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Monte Carlo method
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===Finance and business=== {{See also|Monte Carlo methods in finance| Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in finance| Monte Carlo methods for option pricing| Stochastic modelling (insurance) | Stochastic asset model}} Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to evaluate the risk and uncertainty that would affect the outcome of different decision options. Monte Carlo simulation allows the business risk analyst to incorporate the total effects of uncertainty in variables like sales volume, commodity and labor prices, interest and exchange rates, as well as the effect of distinct risk events like the cancellation of a contract or the change of a tax law. [[Monte Carlo methods in finance]] are often used to [[Corporate finance#Quantifying uncertainty|evaluate investments in projects]] at a business unit or corporate level, or other financial valuations. They can be used to model [[project management|project schedules]], where simulations aggregate estimates for worst-case, best-case, and most likely durations for each task to determine outcomes for the overall project.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Project Risk Simulation (BETA) |url=https://risk.octigo.pl/ |access-date=2024-05-21 |website=risk.octigo.pl}}</ref> Monte Carlo methods are also used in option pricing, default risk analysis.<ref>{{cite book|chapter=An Introduction to Particle Methods with Financial Applications |publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg |title=Numerical Methods in Finance |date=2012 |isbn=978-3-642-25745-2 |pages=3–49 |series=Springer Proceedings in Mathematics |volume=12 |author-first1=René |author-last1=Carmona |author-first2=Pierre |author-last2=Del Moral |author-first3=Peng |author-last3=Hu |author-first4=Nadia |author-last4=Oudjane |editor-first1=René A. |editor-last1=Carmona |editor-first2= Pierre Del |editor-last2=Moral |editor-first3=Peng |editor-last3=Hu |editor-first4=Nadia |display-editors=3 |editor-last4=Oudjane |doi=10.1007/978-3-642-25746-9_1 |citeseerx=10.1.1.359.7957}}</ref><ref name="kr11">{{cite book|author-last1=Kroese |author-first1=D. P. |author-last2=Taimre |author-first2=T. |author-last3=Botev |author-first3=Z. I. |title=Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods |year=2011 |publisher=John Wiley & Sons}}</ref> Additionally, they can be used to estimate the financial impact of medical interventions.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0189718 |pmid=29284026 |pmc=5746244 |title=A Monte Carlo simulation approach for estimating the health and economic impact of interventions provided at a student-run clinic |journal=[[PLOS ONE]] |volume=12 |issue=12 |pages=e0189718 |year=2017 |author-last1=Arenas |author-first1=Daniel J. |author-last2=Lett |author-first2=Lanair A. |author-last3=Klusaritz |author-first3=Heather |author-last4=Teitelman |author-first4=Anne M. |bibcode=2017PLoSO..1289718A |doi-access=free}}</ref>
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