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Technological singularity
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=== Citations === {{Reflist |refs = <ref name="ulam1958">{{cite journal|url=https://www.ams.org/journals/bull/1958-64-03/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5.pdf|last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw|title=Tribute to John von Neumann|journal=[[Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society]]|volume=64, #3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5|access-date=2018-11-07|archive-date=2021-02-15|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095053/https://www.ams.org/journals/bull/1958-64-03/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> <ref name="good1965">{{Citation |first=I. J. |last=Good |year=1965 |title = Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine |url = http://www.aeiveos.com/~bradbury/Authors/Computing/Good-IJ/SCtFUM.html |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20010527181244/http://www.aeiveos.com/~bradbury/Authors/Computing/Good-IJ/SCtFUM.html |archive-date = 2001-05-27 }}</ref> <ref name="good1965-stat">{{Citation |first=I. J. |last=Good | url=http://www.stat.vt.edu/tech_reports/2005/GoodTechReport.pdf |title=Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine | year=1965 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120501043117/http://www.stat.vt.edu/tech_reports/2005/GoodTechReport.pdf |archive-date=May 1, 2012 }}</ref> <ref name="solomonoff1985">Solomonoff, R.J. [http://world.std.com/~rjs/timesc.pdf "The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects"], Human Systems Management, Vol 5, pp. 149–153, 1985.</ref> <ref name="drexler1986">[[K. Eric Drexler]], ''[[Engines of Creation]]'', 1986</ref> <ref name="tainter1988">Tainter, Joseph (1988) "[http://monoskop.org/images/a/ab/Tainter_Joseph_The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies.pdf The Collapse of Complex Societies] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150607230212/http://monoskop.org/images/a/ab/Tainter_Joseph_The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies.pdf |date=2015-06-07 }}" (Cambridge University Press)</ref> <ref name="moravec1988">Hans Moravec, ''[[Mind Children]]'', 1988</ref> <ref name="yudkowsky1996">{{cite web |first=Eliezer |last=Yudkowsky |year=1996 |url=http://www.yudkowsky.net/obsolete/singularity.html |title=Staring into the Singularity |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081021051739/http://yudkowsky.net/obsolete/singularity.html |archive-date=2008-10-21}}</ref> <ref name="hawking2018">{{cite book |last=Hawking |first=Stephen |title=Brief Answers to the Big Questions |date=2018 |location=New York |publisher=Bantam Books|isbn=9781984819192 |page=161 |quote=Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent they can presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and intelligence.}}</ref> <ref name="kurzweil1999">Ray Kurzweil, ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', Viking; 1999, {{ISBN|978-0-14-028202-3}}. pp. [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&pg=PA630 30, 32] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095107/https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&pg=PA630 |date=2021-02-15 }}</ref> <ref name="smart1999">{{Citation |title=A Brief History of Intellectual Discussion of Accelerating Change |url=https://www.accelerationwatch.com/history_brief.html |year=1999–2008 |first=John |last=Smart}}</ref> <ref name="Joy2000">{{Citation | first=Bill | last=Joy | author-link=Bill Joy | title=Why The Future Doesn't Need Us | magazine=[[Wired (magazine)|Wired Magazine]] | volume=8 | date=April 2000 | issue=4 | url=https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2/ | access-date=2007-08-07 | isbn=978-0-670-03249-5 | publisher=Viking Adult | archive-date=2009-02-05 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090205150859/http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html | url-status=live |quote=Our most powerful 21st-century technologies – robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech – are threatening to make humans an endangered species.}}</ref> <ref name="dreyfus2000">{{cite book |title=Mind Over Machine |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=e9W9m_4q4pYC&pg=PR14 |page=xiv |year=2000 | author=Dreyfus & Dreyfus| publisher=Simon and Schuster | isbn=9780743205511 }}: 'The truth is that human intelligence can never be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not ourselves "thinking machines" in the sense in which that term is commonly understood.'</ref> <ref name="modis2002">Modis, Theodore (2002) [http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Forecasting_Complexity.pdf "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095052/http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Forecasting_Complexity.pdf |date=2021-02-15 }}, ''Technological Forecasting & Social Change'', 69, No 4, 2002, pp. 377 – 404</ref> <ref name="kurzweil2005-135">Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near, pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005.</ref> <ref name="kurzweil2005-215">Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near, p. 215. Penguin Group, 2005.</ref> <ref name="kurzweil2005">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Singularity Is Near'', Penguin Group, 2005</ref> <ref name="kurzweil2005-9">Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near, p. 9. Penguin Group, 2005</ref> <ref name="kurzweil2005-135136">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Singularity Is Near'', pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005. "So we will be producing about 10<sup>26</sup> to 10<sup>29</sup> cps of nonbiological computation per year in the early 2030s. This is roughly equal to our estimate for the capacity of all living biological human intelligence ... This state of computation in the early 2030s will not represent the Singularity, however, because it does not yet correspond to a profound expansion of our intelligence. By the mid-2040s, however, that one thousand dollars' worth of computation will be equal to 10<sup>26</sup> cps, so the intelligence created per year (at a total cost of about $10<sup>12</sup>) will be about one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today. That ''will'' indeed represent a profound change, and it is for that reason that I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045."