Editing Earthquake prediction (section)

=== 1990: New Madrid, U.S. (Browning) ===
{{anchor|New Madrid}}{{anchor|Browning}}
{{further|Tidal triggering of earthquakes}}

[[Iben Browning]] (a scientist with a Ph.D. degree in zoology and training as a biophysicist, but no experience in geology, geophysics, or seismology) was an "independent business consultant" who forecast long-term climate trends for businesses.{{efn|1={{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993}} (USGS Circular 1083) is the most comprehensive, and most thorough, study of the Browning prediction, and appears to be the main source of most other reports. In the following notes, where an item is found in this document the pdf pagination is shown in brackets.}} He supported the idea (scientifically unproven) that volcanoes and earthquakes are more likely to be triggered when the tidal force of the Sun and the Moon coincide to exert maximum stress on the [[Earth's crust]] ([[syzygy (astronomy)|syzygy]]).{{efn|1=A report on Browning's prediction cited over a dozen studies of possible tidal triggering of earthquakes, but concluded that "conclusive evidence of such a correlation has not been found". It also found that Browning's identification of a particular high tide as triggering a particular earthquake "difficult to justify".<ref>{{Harvnb|AHWG|1990|p=10}} {{Harv|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=54 [62]}}.</ref>}} Having calculated when these tidal forces maximize, Browning then "projected"<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|loc=<sup>{{dagger}}</sup> footnote, p. 4 [12]}} "Browning preferred the term projection, which he defined as determining the time of a future event based on calculation. He considered 'prediction' to be akin to tea-leaf reading or other forms of psychic foretelling." See also Browning's own comment on p. 36 [44].</ref> what areas were most at risk for a large earthquake. An area he mentioned frequently was the [[New Madrid seismic zone]] at the southeast corner of the state of [[Missouri]], the site of three very large earthquakes in 1811–12, which he coupled with the date of 3 December 1990.

Browning's reputation and perceived credibility were boosted when he claimed in various promotional flyers and advertisements to have predicted (among various other events{{efn|1=Including "a 50/50 probability that the federal government of the U.S. will fall in 1992."<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=39 [47]}}.</ref>}}) the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989.<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|pp=9–11 [17–19]}}, and see various documents in Appendix A, including ''The Browning Newsletter'' for 21 November 1989 (p. 26 [34]).</ref> The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) formed an Ad Hoc Working Group (AHWG) to evaluate Browning's prediction. Its report (issued 18 October 1990) specifically rejected the claim of a successful prediction of the Loma Prieta earthquake.<ref>{{Harvnb|AHWG|1990|p=III}} {{Harv|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=47 [55]}}.</ref> A transcript of his talk in San Francisco on 10 October showed he had said: "there will probably be several earthquakes around the world, Richter 6+, and there may be a volcano or two" – which, on a global scale, is about average for a week – with no mention of any earthquake in California.<ref>{{Harvnb|AHWG|1990|p=30}} {{Harv|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=64 [72]}}.</ref>

Though the AHWG report disproved both Browning's claims of prior success and the basis of his "projection", it made little impact after a year of continued claims of a successful prediction. Browning's prediction received the support of geophysicist David Stewart,{{efn|1=Previously involved in a psychic prediction of an earthquake for North Carolina in 1975,<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=13 [21]}}</ref> Stewart sent a 13 page memo to a number of colleagues extolling Browning's supposed accomplishments, including predicting Loma Prieta.<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|p=29 [37]}}.</ref>}} and the tacit endorsement of many public authorities in their preparations for a major disaster, all of which was amplified by massive exposure in the news media.<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|loc=throughout}}.</ref> Nothing happened on 3 December,<ref>{{Harvnb|Tierney|1993|p=11}}.</ref> and Browning died of a heart attack seven months later.<ref>{{Harvnb|Spence|Herrmann|Johnston|Reagor|1993|pp=4 [12], 40 [48]}}.</ref>