Editing Energy development (section)

=== {{anchor|Future}} Present and future ===

[[File:World energy consumption outlook.png|thumb|upright=1.8|Outlook—World Energy Consumption by Fuel (as of 2011)<ref>World energy consumption outlook from the International Energy Outlook, published by the U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration</ref><br />
{{legend2|#2589ba}} [[Liquid fuel]]s incl. [[Biofuel]]s
{{legend2|#b57537}} [[Coal]]
{{legend2|#5f943a}} [[Natural Gas]]<br />
{{legend2|#8d3742}} [[Renewable fuel]]s
{{legend2|#87732c}} [[Nuclear fuel]]s
]]

[[File:World energy consumption by region 1970-2025.png|thumb|400px|right|Increasing share of energy consumption by developing nations<ref>Source: [[Energy Information Administration]] – [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html International Energy Outlook 2004] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170727110053/https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf |date=2017-07-27 }}</ref><br />
{{legend2|#4747bf}} [[Industrialized nation]]s<br />
{{legend2|#0e7a0d}} [[Developing nation]]s<br />
{{legend2|#730774}} [[European Economic Community|EE]]/[[Former Soviet Union]]
]]

Extrapolations from current knowledge to the future offer a choice of energy futures.<ref>[http://sapiens.revues.org/index70.html Mandil, C. (2008) "Our energy for the future". ''S.A.P.I.EN.S.'' '''1''' (1) ] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090428015629/http://sapiens.revues.org/index70.html |date=2009-04-28 }}</ref> Predictions parallel the [[Malthusian catastrophe]] hypothesis. Numerous are complex [[scientific modeling|models]] based [[scenario]]s as pioneered by ''[[Limits to Growth]]''. Modeling approaches offer ways to analyze diverse [[strategy|strategies]], and hopefully find a road to rapid and [[sustainable development]] of humanity. Short term [[energy crisis|energy crises]] are also a concern of energy development. Extrapolations lack plausibility, particularly when they predict a continual increase in oil consumption.{{citation needed|date=August 2013}}

Energy production usually requires an energy investment. Drilling for oil or building a wind power plant requires energy. The fossil fuel resources that are left are often increasingly difficult to extract and convert. They may thus require increasingly higher energy investments. If investment is greater than the value of the energy produced by the resource, it is no longer an effective energy source.  These resources are no longer an energy source but may be exploited for value as raw materials.  New technology may lower the energy investment required to extract and convert the resources, although ultimately basic physics sets limits that cannot be exceeded.

Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] transformed [[agriculture]] around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by [[fossil fuels]] in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html|title=Eating Fossil Fuels|work=Resilience|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070611071544/http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html|archive-date=2007-06-11}}</ref> The peaking of world hydrocarbon production ([[peak oil]]) may lead to significant changes, and require sustainable methods of production.<ref>[http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil Peak Oil: the threat to our food security] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090714220834/http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil |date=July 14, 2009 }} retrieved 28 May 2009</ref> One vision of a sustainable energy future involves all human structures on the earth's surface (i.e., buildings, vehicles and roads) doing [[artificial photosynthesis]] (using sunlight to split water as a source of hydrogen and absorbing carbon dioxide to make fertilizer) efficiently than plants.<ref>Faunce TA, Lubitz W, Rutherford AW, MacFarlane D, Moore, GF, Yang P, Nocera DG, Moore TA, Gregory DH, Fukuzumi S, Yoon KB, Armstrong FA, Wasielewski MR, Styring S. ‘Energy and Environment Case for a Global Project on Artificial Photosynthesis.’ Energy and Environmental Science 2013, 6 (3), 695 - 698 {{doi|10.1039/C3EE00063J}} {{cite journal |title=Energy and environment policy case for a global project on artificial photosynthesis |journal=Energy & Environmental Science |volume=6 |issue=3 |pages=695–698 |doi=10.1039/C3EE00063J |date=2013-02-20 |last1=Styring |first1=Stenbjorn |last2=Wasielewski |first2=Michael R. |last3=Armstrong |first3=Fraser A. |last4=Yoon |first4=Kyung Byung |last5=Fukuzumi |first5=Shunichi |last6=Gregory |first6=Duncan H. |last7=Moore |first7=Tom A. |last8=Nocera |first8=Daniel G. |last9=Yang |first9=Peidong |last10=Moore |first10=Gary F. |last11=MacFarlane |first11=Douglas |last12=Rutherford |first12=A. W. (Bill) |last13=Lubitz |first13=Wolfgang |author-link13=Wolfgang Lubitz |last14=Faunce |first14=Thomas A. |bibcode=2013EnEnS...6..695F }} (accessed 13 March 2013)</ref>

With contemporary [[space industry]]'s economic activity<ref name="Bromberg2000-1">{{cite book|author=Joan Lisa Bromberg|title=NASA and the Space Industry|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-UebVg1YqsoC&pg=PA1|access-date=10 June 2011|date=October 2000|publisher=JHU Press|isbn=978-0-8018-6532-9|page=1}}</ref><ref name="Schrogl2010">{{cite book|author=Kai-Uwe Schrogl|title=Yearbook on Space Policy 2008/2009: Setting New Trends|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=gcZwzmPnqxkC&pg=PA49|access-date=10 June 2011|date=2 August 2010|publisher=Springer|isbn=978-3-7091-0317-3|page=49}}</ref> and the related [[private spaceflight]], with the [[manufacturing industries]], that go into Earth's orbit or beyond, delivering them to those regions will require further energy development.<ref>Propulsion Techniques: Action and Reaction edited by Peter J. Turchi. [https://books.google.com/books?id=-o9TJa2F4qsC&pg=PA341 p341]</ref><ref>Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions. Edited by A. Pittock</ref> Researchers have contemplated [[space-based solar power]] for collecting solar power for use on Earth. Space-based solar power has been in research since the early 1970s. Space-based solar power would require construction of collector structures in space. The advantage over ground-based solar power is higher intensity of light, and no weather to interrupt power collection.