]'s nuclear fusion. [[Geothermal power]] from hot, hardened [[Rock (geology)|rock]] above the [[magma]] of the Earth's core is the result of the decay of radioactive materials present beneath the Earth's crust, and [[nuclear fission]] relies on man-made fission of heavy radioactive elements in the Earth's crust; in both cases these elements were produced in [[supernova]] explosions before the formation of the [[Solar System]].

Since the beginning of the [[Industrial Revolution]], the question of the future of energy supplies has been of interest. In 1865, [[William Stanley Jevons]] published ''The Coal Question'' in which he saw that the reserves of coal were being depleted and that oil was an ineffective replacement. In 1914, [[United States Bureau of Mines|U.S. Bureau of Mines]] stated that the total production was {{convert|5.7|Goilbbl|m3}}. In 1956, Geophysicist [[M. King Hubbert]] deduces that U.S. oil production would [[Hubbert peak theory|peak]] between 1965 and 1970 and that oil production will peak "within half a century" on the basis of 1956 data. In 1989, predicted peak by [[Colin Campbell (geologist)|Colin Campbell]]<ref>"Oil Price Leap in the Early Nineties," Noroil, December 1989, pages 35–38.</ref> In 2004, OPEC estimated, with substantial investments, it would nearly double oil output by 2025<ref>Opec Oil Outlook to 2025 Table 4, Page 12</ref>

=== Sustainability ===

[[File:Energy-consumption-World2.png|thumb|upright=1.8|Energy consumption from 1989 to 1999]]

{{main|Sustainable energy}}

The [[environmental movement]] has emphasized [[sustainability]] of energy use and development.<ref>Sustainable Development and Innovation in the Energy Sector. Ulrich Steger, Wouter Achterberg, Kornelis Blok, Henning Bode, Walter Frenz, Corinna Gather, Gerd Hanekamp, Dieter Imboden, Matthias Jahnke, Michael Kost, Rudi Kurz, Hans G. Nutzinger, Thomas Ziesemer. Springer, December 5, 2005.</ref> [[Renewable energy]] is sustainable in its production; the available supply will not be diminished for the foreseeable future - millions or billions of years.  "Sustainability" also refers to the ability of the environment to cope with waste products, especially [[air pollution]].  Sources which have no direct waste products (such as wind, solar, and hydropower) are brought up on this point. With global demand for energy growing, the need to adopt various energy sources is growing. [[Energy conservation]] is an alternative or complementary process to energy development.  It reduces the demand for energy by using it efficiently.

=== Resilience ===

Some observers contend that idea of "[[energy independence]]" is an unrealistic and opaque concept.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdf  |title=Energy independence and security: A reality check|website=deloitte.com|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130405230251/http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdf  |archive-date=April 5, 2013 |url-status=dead}}</ref> The alternative offer of "energy resilience" is a goal aligned with economic, security, and energy realities. The notion of resilience in energy was detailed in the 1982 book ''[[Brittle Power]]: Energy Strategy for National Security''.<ref>[http://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/brittlepower.htm Brittle Power: Energy Plan for National Security] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090702233352/http://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/brittlepower.htm |date=2009-07-02 }}. [[Amory B. Lovins]] and L. Hunter Lovins (1982).</ref> The authors argued that simply switching to domestic energy would not be secure inherently because the true weakness is the often interdependent and vulnerable energy infrastructure of a country. Key aspects such as gas lines and the electrical power grid are often centralized and easily susceptible to disruption. They conclude that a "resilient energy supply" is necessary for both national security and the environment. They recommend a focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy that is decentralized.<ref>[http://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/FragileDomEnergy_AtlanticMonthly_Nov1983.pdf "The Fragility of Domestic Energy."] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090106001526/http://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/FragileDomEnergy_AtlanticMonthly_Nov1983.pdf |date=2009-01-06 }} [[Amory B. Lovins]] and L. Hunter Lovins. ''Atlantic Monthly''. November 1983.</ref>