</ref> <ref name="huebner2005">Huebner, Jonathan (2005) [http://81.47.175.201/flagship/attachments/InnovationHuebnerTFSC2005.pdf "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150322124157/http://81.47.175.201/flagship/attachments/InnovationHuebnerTFSC2005.pdf |date=2015-03-22 }}, ''Technological Forecasting & Social Change'', October 2005, pp. 980–6</ref> <ref name="episode2006">{{cite web |url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0847969/ |title="The Daily Show" Season 11, Episode 109: Frederick Lane (aired 23 August 2006) |publisher=[[IMDb]] }}</ref> <ref name="modis2006">Modis, Theodore (2006) [http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil_critique.pdf "The Singularity Myth"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095051/http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil_critique.pdf |date=2021-02-15 }}, ''Technological Forecasting & Social Change'', February 2006, pp. 104 - 112</ref> <ref name="krazit2006">{{Cite news |last=Krazit |first=Tom |url=http://news.cnet.com/2100-1006_3-6119618.html |title=Intel pledges 80 cores in five years |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095148/https://www.cnet.com/news/intel-pledges-80-cores-in-five-years/ |archivedate=2021-02-15 |url-status=dead |work=CNET News |date=26 September 2006}}</ref> <ref name="yudkowsky2007">{{Citation | first=Eliezer |last=Yudkowsky |year=2007 |url=http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools |title=The Singularity: Three Major Schools |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181001004531/http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools |archive-date=2018-10-01 }}</ref> <ref name="dooling2008-88">Dooling, Richard. ''[[Rapture for the Geeks|Rapture for the Geeks: When AI Outsmarts IQ]]'' (2008), [https://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA88 p. 88]</ref> <ref name="dooling2008-89">Dooling, Richard. ''[[Rapture for the Geeks|Rapture for the Geeks: When AI Outsmarts IQ]]'' (2008), [https://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA89 p. 89]</ref> <ref name="sandberg-bostrom2008">{{cite web|url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/3854/global-catastrophic-risks-report.pdf|title=Global Catastrophic Risks Survey (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 | publisher=Future of Humanity Institute |url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110516021945/http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/3854/global-catastrophic-risks-report.pdf |archive-date=2011-05-16 |year=2008 |author=Anders Sandberg and NickBostrom}}</ref> <ref name="ieee-lumi">{{cite web |url = https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-luminaries-address-singularity |title = Tech Luminaries Address Singularity |work=IEEE Spectrum |date = 1 June 2008 |access-date = 2011-09-09 |archive-date = 2019-04-30 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190430150019/https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address-singularity |url-status = live }}</ref> <ref name="ieee-whos-who">{{cite web |url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/whos-who-in-the-singularity |title=Who's Who In The Singularity |work=IEEE Spectrum |date=1 Jun 2008 |access-date=2011-09-09 |archive-date=2016-03-12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160312002821/https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/who-is-who-in-the-singularity |last1=Wallich |first1=Paul }}</ref> <ref name="sandberg2009">[[Anders Sandberg|Sandberg, Anders]]. [http://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf An overview of models of technological singularity] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110724225749/http://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf |date=2011-07-24 }}</ref> <ref name="PZMyers2009">{{Citation |url=http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php |title=Singularly Silly Singularity |access-date=2009-04-13 |first1=PZ |last1=Myers |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090228161422/http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php |archive-date=2009-02-28 }}</ref> <ref name="bostrom-risks">{{cite web |url=http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html |title=Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards |website=nickbostrom.com |access-date=2006-01-25 |archive-date=2011-04-27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110427030852/http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html |url-status=live |date=2002}}</ref> <ref name="singularityu">[http://singularityu.org/ Singularity University] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095149/https://su.org/ |date=2021-02-15 }} at its official website</ref> <ref name="theuncertainfuture">{{cite web |url=http://www.theuncertainfuture.com/ |title=The Uncertain Future|work=theuncertainfuture.com; a future technology and world-modeling project |access-date=2010-08-17|archive-date=2019-04-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190430140250/http://theuncertainfuture.com/ |url-status=live}}</ref> <ref name="ford2009">Ford, Martin, ''[http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/ The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100906023409/http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/ |date=2010-09-06 }}'', Acculant Publishing, 2009, {{ISBN|978-1-4486-5981-4}}</ref> <ref name="hall2010">{{cite web |first=Josh |last=Hall |title=Singularity: Nanotech or AI? |year=2010 |url=http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/nano/singularity-nanotech-or-ai |publisher=Hplusmagazine.com |access-date=2011-09-09 |archive-date=2010-12-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101223170126/http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/nano/singularity-nanotech-or-ai |url-status=dead }}</ref> <ref name="chalmers2010">{{Cite journal |last=[[David Chalmers|Chalmers]] |first=David J.|date=2010|title=The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|url=https://consc.net/papers/singularity.pdf}}</ref> <ref name="Allen2011">{{Citation |url = https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/10/12/190773/paul-allen-the-singularity-isnt-near/ |title= Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near |work=MIT Technology Review |date=October 12, 2011 |first1=Paul G. |last1=Allen |first2=Mark |last2=Greaves |access-date=2015-04-12 }}</ref> <ref name="markoff2011">{{cite news | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html | newspaper=The New York Times | first=John | last=Markoff | title=Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software | date=2011-03-04 | access-date=2017-02-25 | archive-date=2021-02-15 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210215095115/https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html | url-status=live }}</ref> }}
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