In 2008, former [[Intel Corporation]] Chairman and CEO [[Andrew Grove]] looked to energy resilience, arguing that complete independence is unfeasible given the global market for energy.<ref>[http://www.american.com/archive/2008/july-august-magazine-contents/our-electric-future "Our Electric Future."] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140825064622/http://www.american.com/archive/2008/july-august-magazine-contents/our-electric-future/ |date=2014-08-25 }} [[Andrew Grove]]. ''The American''. July/August 2008.</ref> He describes energy resilience as the ability to adjust to interruptions in the supply of energy. To that end, he suggests the U.S. make greater use of electricity.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.american.com/archive/2008/july-august-magazine-contents/our-electric-future|title=An Electric Plan for Energy Resilience|author=[[Andrew Grove]] and Robert Burgelman|publisher=McKinsey Quarterly|date=December 2008|access-date=2010-07-20|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140825064622/http://www.american.com/archive/2008/july-august-magazine-contents/our-electric-future/|archive-date=2014-08-25}}</ref> Electricity can be produced from a variety of sources. A diverse energy supply will be less affected by the disruption in supply of any one source. He reasons that another feature of [[electrification]] is that electricity is "sticky" – meaning the electricity produced in the U.S. is to stay there because it cannot be transported overseas.  According to Grove, a key aspect of advancing electrification and energy resilience will be converting the U.S. automotive fleet from gasoline-powered to electric-powered. This, in turn, will require the modernization and expansion of the electrical power grid. As organizations such as [[The Reform Institute]] have pointed out, advancements associated with the developing [[smart grid]] would facilitate the ability of the grid to absorb vehicles ''en masse'' connecting to it to charge their batteries.<ref>[https://www.policyarchive.org/bitstream/handle/10207/16484/Electric_Car_Reform_Brief_FINAL_PDF_3-4-09.pdf?sequence=1 Resilience in Energy: Building Infrastructure Today for Tomorrow's Automotive Fuel. Reform Institute. March 2009.]{{dead link|date=December 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref>

=== {{anchor|Future}} Present and future ===

[[File:World energy consumption outlook.png|thumb|upright=1.8|Outlook—World Energy Consumption by Fuel (as of 2011)<ref>World energy consumption outlook from the International Energy Outlook, published by the U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration</ref><br />
{{legend2|#2589ba}} [[Liquid fuel]]s incl. [[Biofuel]]s
{{legend2|#b57537}} [[Coal]]
{{legend2|#5f943a}} [[Natural Gas]]<br />
{{legend2|#8d3742}} [[Renewable fuel]]s
{{legend2|#87732c}} [[Nuclear fuel]]s
]]

[[File:World energy consumption by region 1970-2025.png|thumb|400px|right|Increasing share of energy consumption by developing nations<ref>Source: [[Energy Information Administration]] – [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html International Energy Outlook 2004] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170727110053/https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf |date=2017-07-27 }}</ref><br />
{{legend2|#4747bf}} [[Industrialized nation]]s<br />
{{legend2|#0e7a0d}} [[Developing nation]]s<br />
{{legend2|#730774}} [[European Economic Community|EE]]/[[Former Soviet Union]]
]]

Extrapolations from current knowledge to the future offer a choice of energy futures.<ref>[http://sapiens.revues.org/index70.html Mandil, C. (2008) "Our energy for the future". ''S.A.P.I.EN.S.'' '''1''' (1) ] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090428015629/http://sapiens.revues.org/index70.html |date=2009-04-28 }}</ref> Predictions parallel the [[Malthusian catastrophe]] hypothesis. Numerous are complex [[scientific modeling|models]] based [[scenario]]s as pioneered by ''[[Limits to Growth]]''. Modeling approaches offer ways to analyze diverse [[strategy|strategies]], and hopefully find a road to rapid and [[sustainable development]] of humanity. Short term [[energy crisis|energy crises]] are also a concern of energy development. Extrapolations lack plausibility, particularly when they predict a continual increase in oil consumption.{{citation needed|date=August 2013}}

Energy production usually requires an energy investment. Drilling for oil or building a wind power plant requires energy. The fossil fuel resources that are left are often increasingly difficult to extract and convert. They may thus require increasingly higher energy investments. If investment is greater than the value of the energy produced by the resource, it is no longer an effective energy source.  These resources are no longer an energy source but may be exploited for value as raw materials.  New technology may lower the energy investment required to extract and convert the resources, although ultimately basic physics sets limits that cannot be exceeded.

Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] transformed [[agriculture]] around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by [[fossil fuels]] in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html|title=Eating Fossil Fuels|work=Resilience|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070611071544/http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html|archive-date=2007-06-11}}</ref> The peaking of world hydrocarbon production ([[peak oil]]) may lead to significant changes, and require sustainable methods of production.<ref>[http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil Peak Oil: the threat to our food security] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090714220834/http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil |date=July 14, 2009 }} retrieved 28 May 2009</ref> One vision of a sustainable energy future involves all human structures on the earth's surface (i.e., buildings, vehicles and roads) doing [[artificial photosynthesis]] (using sunlight to split water as a source of hydrogen and absorbing carbon dioxide to make fertilizer) efficiently than plants.<ref>Faunce TA, Lubitz W, Rutherford AW, MacFarlane D, Moore, GF, Yang P, Nocera DG, Moore TA, Gregory DH, Fukuzumi S, Yoon KB, Armstrong FA, Wasielewski MR, Styring S. ‘Energy and Environment Case for a Global Project on Artificial Photosynthesis.’ Energy and Environmental Science 2013, 6 (3), 695 - 698 {{doi|10.1039/C3EE00063J}} {{cite journal |title=Energy and environment policy case for a global project on artificial photosynthesis |journal=Energy & Environmental Science |volume=6 |issue=3 |pages=695–698 |doi=10.1039/C3EE00063J |date=2013-02-20 |last1=Styring |first1=Stenbjorn |last2=Wasielewski |first2=Michael R. |last3=Armstrong |first3=Fraser A. |last4=Yoon |first4=Kyung Byung |last5=Fukuzumi |first5=Shunichi |last6=Gregory |first6=Duncan H. |last7=Moore |first7=Tom A. |last8=Nocera |first8=Daniel G. |last9=Yang |first9=Peidong |last10=Moore |first10=Gary F. |last11=MacFarlane |first11=Douglas |last12=Rutherford |first12=A. W. (Bill) |last13=Lubitz |first13=Wolfgang |author-link13=Wolfgang Lubitz |last14=Faunce |first14=Thomas A. |bibcode=2013EnEnS...6..695F }} (accessed 13 March 2013)</ref>

With contemporary [[space industry]]'s economic activity<ref name="Bromberg2000-1">{{cite book|author=Joan Lisa Bromberg|title=NASA and the Space Industry|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-UebVg1YqsoC&pg=PA1|access-date=10 June 2011|date=October 2000|publisher=JHU Press|isbn=978-0-8018-6532-9|page=1}}</ref><ref name="Schrogl2010">{{cite book|author=Kai-Uwe Schrogl|title=Yearbook on Space Policy 2008/2009: Setting New Trends|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=gcZwzmPnqxkC&pg=PA49|access-date=10 June 2011|date=2 August 2010|publisher=Springer|isbn=978-3-7091-0317-3|page=49}}</ref> and the related [[private spaceflight]], with the [[manufacturing industries]], that go into Earth's orbit or beyond, delivering them to those regions will require further energy development.<ref>Propulsion Techniques: Action and Reaction edited by Peter J. Turchi. [https://books.google.com/books?id=-o9TJa2F4qsC&pg=PA341 p341]</ref><ref>Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions. Edited by A. Pittock</ref> Researchers have contemplated [[space-based solar power]] for collecting solar power for use on Earth. Space-based solar power has been in research since the early 1970s. Space-based solar power would require construction of collector structures in space. The advantage over ground-based solar power is higher intensity of light, and no weather to interrupt power collection.